Abstract: Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key
issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of
modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy
patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no
demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large
variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting
methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy.
In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns
of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed,
which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a
traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the
described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to
forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional
recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero
demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed
approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using
Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered
perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network
and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were
applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak
Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The
results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed
mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.