Abstract: Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose
the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the
distressed extent differs substantially among different financial
distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed”
and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article
to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper
explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method.
First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate
governance and market factors to measure the probability of various
financial distress events based on multinomial logit models.
Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the
difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work
further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle
index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage
models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and
two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial
distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared
with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the
one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the
two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the
two-stage model.
Abstract: The Czech Republic is a country whose economy has
undergone a transformation since 1989. Since joining the EU it has
been striving to reduce the differences in its economic standard and
the quality of its institutional environment in comparison with
developed countries. According to an assessment carried out by the
World Bank, the Czech Republic was long classed as a country
whose institutional development was seen as problematic. For many
years one of the things it was rated most poorly on was its bankruptcy
law. The new Insolvency Act, which is a modern law in terms of its
treatment of bankruptcy, was first adopted in the Czech Republic in
2006. This law, together with other regulatory measures, offers debtridden
Czech economic subjects legal instruments which are well
established and in common practice in developed market economies.
Since then, analyses performed by the World Bank and the London
EBRD have shown that there have been significant steps forward in
the quality of Czech bankruptcy law. The Czech Republic still lacks
an analytical apparatus which can offer a structured characterisation
of the general and specific conditions of Czech company and
household debt which is subject to current changes in the global
economy. This area has so far not been given the attention it
deserves. The lack of research is particularly clear as regards analysis
of household debt and householders- ability to settle their debts in a
reasonable manner using legal and other state means of regulation.
We assume that Czech households have recourse to a modern
insolvency law, yet the effective application of this law is hampered
by the inconsistencies in the formal and informal institutions
involved in resolving debt. This in turn is based on the assumption
that this lack of consistency is more marked in cases of personal
bankruptcy. Our aim is to identify the symptoms which indicate that
for some time the effective application of bankruptcy law in the
Czech Republic will be hindered by factors originating in
householders- relative inability to identify the risks of falling into
debt.