A Hybrid Neural Network and Traditional Approach for Forecasting Lumpy Demand

Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

Application of a New Hybrid Optimization Algorithm on Cluster Analysis

Clustering techniques have received attention in many areas including engineering, medicine, biology and data mining. The purpose of clustering is to group together data points, which are close to one another. The K-means algorithm is one of the most widely used techniques for clustering. However, K-means has two shortcomings: dependency on the initial state and convergence to local optima and global solutions of large problems cannot found with reasonable amount of computation effort. In order to overcome local optima problem lots of studies done in clustering. This paper is presented an efficient hybrid evolutionary optimization algorithm based on combining Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), called PSO-ACO, for optimally clustering N object into K clusters. The new PSO-ACO algorithm is tested on several data sets, and its performance is compared with those of ACO, PSO and K-means clustering. The simulation results show that the proposed evolutionary optimization algorithm is robust and suitable for handing data clustering.

Determination of Sequential Best Replies in N-player Games by Genetic Algorithms

An iterative algorithm is proposed and tested in Cournot Game models, which is based on the convergence of sequential best responses and the utilization of a genetic algorithm for determining each player-s best response to a given strategy profile of its opponents. An extra outer loop is used, to address the problem of finite accuracy, which is inherent in genetic algorithms, since the set of feasible values in such an algorithm is finite. The algorithm is tested in five Cournot models, three of which have convergent best replies sequence, one with divergent sequential best replies and one with “local NE traps"[14], where classical local search algorithms fail to identify the Nash Equilibrium. After a series of simulations, we conclude that the algorithm proposed converges to the Nash Equilibrium, with any level of accuracy needed, in all but the case where the sequential best replies process diverges.

Changes of Poultry Meat Chemical Composition, in Relationship with Lighting Schedule

The paper is included within the framework of a complex research program, which was initiated from the hypothesis arguing on the existence of a correlation between pineal indolic and peptide hormones and the somatic development rhythm, including thus the epithalamium-epiphysis complex involvement. At birds, pineal gland contains a circadian oscillator, playing a main role in the temporal organization of the cerebral functions. The secretion of pineal indolic hormones is characterized by a high endogenous rhythmic alternation, modulated by the light/darkness (L/D) succession and by temperature as well. The research has been carried out using 100 chicken broilers - “Ross" commercial hybrid, randomly allocated in two experimental batches: Lc batch, reared under a 12L/12D lighting schedule and Lexp batch, which was photic pinealectomised through continuous exposition to light (150 lux, 24 hours, 56 days). Chemical and physical features of the meat issued from breast fillet and thighs muscles have been studied, determining the dry matter, proteins, fat, collagen, salt content and pH value, as well. Besides the variations of meat chemical composition in relation with lighting schedule, other parameters have been studied: live weight dynamics, feed intake and somatic development degree. The achieved results became significant since chickens have 7 days of age, some variations of the studied parameters being registered, revealing that the pineal gland physiologic activity, in relation with the lighting schedule, could be interpreted through the monitoring of the somatic development technological parameters, usually studied within the chicken broilers rearing aviculture practice.

The Malacca Empire: Sayings of Prophet Muhammad in Sulalat Al-Salatin

In the fifteenth century, the Malacca Empire emerged as the centre of Islamic civilization in the Malay Archipelago. The history had been recorded in Sulalat Al-Salatin, an important literary source about the genealogy of all Kings in Malacca. The objective of this study was to analyze the understanding of sayings from Prophet Muhammad among Malays in Malacca during the fifteenth century through all of the hadith quoted in Sulalat Al-Salatin. This study used content analysis methodology to validate the sayings where all of them were critically analyzed and compared with the classical hadith sources from prominent Muslim scholars. As a result, only two out of the four quotations were considered as authentic sayings of Prophet Muhammad. This study also showed the importance of the palace as the centre of the Islamic education system and the role played by Muslim preachers from outside of Malacca to propagate Islam in Malacca.

Concurrent Testing of ADC for Embedded System

Compaction testing methods allow at-speed detecting of errors while possessing low cost of implementation. Owing to this distinctive feature, compaction methods have been widely used for built-in testing, as well as external testing. In the latter case, the bandwidth requirements to the automated test equipment employed are relaxed which reduces the overall cost of testing. Concurrent compaction testing methods use operational signals to detect misbehavior of the device under test and do not require input test stimuli. These methods have been employed for digital systems only. In the present work, we extend the use of compaction methods for concurrent testing of analog-to-digital converters. We estimate tolerance bounds for the result of compaction and evaluate the aliasing rate.

