Abstract: This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.
Abstract: A reliable, real-time, and non-invasive system that can identify patients at risk for hemodynamic instability is needed to aid clinicians in their efforts to anticipate patient deterioration and initiate early interventions. The purpose of this pilot study was to explore the clinical capabilities of a real-time analytic from a single lead of an electrocardiograph to correctly distinguish between rapid response team (RRT) activations due to hemodynamic (H-RRT) and non-hemodynamic (NH-RRT) causes, as well as predict H-RRT cases with actionable lead times. The study consisted of a single center, retrospective cohort of 21 patients with RRT activations from step-down and telemetry units. Through electronic health record review and blinded to the analytic’s output, each patient was categorized by clinicians into H-RRT and NH-RRT cases. The analytic output and the categorization were compared. The prediction lead time prior to the RRT call was calculated. The analytic correctly distinguished between H-RRT and NH-RRT cases with 100% accuracy, demonstrating 100% positive and negative predictive values, and 100% sensitivity and specificity. In H-RRT cases, the analytic detected hemodynamic deterioration with a median lead time of 9.5 hours prior to the RRT call (range 14 minutes to 52 hours). The study demonstrates that an electrocardiogram (ECG) based analytic has the potential for providing clinical decision and monitoring support for caregivers to identify at risk patients within a clinically relevant timeframe allowing for increased vigilance and early interventional support to reduce the chances of continued patient deterioration.
Abstract: The north-eastern, Himalayan, and Eastern Ghats Belt
of India comprise of earthquake-prone, remote, and hilly terrains.
Earthquakes have caused enormous damages in these regions in the
past. A wireless sensor network based earthquake early warning
system (EEWS) is being developed to mitigate the damages caused
by earthquakes. It consists of sensor nodes, distributed over the
region, that perform majority voting of the output of the seismic
sensors in the vicinity, and relay a message to a base station to alert
the residents when an earthquake is detected. At the heart of the
EEWS is a low-power two-stage seismic sensor that continuously
tracks seismic events from incoming three-axis accelerometer signal
at the first-stage, and, in the presence of a seismic event, triggers
the second-stage P-wave detector that detects the onset of P-wave
in an earthquake event. The parameters of the P-wave detector have
been optimized for minimizing detection time and maximizing the
accuracy of detection.Working of the sensor scheme has been verified
with seven earthquakes data retrieved from IRIS. In all test cases, the
scheme detected the onset of P-wave accurately. Also, it has been
established that the P-wave onset detection time reduces linearly with
the sampling rate. It has been verified with test data; the detection
time for data sampled at 10Hz was around 2 seconds which reduced
to 0.3 second for the data sampled at 100Hz.
Abstract: The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.
Abstract: Regional earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are not suitable for Taiwan, as most destructive seismic hazards arise due to in-land earthquakes. These likely cause the lead-time provided by regional EEW systems before a destructive earthquake wave arrives to become null. On the other hand, an on-site EEW system can provide more lead-time at a region closer to an epicenter, since only seismic information of the target site is required. Instead of leveraging the information of several stations, the on-site system extracts some P-wave features from the first few seconds of vertical ground acceleration of a single station and performs a prediction of the oncoming earthquake intensity at the same station according to these features. Since seismometers could be triggered by non-earthquake events such as a passing of a truck or other human activities, to reduce the likelihood of false alarms, a seismometer was installed at three different locations on the same site and the performance of the EEW system for these three sensor locations were discussed. The results show that the location on the ground of the first floor of a school building maybe a good choice, since the false alarms could be reduced and the cost for installation and maintenance is the lowest.
Abstract: Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.
Abstract: This paper describes the issues relating to the role of
the flash flood early warning system provided by the Malaysian
Government to the communities in Malaysia, specifically during the
flash flood disaster in the Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. Normally,
flash flood disasters can occur as a result of heavy rainfall in an area,
and that water may possibly cause flooding via streams or narrow
channels. The focus of this study is the flash flood disaster which
occurred on 23 October 2013 in the Cameron Highlands, and as a
result the Sungai Bertam overflowed after the release of water from
the Sultan Abu Bakar Dam. This release of water from the dam
caused flash flooding which led to damage to properties and also the
death of residents and livestock in the area. Therefore, the effort of
this study is to identify the perceptions of the flash flood victims on
the role of the flash flood early warning system. For the purposes of
this study, data were gathered through face-to-face interviews from
those flood victims who were willing to participate in this study. This
approach helped the researcher to glean in-depth information about
their feelings and perceptions of the role of the flash flood early
warning system offered by the government. The data were analysed
descriptively and the findings show that the respondents of 22 flood
victims believe strongly that the flash flood early warning system was
confusing and dysfunctional, and communities had failed to response
positively to it. Therefore, most of the communities were not well
prepared for the releasing of water from the dam which caused
property damage, and 3 people were killed in the Cameron Highland
flash flood disaster.
