Abstract: A model reference adaptive control and a fixed gain
LQR control were implemented in the height controller of a quadrotor
that has parametric uncertainties due to the act of picking up an
object of unknown dimension and mass. It is shown that an adaptive
controller, unlike the fixed gain controller, is capable of ensuring a
stable tracking performance under such condition, although adaptive
control suffers from several limitations. The combination of both
adaptive and fixed gain control in the controller architecture can
result in an enhanced tracking performance in the presence parametric
uncertainties.
Abstract: A capacity spectrum method (CSM), one of methodologies to evaluate seismic fragilities of building structures, has been long recognized as the most convenient method, even if it contains several limitations to predict the seismic response of structures of interest. This paper proposes the procedure to estimate seismic fragility curves using an incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) rather than the method adopting a CSM. To achieve the research purpose, this study compares the seismic fragility curves of a 5-story reinforced concrete (RC) moment frame obtained from both methods; an IDA method and aCSM. Both seismic fragility curves are similar in slight and moderate damage states whereas the fragility curve obtained from the IDA method presents less variation (or uncertainties) in extensive and complete damage states. This is due to the fact that the IDA method can properly capture the structural response beyond yielding rather than the CSM and can directly calculate higher mode effects. From these observations, the CSM could overestimate seismic vulnerabilities of the studied structure in extensive or complete damage states.
Abstract: This paper proposes the designing direct adaptive
neural controller to apply for a class of a nonlinear pendulum
dynamic system. The radial basis function (RBF) neural adaptive
controller is robust in presence of external and internal uncertainties.
Both the effectiveness of the controller and robustness against
disturbances are importance of this paper. The simulation results
show the promising performance of the proposed controller.
Abstract: Electricity is recognized as fundamental to
industrialization and improving the quality of life of the people.
Harnessing the immense untapped hydropower potential in Tripura
region opens avenues for growth and provides an opportunity to
improve the well-being of the people of the region, while making
substantial contribution to the national economy. Gumti hydro power
plant generates power to mitigate the crisis of power in Tripura,
India. The first unit of hydro power plant (5MW) was commissioned
in June 1976 & another two units of 5 MW was commissioned
simultaneously. But out of 15MW capacity at present only 8MW-
9MW power is produced from Gumti hydro power plant during rainy
season. But during lean season the production reduces to 0.5MW due
to shortage of water. Now, it is essential to implement some
mitigation measures so that the further atrocities can be prevented
and originality will be possible to restore. The decision making
ability of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Concordance
Analysis Techniques (CAT) are utilized to identify the better decision
or solution to the present problem. Some related attributes are
identified by the method of surveying within the experts and the
available reports and literatures. Similar criteria are removed and
ultimately seven relevant ones are identified. All the attributes are
compared with each other and rated accordingly to their importance
over the other with the help of Pair wise Comparison Matrix. In the
present investigation different mitigation measures are identified and
compared to find the best suitable alternative which can solve the
present uncertainties involving the existence of the Gumti Hydro
Power Plant.
Abstract: The reachable set bounding estimation for distributed
delay systems with disturbances is a new problem. In this paper,we
consider this problem subject to not only time varying delay and
polytopic uncertainties but also distributed delay systems which is
not studied fully untill now. we can obtain improved non-ellipsoidal
reachable set estimation for neural networks with time-varying delay
by the maximal Lyapunov-Krasovskii fuctional which is constructed
as the pointwise maximum of a family of Lyapunov-Krasovskii
fuctionals corresponds to vertexes of uncertain polytope.On the other
hand,matrix inequalities containing only one scalar and Matlabs
LMI Toolbox is utilized to give a non-ellipsoidal description of the
reachable set.finally,numerical examples are given to illustrate the
existing results.
Abstract: Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.
Abstract: The strength of reinforced concrete depends on the member dimensions and material properties. The properties of concrete and steel materials are not constant but random variables. The variability of concrete strength is due to batching errors, variations in mixing, cement quality uncertainties, differences in the degree of compaction and disparity in curing. Similarly, the variability of steel strength is attributed to the manufacturing process, rolling conditions, characteristics of base material, uncertainties in chemical composition, and the microstructure-property relationships. To account for such uncertainties, codes of practice for reinforced concrete design impose resistance factors to ensure structural reliability over the useful life of the structure. In this investigation, the effects of reductions in concrete and reinforcing steel strengths from the nominal values, beyond those accounted for in the structural design codes, on the structural reliability are assessed. The considered limit states are flexure, shear and axial compression based on the ACI 318-11 structural concrete building code. Structural safety is measured in terms of a reliability index. Probabilistic resistance and load models are compiled from the available literature. The study showed that there is a wide variation in the reliability index for reinforced concrete members designed for flexure, shear or axial compression, especially when the live-to-dead load ratio is low. Furthermore, variations in concrete strength have minor effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and sever effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. On the other hand, changes in steel yield strength have great effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and mild effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. Based on the outcome, it can be concluded that the reliability of beams is sensitive to changes in the yield strength of the steel reinforcement, whereas the reliability of columns is sensitive to variations in the concrete strength. Since the embedded target reliability in structural design codes results in lower structural safety in beams than in columns, large reductions in material strengths compromise the structural safety of beams much more than they affect columns.