Indoor and Outdoor Concentration of Particulate Matter at Domestic Homes

Particulate matter (PM) in ambient air is responsible for adverse health effects in adults and children. Relatively little is known about the concentrations, sources and health effects of PM in indoor air. A monitoring study was conducted in Ankara by three campaigns in order to measure PM levels in indoor and outdoor environments to identify and quantify associations between sources and concentrations. Approximately 82 homes (1st campaign for 42, 2nd campaign for 12, and 3rd campaign for 28), three rooms (living room, baby-s room and living room used as a baby-s room) and outdoor ambient at each home were sampled with Grimm Environmental Dust Monitoring (EDM) 107, during different seasonal periods of 2011 and 2012. In this study, the relationship between indoor and outdoor PM levels for particulate matter less than 10 micrometer (.m) (PM10), particulate matter less than 2.5.m (PM2.5) and particulate matter less than 1.0.m (PM1) were investigated. The mean concentration of PM10, PM2.5, and PM1.0 at living room used as baby-s room is higher than living and baby-s room (or bedroom) for three sampling campaigns. It is concluded that the household activities and environmental conditions are very important for PM concentrations in the indoor environments during the sampling periods. The amount of smokers, being near a main street and/or construction activities increased the PM concentration. This study is based on the assessment the relationship between indoor and outdoor PM levels and the household activities and environmental conditions

Memory Leak Detection in Distributed System

Due to memory leaks, often-valuable system memory gets wasted and denied for other processes thereby affecting the computational performance. If an application-s memory usage exceeds virtual memory size, it can leads to system crash. Current memory leak detection techniques for clusters are reactive and display the memory leak information after the execution of the process (they detect memory leak only after it occur). This paper presents a Dynamic Memory Monitoring Agent (DMMA) technique. DMMA framework is a dynamic memory leak detection, that detects the memory leak while application is in execution phase, when memory leak in any process in the cluster is identified by DMMA it gives information to the end users to enable them to take corrective actions and also DMMA submit the affected process to healthy node in the system. Thus provides reliable service to the user. DMMA maintains information about memory consumption of executing processes and based on this information and critical states, DMMA can improve reliability and efficaciousness of cluster computing.

Generalized Predictive Control of Batch Polymerization Reactor

This paper describes the application of a model predictive controller to the problem of batch reactor temperature control. Although a great deal of work has been done to improve reactor throughput using batch sequence control, the control of the actual reactor temperature remains a difficult problem for many operators of these processes. Temperature control is important as many chemical reactions are sensitive to temperature for formation of desired products. This controller consist of two part (1) a nonlinear control method GLC (Global Linearizing Control) to create a linear model of system and (2) a Model predictive controller used to obtain optimal input control sequence. The temperature of reactor is tuned to track a predetermined temperature trajectory that applied to the batch reactor. To do so two input signals, electrical powers and the flow of coolant in the coil are used. Simulation results show that the proposed controller has a remarkable performance for tracking reference trajectory while at the same time it is robust against noise imposed to system output.

Electric Field and Potential Distributions along Surface of Silicone Rubber Polymer Insulators Using Finite Element Method

This paper presents the simulation the results of electric field and potential distributions along surface of silicone rubber polymer insulators. Near the same leakage distance subjected to 15 kV in 50 cycle salt fog ageing test, alternate sheds silicone rubber polymer insulator showed better contamination performance than straight sheds silicone rubber polymer insulator. Severe surface ageing was observed on the straight sheds insulator. The objective of this work is to elucidate that electric field distribution along straight sheds insulator higher than alternate shed insulator in salt fog ageing test. Finite element method (FEM) is adopted for this work. The simulation results confirmed the experimental data, as well.

