Abstract: This study presents a simple inverse heat transfer procedure for predicting the wall erosion and the time-varying thickness of the protective bank that covers the inside surface of the refractory brick wall of a melting furnace. The direct problem is solved by using the Finite-Volume model. The melting/solidification process is modeled using the enthalpy method. The inverse procedure rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt method combined with the Broyden method. The effect of the location of the temperature sensors and of the measurement noise on the inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of the temperature sensor.
Abstract: We present the concept and scientific methods and algorithms of our computation system called ATOMIC MATTERS. This is the first presentation of the new computer package, that allows its user to describe physical properties of atomic localized electron systems subject to electromagnetic interactions. Our solution applies to situations where an unclosed electron 2p/3p/3d/4d/5d/4f/5f subshell interacts with an electrostatic potential of definable symmetry and external magnetic field. Our methods are based on Crystal Electric Field (CEF) approach, which takes into consideration the electrostatic ligands field as well as the magnetic Zeeman effect. The application allowed us to predict macroscopic properties of materials such as: Magnetic, spectral and calorimetric as a result of physical properties of their fine electronic structure. We emphasize the importance of symmetry of charge surroundings of atom/ion, spin-orbit interactions (spin-orbit coupling) and the use of complex number matrices in the definition of the Hamiltonian. Calculation methods, algorithms and convention recalculation tools collected in ATOMIC MATTERS were chosen to permit the prediction of magnetic and spectral properties of materials in isostructural series.
Abstract: Experimental and analytical studies were accomplished to examine the structural behavior of precast foamed concrete sandwich panel (PFCSP) under vertical in-plane shear load. PFCSP full-scale specimens with total number of six were developed with varying heights to study an important parameter slenderness ratio (H/t). The production technique of PFCSP and the procedure of test setup were described. The results obtained from the experimental tests were analysed in the context of in-plane shear strength capacity, load-deflection profile, load-strain relationship, slenderness ratio, shear cracking patterns and mode of failure. Analytical study of finite element analysis was implemented and the theoretical calculations of the ultimate in-plane shear strengths using the adopted ACI318 equation for reinforced concrete wall were determined aimed at predicting the in-plane shear strength of PFCSP. The decrease in slenderness ratio from 24 to 14 showed an increase of 26.51% and 21.91% on the ultimate in-plane shear strength capacity as obtained experimentally and in FEA models, respectively. The experimental test results, FEA models data and theoretical calculation values were compared and provided a significant agreement with high degree of accuracy. Therefore, on the basis of the results obtained, PFCSP wall has the potential use as an alternative to the conventional load-bearing wall system.
Abstract: In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that
resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake
fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and
caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce
the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is
a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The
parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors
influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition,
including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance,
and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing
to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake
characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak
ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are
solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they
cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake
records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model
parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition
ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in
an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition
events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such
correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.
Abstract: This study presents an inverse analysis for predicting the thermal conductivities and the heat flux of a high-temperature metallurgical reactor simultaneously. Once these thermal parameters are predicted, the time-varying thickness of the protective phase-change bank that covers the inside surface of the brick walls of a metallurgical reactor can be calculated. The enthalpy method is used to solve the melting/solidification process of the protective bank. The inverse model rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined with the Broyden method (BM). A statistical analysis for the thermal parameter estimation is carried out. The effect of the position of the temperature sensors, total number of measurements and measurement noise on the accuracy of inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of temperature sensors.
