Abstract: Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator
evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios;
therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability
to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class
of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many
authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate
the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has
multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle
Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize
by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon
curve and the NSS curve.
Abstract: Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.