Abstract: Transient plane source method has been used to
measure the thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity of a compact
isostatic electroceramics at room temperature. The samples were fired
at temperatures from 100 up to 1320 degrees Celsius in steps of
50. Bulk density and specific heat capacity were also measured with
their corresponding standard uncertainties. The results were compared
with further thermal analysis (dilatometry and thermogravimetry).
Structural processes during firing were discussed.
Abstract: In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.
Abstract: Active Front Steering system (AFS) provides an electronically controlled superposition of an angle to the steering wheel angle. This additional degree of freedom enables a continuous and driving-situation dependent on adaptation of the steering characteristics. In an active steering system, there needs be no fixed relationship between the steering wheel and the angle of the road wheels. Not only can the effective steering ratio be varied with speed, for example, but also the road wheel angles can be controlled by a combination of driver and computer inputs. Features like steering comfort, effort and steering dynamics are optimized and stabilizing steering interventions can be performed. In contrast to the conventional stability control, the yaw rate was fed back to AFS controller and the stability performance was optimized with Sliding Mode control (SMC) method. In addition, tire uncertainties have been taken into account in SM controller to provide the control robustness. In this paper, 3-DOF nonlinear model is used to design the AFS controller and 8-DOF nonlinear model is used to model the controlled vehicle.
Abstract: Uncertainty of system operating conditions is one of the causative reasons which may render to the instability of a transmission system. For that reason, accurate assessment of transmission reliability margin (TRM) is essential to ensure effective power transfer between areas during the occurrence of system uncertainties. The power transfer is also called as the available transfer capability (ATC) which is the information required by the utilities and marketers to instigate selling and buying the electric energy. This paper proposes a computationally effective approach to estimate TRM and ATC by considering the uncertainties of system cascading collapse and transmission line outages. In accordance to the results that have been obtained, the proposed method is essential for the transmission providers which could help the power marketers and planning sectors in the operation and reserving transmission services based on the ATC calculated.
Abstract: Over the past few decades, power system industry in many developing and developed countries has gone through a restructuring process of the industry where they are moving towards deregulated power industry. This situation will lead to competition among the generation and distribution companies to provide quality and efficient production of electric energy, which will reduce the price of electricity. Therefore it is important to obtain an accurate value of the available transfer capability (ATC) and transmission reliability margin (TRM) in order to ensure the effective power transfer between areas during the occurrence of uncertainties in the system. In this paper, the TRM and ATC is determined by taking into consideration the uncertainties of the system operating condition and system cascading collapse by applying the bootstrap technique. A case study of the IEEE RTS-79 is employed to verify the robustness of the technique proposed in the determination of TRM and ATC.
Abstract: We consider nonlinear uncertain systems such that a
priori information of the uncertainties is not available. For such
systems, we assume that the upper bound of the uncertainties is
represented as a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind and we
propose an adaptation law that is capable of estimating the upper
bound and design a continuous robust control which renders nonlinear
uncertain systems ultimately bounded.
Abstract: Due to uncertainty of wind velocity, wind power generators don’t have deterministic output power. Utilizing wind power generation and thermal power plants together create new concerns for operation engineers of power systems. In this paper, a model is presented to implement the uncertainty of load and generated wind power which can be utilized in power system operation planning. Stochastic behavior of parameters is simulated by generating scenarios that can be solved by deterministic method. A mixed-integer linear programming method is used for solving deterministic generation scheduling problem. The proposed approach is applied to a 12-unit test system including 10 thermal units and 2 wind farms. The results show affectivity of piecewise linear model in unit commitment problems. Also using linear programming causes a considerable reduction in calculation times and guarantees convergence to the global optimum. Neglecting the uncertainty of wind velocity causes higher cost assessment of generation scheduling.
Abstract: This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a sensorless backstepping control of induction motor (IM) associated with three levels neutral clamped (NPC) inverter. First, the backstepping approach is designed to steer the flux and speed variables to theirs references and to compensate the uncertainties. A Lyapunov theory is used and it demonstrates that the dynamic trajectories tracking are asymptotically stable. Second, we estimate the rotor flux and speed by using the adaptive Luenberger observer (ALO). Simulation results are provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed approach in high and low speeds and load torque disturbance.
Abstract: Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.
Abstract: The optimal control is one of the possible controllers
for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using
the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method .
Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative
disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that
the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters
difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability
calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy
logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it
operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial
decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time.
This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control
of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm.
A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the
linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model
of Goodwin.
Abstract: This paper proposes an adaptive sliding mode
controller which combines adaptive control and sliding
mode control to control a nonlinear robotic manipulator
with uncertain parameters. We use an adaptive algorithm
based on the concept of sliding mode control to alleviate the
chattering phenomenon of control input. Adaptive laws are
developed to obtain the gain of switching input and the
boundary layer parameters. The stability and convergence
of the robotic manipulator control system are guaranteed
by applying the Lyapunov theorem. Simulation results
demonstrate that the chattering of control input can be
alleviated effectively. The proposed controller scheme can
assure robustness against a large class of uncertainties and
achieve good trajectory tracking performance.
Abstract: Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed