Forecasting of Flash Floods over Wadi Watier –Sinai Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can
cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is
that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place
in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to
its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert
to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi
Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated,
investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather
model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a
reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been
utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated
with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall
measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model
forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was
10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between
WRF model and real measurements results.
[1] X. Lin, "Flash floods in arid and semi-arid zones," IHP-V Technical
Documents in Hydrology, no. 23, 1999.
[2] K. Smith, and R. Ward, "Floods - physical processes and human
impacts," John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, UK, 1998.
[3] R.A. Houze, "Cloud dynamics," Academic Press, 573pp, 1993.
[4] R.A. Houze, "Stratiform precipitation in regions of convection," Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc. 78, 2179-95, 1997.
[5] UNEP, "World atlas of desertification," United Nations Environment
Programme, 1992.
[6] W. Skamarock, J. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. Gill, D. Barker, M. Duda, X.
Huang, W. Wang, and J. Powers, "A description of the Advanced
Research WRF version 3," NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-
475+STR, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 2008.
[7] M. El-Sammany, "Tool to analyze remote sensing data for rainfall
forecasting," FlaFloM (Flash Flood Manager), report no. 21, Water
Resources Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt, 2009.
[8] J. Done, C. Davis, and M. Weisman, "The next generation of NWP:
Explicit forecasts of convection using the Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) model," Atmos. Sci. Letters., 5, pp. 110-117, 2004.
[9] ESRI, "ArcGIS Version 9.3," http://www.esri.com
[1] X. Lin, "Flash floods in arid and semi-arid zones," IHP-V Technical
Documents in Hydrology, no. 23, 1999.
[2] K. Smith, and R. Ward, "Floods - physical processes and human
impacts," John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, UK, 1998.
[3] R.A. Houze, "Cloud dynamics," Academic Press, 573pp, 1993.
[4] R.A. Houze, "Stratiform precipitation in regions of convection," Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc. 78, 2179-95, 1997.
[5] UNEP, "World atlas of desertification," United Nations Environment
Programme, 1992.
[6] W. Skamarock, J. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. Gill, D. Barker, M. Duda, X.
Huang, W. Wang, and J. Powers, "A description of the Advanced
Research WRF version 3," NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-
475+STR, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 2008.
[7] M. El-Sammany, "Tool to analyze remote sensing data for rainfall
forecasting," FlaFloM (Flash Flood Manager), report no. 21, Water
Resources Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt, 2009.
[8] J. Done, C. Davis, and M. Weisman, "The next generation of NWP:
Explicit forecasts of convection using the Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) model," Atmos. Sci. Letters., 5, pp. 110-117, 2004.
[9] ESRI, "ArcGIS Version 9.3," http://www.esri.com
@article{"International Journal of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences:64074", author = "Moustafa S. El-Sammany", title = "Forecasting of Flash Floods over Wadi Watier –Sinai Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model", abstract = "Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can
cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is
that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place
in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to
its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert
to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi
Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated,
investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather
model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a
reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been
utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated
with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall
measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model
forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was
10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between
WRF model and real measurements results.", keywords = "Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.", volume = "4", number = "10", pages = "497-5", }