Abstract: Modeling of hydrogen fueled engine (H2ICE) injection system is a very important tool that can be used for explaining or predicting the effect of advanced injection strategies on combustion and emissions. In this paper, a common rail injection system (CRIS) is proposed for 4-strokes 4-cylinders hydrogen fueled engine with port injection feeding system (PIH2ICE). For this system, a numerical one-dimensional gas dynamic model is developed considering single injection event for each injector per a cycle. One-dimensional flow equations in conservation form are used to simulate wave propagation phenomenon throughout the CR (accumulator). Using this model, the effect of common rail on the injection system characteristics is clarified. These characteristics include: rail pressure, sound velocity, rail mass flow rate, injected mass flow rate and pressure drop across injectors. The interaction effects of operational conditions (engine speed and rail pressure) and geometrical features (injector hole diameter) are illustrated; and the required compromised solutions are highlighted. The CRIS is shown to be a promising enhancement for PIH2ICE.
Abstract: Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.
Abstract: Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.
Abstract: This paper investigates the potential use of airborne ultrasonic phased arrays for imaging in outdoor environments as a means of overcoming the limitations experienced by kinect sensors, which may fail to work in the outdoor environments due to the oversaturation of the infrared photo diodes. Ultrasonic phased arrays have been well studied for static media, yet there appears to be no comparable examination in the literature of the impact of a flowing medium on the focusing behaviour of near field focused ultrasonic arrays. This paper presents a method for predicting the sound pressure fields produced by a single ultrasound element or an ultrasonic phased array influenced by airflows. The approach can be used to determine the actual focal point location of an array exposed in a known flow field. From the presented simulation results based upon this model, it can be concluded that uniform flows in the direction orthogonal to the acoustic propagation have a noticeable influence on the sound pressure field, which is reflected in the twisting of the steering angle of the array. Uniform flows in the same direction as the acoustic propagation have negligible influence on the array. For an array impacted by a turbulent flow, determining the location of the focused sound field becomes difficult due to the irregularity and continuously changing direction and the speed of the turbulent flow. In some circumstances, ultrasonic phased arrays impacted by turbulent flows may not be capable of producing a focused sound field.
Abstract: Environmental performance of artisanal brick manufacture was studied by Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) methodology and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis in Mexico. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the environmental impact during artisanal brick manufacture. LCA cradle-to-gate approach was complemented with CFD analysis to carry out an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The lifecycle includes the stages of extraction, baking and transportation to the gate. The functional unit of this study was the production of a single brick in Chihuahua, Mexico and the impact categories studied were carcinogens, respiratory organics and inorganics, climate change radiation, ozone layer depletion, ecotoxicity, acidification/ eutrophication, land use, mineral use and fossil fuels. Laboratory techniques for fuel characterization, gas measurements in situ, and AP42 emission factors were employed in order to calculate gas emissions for inventory data. The results revealed that the categories with greater impacts are ecotoxicity and carcinogens. The CFD analysis is helpful in predicting the thermal diffusion and contaminants from a defined source. LCA-CFD synergy complemented the EIA and allowed us to identify the problem of thermal efficiency within the system.
Abstract: This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for
predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the
latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End
Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system
consists of two main components; features selection and classifier
ensemble components. The features selection component divides the
features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find
the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the
weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The
ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which
models different set of features from SEER through the features
selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give
the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence
scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification
algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the
decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the
underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble
step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when
evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002).
It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and
81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to
cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted
average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.
Abstract: Accurate software reliability prediction not only enables developers to improve the quality of software but also provides useful information to help them for planning valuable resources. This paper examines the performance of three well-known data mining techniques (CART, TreeNet and Random Forest) for predicting software reliability. We evaluate and compare the performance of proposed models with Cascade Correlation Neural Network (CCNN) using sixteen empirical databases from the Data and Analysis Center for Software. The goal of our study is to help project managers to concentrate their testing efforts to minimize the software failures in order to improve the reliability of the software systems. Two performance measures, Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and Mean Absolute Errors (MAE), illustrate that CART model is accurate than the models predicted using Random Forest, TreeNet and CCNN in all datasets used in our study. Finally, we conclude that such methods can help in reliability prediction using real-life failure datasets.
