Abstract: Lagos urban mini bus drivers play a critical role in the
transportation sector. The current major mode of transportation
within Lagos metropolis remains road transportation and this
confirms the relevance of urban mini-bus drivers in transporting the
populace to their various destinations. Other modes of transportation
such as the train and waterways are currently inadequate. Various
threats to the well-being of urban bus drivers include congested
traffic typical of modern day lifestyles, dwindling financial returns
due to long hours in traffic, fewer hours of sleep, inadequate diet,
time pressure, and assaults related to fare disputes. Several healthrelated
problems have been documented to be associated with urban
bus driving. For instance, greater rates of hypertension, obesity and
cholesterol level have been reported. Research studies are yet to
identify the influence of age and marital status on the well-being of
urban mini-bus drivers in Lagos metropolis. A study of this nature is
necessary as it is culturally perceived in Nigeria that older and
married people are especially influenced by family affiliation and
would behave in ways that would project positive outcomes. The
study sample consisted of 150 urban mini-bus drivers who were
conveniently sampled from six (6) different terminuses where their
journey begins and terminates. The well-being questionnaire was
administered to participants. The criteria for inclusion in the study
included the ability to read in English language and the confirmation
that interested participants were on duty and suited to be driving
mini-buses. Due to the nature of the job of bus driving, the researcher
administered the questionnaires on participants who were free and
willing to respond to the survey. All participants were males of
various age groups and of different marital statuses. Results of
analyses conducted revealed no significant influence of age and
marital status on the well-being of urban mini-bus drivers. This
indicates that the well-being of urban mini bus drivers is not
influenced by age or marital status. The findings of this study have
cultural implications. It negates the popularly held belief that older
and married people care more about their well-being than younger
and single people. It brings to fore the need to also identify and
consider other factors when certifying people for the job of urban bus
driving.
Abstract: In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile
function model that can be used for estimating conditional
distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead
out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we
forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity
of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply
as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the
model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010.
We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for
the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually
observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model.
The results show that the new model can capture the main features
of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with
improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We
hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the
potential to be very useful in practice.
Abstract: Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.
Abstract: In this paper, we combine a probabilistic neural method with radial-bias functions in order to construct the lithofacies of the wells DF01, DF02 and DF03 situated in the Triassic province of Algeria (Sahara). Lithofacies is a crucial problem in reservoir characterization. Our objective is to facilitate the experts' work in geological domain and to allow them to obtain quickly the structure and the nature of lands around the drilling. This study intends to design a tool that helps automatic deduction from numerical data. We used a probabilistic formalism to enhance the classification process initiated by a Self-Organized Map procedure. Our system gives lithofacies, from well-log data, of the concerned reservoir wells in an aspect easy to read by a geology expert who identifies the potential for oil production at a given source and so forms the basis for estimating the financial returns and economic benefits.
Abstract: The transition to sustainable development requires
considerable investments from stakeholders, both financial and
immaterial. However, accounting for such investments often poses a
challenge, as ventures with intangible or non-financial returns remain
oblivious to conventional accounting techniques and risk assessment.
That such investments may significantly contribute to the welfare of
those affected may act as a driving force behind attempting to bridge
this gap. This gains crucial importance as investments must be also
backed by governments and administrations; entities whose budget
depends on taxpayers- contributions and whose tasks are based on
securing the welfare of their citizens. Besides economic welfare,
citizens also require social and environmental wellbeing too.
However, administrations must also safeguard that welfare is
guaranteed not only to present, but to future generations too. With
already strained budgets and the requirement of sustainable
development, governments on all levels face the double challenge of
making both of these ends meet.