The Best Efficiency Point of the Performance of Solar Cell Panel System for Pumping Water at Various Lifting Heads Using 100 W Motor- Pump Unit

This study was carried out experimentally and analytically about the performance of solar cell panel system for operating the pump coupled by dc-motor. The solar cell panel with total area 1.9848 m2 consists of three modules of 80 Wp each. The small centrifugal pump powered by dc-motor is operated to lift water from 1m to 7m heads in sequence and gives the amount of water pumped over the whole day from 08.00 to 16.00 h are 11988, 10851, 8874, 7695, 5760, 3600, 2340 L/d respectively. The hourly global solar radiation during the day is an average of 506 W/m2. This study also presents the I-V characteristics of the panel at global radiations 200, 400, 600, 800 and 1000 W/m2 matched with the operation of the pump at the above lifting heads. It proves that the only solar radiations 800 and 1000 W/m2 could provide lifting head from 1m to 7m. The analysis shows the best efficiency point of the performance of solar cell panel system occurs at the pumping head 2.89 m.

A Novel Low Power, High Speed 14 Transistor CMOS Full Adder Cell with 50% Improvement in Threshold Loss Problem

Full adders are important components in applications such as digital signal processors (DSP) architectures and microprocessors. In addition to its main task, which is adding two numbers, it participates in many other useful operations such as subtraction, multiplication, division,, address calculation,..etc. In most of these systems the adder lies in the critical path that determines the overall speed of the system. So enhancing the performance of the 1-bit full adder cell (the building block of the adder) is a significant goal.Demands for the low power VLSI have been pushing the development of aggressive design methodologies to reduce the power consumption drastically. To meet the growing demand, we propose a new low power adder cell by sacrificing the MOS Transistor count that reduces the serious threshold loss problem, considerably increases the speed and decreases the power when compared to the static energy recovery full (SERF) adder. So a new improved 14T CMOS l-bit full adder cell is presented in this paper. Results show 50% improvement in threshold loss problem, 45% improvement in speed and considerable power consumption over the SERF adder and other different types of adders with comparable performance.

How CATV Survive in the Era of Convergence?

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the case of the U.S. Pivot and to suggest an appropriate model including entry strategies and success factors for QPS of Cable TV. The telecommunication companies have been operating QPS including IPTV service, which enables them to cross over broadcasting areas. Due to this circumstance, the Cable TV operators are now concerned and are planning to add QPS with the mobile service. Based on the Porter's five forces model, an analytical framework has been proposed to MVNO in Cable TV industry in the United States. As a result of this study, MVNO in Cable TV industry has to have a clear killer application with their sufficient contents. Subsequently, the direction of the future Cable TV industry is proposed.

Wavelet Enhanced CCA for Minimization of Ocular and Muscle Artifacts in EEG

Electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings are often contaminated with ocular and muscle artifacts. In this paper, the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used as blind source separation (BSS) technique (BSS-CCA) to decompose the artifact contaminated EEG into component signals. We combine the BSSCCA technique with wavelet filtering approach for minimizing both ocular and muscle artifacts simultaneously, and refer the proposed method as wavelet enhanced BSS-CCA. In this approach, after careful visual inspection, the muscle artifact components are discarded and ocular artifact components are subjected to wavelet filtering to retain high frequency cerebral information, and then clean EEG is reconstructed. The performance of the proposed wavelet enhanced BSS-CCA method is tested on real EEG recordings contaminated with ocular and muscle artifacts, for which power spectral density is used as a quantitative measure. Our results suggest that the proposed hybrid approach minimizes ocular and muscle artifacts effectively, minimally affecting underlying cerebral activity in EEG recordings.

Speed Sensorless Direct Torque Control of a PMSM Drive using Space Vector Modulation Based MRAS and Stator Resistance Estimator

This paper presents a speed sensorless direct torque control scheme using space vector modulation (DTC-SVM) for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) drive based a Model Reference Adaptive System (MRAS) algorithm and stator resistance estimator. The MRAS is utilized to estimate speed and stator resistance and compensate the effects of parameter variation on stator resistance, which makes flux and torque estimation more accurate and insensitive to parameter variation. In other hand the use of SVM method reduces the torque ripple while achieving a good dynamic response. Simulation results are presented and show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Flat Miniature Heat Pipes for Electronics Cooling: State of the Art, Experimental and Theoretical Analysis

An experimental study is realized in order to verify the Mini Heat Pipe (MHP) concept for cooling high power dissipation electronic components and determines the potential advantages of constructing mini channels as an integrated part of a flat heat pipe. A Flat Mini Heat Pipe (FMHP) prototype including a capillary structure composed of parallel rectangular microchannels is manufactured and a filling apparatus is developed in order to charge the FMHP. The heat transfer improvement obtained by comparing the heat pipe thermal resistance to the heat conduction thermal resistance of a copper plate having the same dimensions as the tested FMHP is demonstrated for different heat input flux rates. Moreover, the heat transfer in the evaporator and condenser sections are analyzed, and heat transfer laws are proposed. In the theoretical part of this work, a detailed mathematical model of a FMHP with axial microchannels is developed in which the fluid flow is considered along with the heat and mass transfer processes during evaporation and condensation. The model is based on the equations for the mass, momentum and energy conservation, which are written for the evaporator, adiabatic, and condenser zones. The model, which permits to simulate several shapes of microchannels, can predict the maximum heat transfer capacity of FMHP, the optimal fluid mass, and the flow and thermal parameters along the FMHP. The comparison between experimental and model results shows the good ability of the numerical model to predict the axial temperature distribution along the FMHP.

A New Similarity Measure Based On Edge Counting

In the field of concepts, the measure of Wu and Palmer [1] has the advantage of being simple to implement and have good performances compared to the other similarity measures [2]. Nevertheless, the Wu and Palmer measure present the following disadvantage: in some situations, the similarity of two elements of an IS-A ontology contained in the neighborhood exceeds the similarity value of two elements contained in the same hierarchy. This situation is inadequate within the information retrieval framework. To overcome this problem, we propose a new similarity measure based on the Wu and Palmer measure. Our objective is to obtain realistic results for concepts not located in the same way. The obtained results show that compared to the Wu and Palmer approach, our measure presents a profit in terms of relevance and execution time.

Comparative Performance and Microbial Community of Single-phase and Two-phase Anaerobic Systems Co-Digesting Cassava Pulpand Pig Manure

In this study, we illustrated the performance and microbial community of single- and two-phase systems anaerobically co-digesting cassava pulp and pig manure. The results showed that the volatile solid reduction and biogas productivity of two-phase CSTR were 66 ± 4% and 2000 ± 210 ml l-1 d-1, while those of singlephase CSTR were 59 ± 1% and 1670 ± 60 ml l-1 d-1, respectively. Codigestion in two-phase CSTR gave higher 12% solid degradation and 25% methane production than single-phase CSTR. Phylogenetic analysis of 16S rDNA clone library revealed that the Bacteroidetes were the most abundant group, followed by the Clostridia in singlephase CSTR. In hydrolysis/acidification reactor of two-phase system, the bacteria within the phylum Firmicutes, especially Clostridium, Eubacteriaceae and Lactobacillus were the dominant phylogenetic groups. Among the Archaea, Methanosaeta sp. was the exclusive predominant in both digesters while the relative abundance of Methanosaeta sp. and Methanospirillum hungatei differed between the two systems.

Evaluation of Some Chemical Parameters as Potential Determinants of Fresh Water Snails with Special Reference to Medically Important Snails in Egypt

Seasonal survey of freshwater snails in different water courses in Egypt during two successive years included 13 snail species. They represented by Biomphalaria alexandrina, Bulinus truncatus, Physa acuta, Helisoma duryi, Lymnaea natalensis, Planorbis pantries, Cleopatra bulimoides, Lanistes carinatus, Bellamya unicolor, Melanoides tuberculata, Theodoxus niloticus, Succinia cleopatra and Valvata nilotica. B. alexandrina was most abundant during autumn and spring represented by 26and14 snails/site, respectively. B. truncatus was most abundant during winter (7.7and3.6snails/site) of the two years, respectively. L. natalensis was represented by 7snails/site in summer. The tolerance of different snail species to the chemical elements was determined seasonally and correlated to their abundance. In spring, autumn and winter, B. alexandrina was significantly found to live under the highest level of Pb, Cd,Cu, Na, K and Ca concentrations than the other species (p

A Laplace Transform Dual-Reciprocity Boundary Element Method for Axisymmetric Elastodynamic Problems

A dual-reciprocity boundary element method is presented for the numerical solution of a class of axisymmetric elastodynamic problems. The domain integrals that arise in the integrodifferential formulation are converted to line integrals by using the dual-reciprocity method together suitably constructed interpolating functions. The second order time derivatives of the displacement in the governing partial differential equations are suppressed by using Laplace transformation. In the Laplace transform domain, the problem under consideration is eventually reduced to solving a system of linear algebraic equations. Once the linear algebraic equations are solved, the displacement and stress fields in the physical domain can be recovered by using a numerical technique for inverting Laplace transforms.