Abstract: Parallel Compressor Model (PCM) is a simplified approach to predict compressor performance with inlet distortions. In PCM calculation, it is assumed that the sub-compressors’ outlet static pressure is uniform and therefore simplifies PCM calculation procedure. However, if the compressor’s outlet duct is not long and straight, such assumption frequently induces error ranging from 10% to 15%. This paper provides a revised calculation method of PCM that can correct the error. The revised method employs energy equation, momentum equation and continuity equation to acquire needed parameters and replace the equal static pressure assumption. Based on the revised method, PCM is applied on two compression system with different blades types. The predictions of their performance in non-uniform inlet conditions are yielded through the revised calculation method and are employed to evaluate the method’s efficiency. Validating the results by experimental data, it is found that although little deviation occurs, calculated result agrees well with experiment data whose error ranges from 0.1% to 3%. Therefore, this proves the revised calculation method of PCM possesses great advantages in predicting the performance of the distorted compressor with limited exhaust duct.
Abstract: As the number of fire accidents is gradually raising, many studies have been reported on evacuation. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating the safety of evacuation and the risk of fire in particular buildings. However, studies on effects of various parameters on evacuation have not been nearly done. Therefore, this paper aims at observing evacuation time under the effect of fire initiated location. In this study, evacuation simulations are performed on a 5-floor building located in Seoul, South Korea using the commercial program, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation (FDS+EVAC). Only the fourth and fifth floors are modeled with an assumption that fire starts in a room located on the fourth floor. The parameter for evacuation simulations is location of fire initiation to observe the evacuation time and safety. Results show that the location of fire initiation is closer to exit, the more time is taken to evacuate. The case having the nearest location of fire initiation to exit has the lowest ratio of successful occupants to the total occupants. In addition, for safety evaluation, the evacuation time calculated from computer simulation model is compared with the tolerable evacuation time according to code in Japan. As a result, all cases are completed within the tolerable evacuation time. This study allows predicting evacuation time under various conditions of fire and can be used to evaluate evacuation appropriateness and fire safety of building.
Abstract: Soil improvement using vibro stone column techniques consists of two main parts: (1) the installed load bearing columns of well-compacted, coarse-grained material and (2) the improvements to the surrounding soil due to vibro compaction. Extensive research work has been carried out over the last 20 years to understand the improvement in the composite foundation performance due to the second part mentioned above. Nevertheless, few of these studies have tried to quantify some of the key design parameters, namely the changes in the stiffness and stress state of the treated soil, or have consider these parameters in the design and calculation process. Consequently, empirical and conservative design methods are still being used by ground improvement companies with a significant variety of results in engineering practice. Two-dimensional finite element study to develop an axisymmetric model of a single stone column reinforced foundation was performed using PLAXIS 2D AE to quantify the effect of the vibro installation of this column in soft saturated clay. Settlement and bearing performance were studied as an essential part of the design and calculation of the stone column foundation. Particular attention was paid to the large deformation in the soft clay around the installed column caused by the lateral expansion. So updated mesh advanced option was taken in the analysis. In this analysis, different degrees of stone column lateral expansions were simulated and numerically analyzed, and then the changes in the stress state, stiffness, settlement performance and bearing capacity were quantified. It was found that application of radial expansion will produce a horizontal stress in the soft clay mass that gradually decrease as the distance from the stone column axis increases. The excess pore pressure due to the undrained conditions starts to dissipate immediately after finishing the column installation, allowing the horizontal stress to relax. Changes in the coefficient of the lateral earth pressure K ٭, which is very important in representing the stress state, and the new stiffness distribution in the reinforced clay mass, were estimated. More encouraging results showed that increasing the expansion during column installation has a noticeable effect on improving the bearing capacity and reducing the settlement of reinforced ground, So, a design method should include this significant effect of the applied lateral displacement during the stone column instillation in simulation and numerical analysis design.
