Further Development in Predicting Post-Earthquake Fire Ignition Hazard

In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that
resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake
fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and
caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce
the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is
a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The
parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors
influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition,
including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance,
and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing
to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake
characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak
ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are
solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they
cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake
records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model
parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition
ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in
an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition
events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such
correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Authors:

• Pegah Farshadmanesh
• Jamshid Mohammadi
• Mehdi Modares

Keywords:

• Fire risk
• post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI)
• risk management
• seismicity.

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