Abstract: Flash Floods, together with landslides, are a common
natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills.
One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early
Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation
strategy for natural disasters.
In this work we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early
Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more
ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early
warning of landslides.
To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing
Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general
architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus
on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical
models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.
Abstract: Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose
the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the
distressed extent differs substantially among different financial
distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed”
and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article
to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper
explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method.
First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate
governance and market factors to measure the probability of various
financial distress events based on multinomial logit models.
Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the
difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work
further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle
index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage
models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and
two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial
distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared
with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the
one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the
two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the
two-stage model.
Abstract: This paper will define the system that minimize the risk of the ship accidents because of high or dangerous waves namely early warning system. Since Indonesia is located in a strategic position, many internasional vessels pass by the Indonesian Sea Lanes. Therefore many issues often occur in Indonesian waters, one of the issues is the shipwreck because of dangerous waves. In order to do the preventive action for the vessels that indicated exposed the dangerous waves, Indonesian Maritime Security Coordinating Board or Bakorkamla, has built up and implemented an early warning system through integrated system, called Bakorkamla Integrated Information System (BIIS). By implementing BIIS means that Bakorkamla has already done one of the Five Principles of Sea and Coast Guard Agency, which is safety and security, and Bakorkamla also has already saved the lives of many people on the ship that will have an accident due to high waves.
Abstract: Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can
cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is
that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place
in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to
its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert
to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi
Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated,
investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather
model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a
reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been
utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated
with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall
measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model
forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was
10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between
WRF model and real measurements results.
Abstract: One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient finance background. In this study, an Early Warning System (EWS) model based on data mining for financial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of the model implemented which covered 7,853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps has been determined for financial risk mitigation.
Abstract: In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).
Abstract: More and more natural disasters are happening every
year: floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc. In order to reduce
the risk of possible damages, governments all around the world are
investing into development of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for
environmental applications. The most important task of the EWS is
identification of the onset of critical situations affecting environment
and population, early enough to inform the authorities and general
public. This paper describes an approach for monitoring of flood
protections systems based on machine learning methods. An
Artificial Intelligence (AI) component has been developed for
detection of abnormal dike behaviour. The AI module has been
integrated into an EWS platform of the UrbanFlood project (EU
Seventh Framework Programme) and validated on real-time
measurements from the sensors installed in a dike.
Abstract: During last decades, worldwide researchers dedicated
efforts to develop machine-based seismic Early Warning systems,
aiming at reducing the huge human losses and economic damages.
The elaboration time of seismic waveforms is to be reduced in order
to increase the time interval available for the activation of safety
measures. This paper suggests a Data Mining model able to correctly
and quickly estimate dangerousness of the running seismic event.
Several thousand seismic recordings of Japanese and Italian
earthquakes were analyzed and a model was obtained by means of a
Bayesian Network (BN), which was tested just over the first
recordings of seismic events in order to reduce the decision time and
the test results were very satisfactory.
The model was integrated within an Early Warning System
prototype able to collect and elaborate data from a seismic sensor
network, estimate the dangerousness of the running earthquake and
take the decision of activating the warning promptly.
Abstract: During the last couple of years, the degree of dependence on IT systems has reached a dimension nobody imagined to be possible 10 years ago. The increased usage of mobile devices (e.g., smart phones), wireless sensor networks and embedded devices (Internet of Things) are only some examples of the dependency of modern societies on cyber space. At the same time, the complexity of IT applications, e.g., because of the increasing use of cloud computing, is rising continuously. Along with this, the threats to IT security have increased both quantitatively and qualitatively, as recent examples like STUXNET or the supposed cyber attack on Illinois water system are proofing impressively. Once isolated control systems are nowadays often publicly available - a fact that has never been intended by the developers. Threats to IT systems don’t care about areas of responsibility. Especially with regard to Cyber Warfare, IT threats are no longer limited to company or industry boundaries, administrative jurisdictions or state boundaries. One of the important countermeasures is increased cooperation among the participants especially in the field of Cyber Defence. Besides political and legal challenges, there are technical ones as well. A better, at least partially automated exchange of information is essential to (i) enable sophisticated situational awareness and to (ii) counter the attacker in a coordinated way. Therefore, this publication performs an evaluation of state of the art Intrusion Detection Message Exchange protocols in order to guarantee a secure information exchange between different entities.
Abstract: Developing a stable early warning system (EWS)
model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging
task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method
which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the
aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN
performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in
our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a
consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods
which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural
network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The
analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic
indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method
with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other
methods.