Abstract: The major environmental risk of soil pollution is the
contamination of groundwater by infiltration of organic and inorganic
pollutants which can cause a serious menace. To prevent this risk and
to protect the groundwater, we proceeded in this study to test the
reliability of a biosolid as barrier to prevent the migration of very
dangerous pollutants as ‘Cadmium’ through the different soil layers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effect of several parameters
such as: turbidity (different cycle of Hydration/Dehydration),
rainfall, effect of initial Cd(II) concentration and the type of soil.
These parameters allow us to find the most effective manner to
integrate this barrier in the soil. From the results obtained, we found a
significant effect of the barrier. Indeed, the recorded passing
quantities are lowest for the highest rainfall; we noted also that the
barrier has a better affinity towards higher concentrations; the most
retained amounts of cadmium has been in the top layer of the two
types of soil tested, while the lowest amounts of cadmium are
recorded in the bottom layers of soils.
Abstract: Rapid developments in technology in the present age
have made it necessary for communities to follow technological
developments and adapt themselves to these developments. One of
the fields that are most rapidly affected by these developments is
undoubtedly education. Determination of the attitudes of preservice
teachers, who live in an age of technology and get ready to raise
future individuals, is of paramount importance both educationally and
professionally. The purpose of this study was to analyze attitudes of
preservice teachers towards technology and some variables that
predict these attitudes (gender, daily duration of internet use, and the
number of technical devices owned). 329 preservice teachers
attending the education faculty of a large university in central Turkey
participated, on a volunteer basis, in this study, where relational
survey model was used as the research method. Research findings
reveal that preservice teachers’ attitudes towards technology are
positive and at the same time, the attitudes of male preservice
teachers towards technology are more positive than their female
counterparts. As a result of the stepwise multiple regression analysis
where factors predicting preservice teachers’ attitudes towards
technology, it was found that duration of daily internet use was the
strongest predictor of attitudes towards technology.
Abstract: Web Usage Mining is the application of data mining
techniques to find usage patterns from web log data, so as to grasp
required patterns and serve the requirements of Web-based
applications. User’s expertise on the internet may be improved by
minimizing user’s web access latency. This may be done by
predicting the future search page earlier and the same may be prefetched
and cached. Therefore, to enhance the standard of web
services, it is needed topic to research the user web navigation
behavior. Analysis of user’s web navigation behavior is achieved
through modeling web navigation history. We propose this technique
which cluster’s the user sessions, based on the K-medoids technique.
Abstract: Rivers have transient storage or dead zones where
injected pollutants or solutes are entrapped for considerable period of
time, known as residence time, before being released into the main
flowing zones of rivers. In this study, a new empirical expression for
residence time, implementing genetic programming on published
dispersion data, has been derived. The proposed expression uses few
hydraulic and geometric characteristics of rivers which are normally
known to the authorities. When compared with some reported
expressions, based on various statistical indices, it can be concluded
that the proposed expression predicts the residence time of pollutants
in natural rivers more accurately.
Abstract: Both steady and unsteady turbulent mixed convection
heat transfer in a 3D lid-driven enclosure, which has constant heat
flux on the middle of bottom wall and with isothermal moving
sidewalls, is reported in this paper for working fluid with Prandtl
number Pr = 0.71. The other walls are adiabatic and stationary. The
dimensionless parameters used in this research are Reynolds number,
Re = 5000, 10000 and 15000, and Richardson number, Ri = 1 and 10.
The simulations have been done by using different turbulent methods
such as RANS, URANS, and LES. The effects of using different k-ε
models such as standard, RNG and Realizable k-ε model are
investigated. Interesting behaviours of the thermal and flow fields
with changing the Re or Ri numbers are observed. Isotherm and
turbulent kinetic energy distributions and variation of local Nusselt
number at the hot bottom wall are studied as well. The local Nusselt
number is found increasing with increasing either Re or Ri number.
In addition, the turbulent kinetic energy is discernibly affected by
increasing Re number. Moreover, the LES results have shown good
ability of this method in predicting more detailed flow structures in
the cavity.