Abstract: This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based
short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is
a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian
distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process
models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future
electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the
direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that
combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is
applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results
are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric
load forecasting.
Abstract: In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.
Abstract: In our business field today, one of the most important issues for any enterprises is cost minimization and profit maximization. Second issue is how to develop a strong and capable model that is able to give us desired forecasting of these two issues. Many researches deal with these issues using different methods. In this study, we developed a model for multi-criteria production program optimization, integrated with Artificial Neural Network.
The prediction of the production cost and profit per unit of a product, dealing with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a great amount of conflict information about production parameters.
Feed-Forward Neural Networks are suitable for generalization, which means that the network will generate a proper output as a result to input it has never seen. Therefore, with small set of examples the network will adjust its weight coefficients so the input will generate a proper output.
This essential characteristic is of the most important abilities enabling this network to be used in variety of problems spreading from engineering to finance etc.
From our results as we will see later, Feed-Forward Neural Networks has a strong ability and capability to map inputs into desired outputs.
Abstract: The factors necessary to obtain an optimal heat treatment that influence the hardness and resistivity of Al-6Si-0.5Mg casting alloys with Cu or/and Ni additions were investigated. The alloys were homogenised (24hr at 500oC), solutionized (2hr at 540oC) and artificially ageing at various times and temperatures. The alloys were aged isochronally for 60 minutes at temperatures up to 400oC and isothermally at 150, 175, 200, 225, 250 & 300oC for different periods in the range 15 to 360 minutes. The hardness and electrical resistivity of the alloys were measured for various artificial ageing times and temperatures. From the isochronal ageing treatment, hardness found maximum ageing at 225oC. And from the isothermal ageing treatment, hardness found maximum for 60 minutes at 225oC. So the optimal heat treatment consists of 60 minutes ageing at 225oC.
Abstract: The production of aluminum alloys and ingots –
starting from the processing of alumina to aluminum, and the final
cast product – was studied using a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
approach. The studied aluminum supply chain consisted of a carbon
plant, a reduction plant, a casting plant, and a power plant. In the
LCA model, the environmental loads of the different plants for the
production of 1 ton of aluminum metal were investigated. The impact
of the aluminum production was assessed in eight impact categories.
The results showed that for all of the impact categories the power
plant had the highest impact only in the cases of Human Toxicity
Potential (HTP) the reduction plant had the highest impact and in the
Marine Aquatic Eco-Toxicity Potential (MAETP) the carbon plant
had the highest impact. Furthermore, the impact of the carbon plant
and the reduction plant combined was almost the same as the impact
of the power plant in the case of the Acidification Potential (AP). The
carbon plant had a positive impact on the environment when it come
to the Eutrophication Potential (EP) due to the production of clean
water in the process. The natural gas based power plant used in the
case study had 8.4 times less negative impact on the environment
when compared to the heavy fuel based power plant and 10.7 times
less negative impact when compared to the hard coal based power
plant.
Abstract: ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.
Abstract: Collaborative Planning and Forecasting is an innovative and systematic approach towards productive integration and assimilation of data synergized into information. The changing and variable market dynamics have persuaded global business chains to incorporate Collaborative Planning and Forecasting as an imperative tool. Thus, it is essential for the supply chains to constantly improvise, update its nature, and mould as per changing global environment.
Abstract: In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.
Abstract: Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.
Abstract: The conventional routing protocol designed for MANET fail to handle dynamic movement and self-starting behavior of the node effectively. Every node in MANET is considered as forward as well receiver node and all of them participate in routing the packet from source to the destination. While the interconnection topology is highly dynamic, the performance of the most of the routing protocol is not encouraging. In this paper, a reliable broadcast approach for MANET is proposed for improving the transmission rate. The MANET is considered with asymmetric characteristics and the properties of the source and destination nodes are different. The non-forwarding node list is generated with a downstream node and they do not participate in the routing. While the forwarding and non-forwarding node is constructed in a conventional way, the number of nodes in non-forwarding list is more and increases the load. In this work, we construct the forwarding and non-forwarding node optimally so that the flooding and broadcasting is reduced to certain extent. The forwarded packet is considered as acknowledgements and the non-forwarding nodes explicitly send the acknowledgements to the source. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in NS2 environment. Since the proposed approach reduces the flooding, we have considered functionality of the proposed approach with AODV variants. The effect of network density on the overhead and collision rate is considered for performance evaluation. The performance is compared with the AODV variants found that the proposed approach outperforms all the variants.
Abstract: While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.
Abstract: Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.
Abstract: TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modeling.
Abstract: Models based on stage structure have found varied applications in population models. This paper proposes a stage structured model to study the trends in the computer and video game playing population of US. The game paying population is divided into three compartments based on their age group. After simulating the mathematical model, a forecast of the number of game players in each stage as well as an approximation of the average age of game players in future has been made.
Abstract: The primary objective of this paper is to study the thermal effects of the electric arc on the breaker apparatus contacts for forecasting and improving the contact durability. We will propose a model which takes account of the main influence factors on the erosion contacts. This phenomenon is very complicated because the amount of ejected metal is not necessarily constituted by the whole melted metal bath but this depends on the balance of forces on the contact surface. Consequently, to calculate the metal ejection coefficient, we propose a method which consists in comparing the experimental results with the calculated ones. The proposed model estimates the mass lost by vaporization, by droplets ejection and by the extraction mechanism of liquid or solid metal. In the one-dimensional geometry, to calculate of the contact heating, we used Green’s function which expresses the point source and allows the transition to the surface source. However, for the two- dimensional model we used explicit and implicit numerical methods. The results are similar to those found by Wilson’s experiments.
Abstract: Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.
Abstract: Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.
Abstract: Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.
Abstract: In broadcasting and cellular system, a cooperative
scheme is proposed for the improvement of performance of bit error
rate. Up to date, the coverage of broadcasting system coexists with the
coverage of cellular system. Therefore each user in a cellular coverage
is frequently involved in a broadcasting coverage. The proposed
cooperative scheme is derived from the shared areas. The users receive
signals from both broadcasting station and cellular station. The
proposed scheme selects a cellular base station of a worse channel to
achieve better performance of bit error rate in cooperation. The
performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated in fading channel.
Abstract: This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly Ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.