Abstract: Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has opened up new and robust ways of sending and receiving information at global level. Any type of information including voice and video is sent to the diverse publics, who equally have variety of choices. Thus, the development of any nation is tied to efficient information dissemination. In Nigeria, television broadcasting started in 1959 with the establishment of the Western Nigeria Television (WNTV) by the opposition leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo. Later on, the government took over the station and fully controlled it. Subsequently, regional stations were opened to propagate government policies and programs. The television industry in Nigeria continued to grow in terms of viewership and number with over fifty national television stations and twenty five private ones. Thus, existing documents on digitization of television broadcasting industry and related literature were used as the main source of information. Therefore, this paper analyses the efforts being made by the Nigerian government through its ICT policy towards digitization of its television broadcasting in order to cope with the global trend. Recommendations are proffered with a view to achieving the target goal.
Abstract: Textures of AZ31 Mg alloy sheets were evaluated by using neutron diffraction method in this study. The AZ31 sheets were fabricated either by conventional casting and subsequent hot rolling or strip casting. The effect of warm rolling was investigated using the AZ31 Mg alloy sheet produced by conventional casting. Warm rolling of 30% thickness reduction per pass was possible without any side-crack at temperatures as low as 200oC under the roll speed of 30 m/min. The initial microstructure of conventionally cast specimen was found to be partially recrystallized structures. Grain refinement was found to occur actively during the warm rolling. The (0002),(10-10) (10-11),and (10-12) complete pole figures were measured using the HANARO FCD (Neutron Four Circle Diffractometer) and ODF were calculated. The major texture of all specimens can be expressed by ND//(0001) fiber texture. Texture of hot rolled specimen showed the strongest fiber component, while that of strip cast sheet seemed to be similar to random distribution.
Abstract: This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.
Abstract: Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for the economic and secure operation of power systems. In this paper, Continuous Genetic Algorithm (CGA) is employed to evolve the optimum large neural networks structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. This study describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. We find good performance for the large neural networks. The proposed methodology gives lower percent errors all the time. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.
Abstract: Reliable water level forecasts are particularly
important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The
current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive
network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level
modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least
square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to
identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels
data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling
interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should
be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical
methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation
function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until
12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at
higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased
fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and
provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation.
In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system
provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead
where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to
12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good
performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than
9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results
provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning
system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential
extreme flood are indicated.
Abstract: This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.
Abstract: Collaborative planning, forecasting and
replenishment (CPFR) coordinates the various supply chain
management activities including production and purchase planning,
demand forecasting and inventory replenishment between supply
chain trading partners. This study proposes a systematic way of
analyzing CPFR supporting factors using fuzzy cognitive map
(FCM) approach. FCMs have proven particularly useful for solving
problems in which a number of decision variables and
uncontrollable variables are causally interrelated. Hence the FCMs
of CPFR are created to show the relationships between the factors
that influence on effective implementation of CPFR in the supply
chain.
Abstract: In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.
Abstract: Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed
Abstract: The prediction of meteorological parameters at a
meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder
linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the
grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data
points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we
consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and
the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term
prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy
predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a
comparison between local and global prediction schemes.
Abstract: this paper presents an auto-regressive network called the Auto-Regressive Multi-Context Recurrent Neural Network (ARMCRN), which forecasts the daily peak load for two large power plant systems. The auto-regressive network is a combination of both recurrent and non-recurrent networks. Weather component variables are the key elements in forecasting because any change in these variables affects the demand of energy load. So the AR-MCRN is used to learn the relationship between past, previous, and future exogenous and endogenous variables. Experimental results show that using the change in weather components and the change that occurred in past load as inputs to the AR-MCRN, rather than the basic weather parameters and past load itself as inputs to the same network, produce higher accuracy of predicted load. Experimental results also show that using exogenous and endogenous variables as inputs is better than using only the exogenous variables as inputs to the network.
Abstract: Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.
Abstract: A SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data
Acquisition) system is an industrial control and monitoring system for
national infrastructures. The SCADA systems were used in a closed
environment without considering about security functionality in the
past. As communication technology develops, they try to connect the
SCADA systems to an open network. Therefore, the security of the
SCADA systems has been an issue. The study of key management for
SCADA system also has been performed. However, existing key
management schemes for SCADA system such as SKE(Key
establishment for SCADA systems) and SKMA(Key management
scheme for SCADA systems) cannot support broadcasting
communication. To solve this problem, an Advanced Key
Management Architecture for Secure SCADA Communication has
been proposed by Choi et al.. Choi et al.-s scheme also has a problem
that it requires lots of computational cost for multicasting
communication. In this paper, we propose an enhanced scheme which
improving computational cost for multicasting communication with
considering the number of keys to be stored in a low power
communication device (RTU).
Abstract: In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy
System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the
prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries.
We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model.
We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system
in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and can be a very
useful alternative tool used by the national statistical services and the
banking and finance industry.
Abstract: To respond to the Kyoto Protocol, the policy of Payment for Environmental Service (PES), which was entitled “Plain Landscape Afforestation Program (PLAP)", was certified by Executive Yuan in Taiwan on 31 August 2001 and has been implementing for six years since 1 January 2002. Although the PLAP has received a lot of positive comments, there are still many difficulties during the process of implementation, such as insufficient technology for afforestation, private landowners- low interests in participating in PLAP, insufficient subsidies, and so on, which are potential threats that hinder the PLAP from moving forward in future. In this paper, selecting Ping-Tung County in Taiwan as a sample region and targeting those private landowners with and without intention to participate in the PLAP, respectively, we conduct an empirical analysis based on the Logit model to investigate the factors that determine whether those private landowners join the PLAP, so as to realize the incentive effects of the PLAP upon the personal decision on afforestation. The possible factors that might determine private landowner-s participation in the PLAP include landowner-s characteristics, cropland characteristics, as well as policy factors. Among them, the policy factors include afforestation subsidy amount (+), duration of afforestation subsidy (+), the rules on adjoining and adjacent areas (+), and so on, which do not reach the remarkable level in statistics though, but the directions of variable signs are consistent with the intuition behind the policy. As for the landowners- characteristics, each of age (+), education level (–), and annual household income (+) variables reaches 10% of the remarkable level in statistics; as for the cropland characteristics, each of cropland area (+), cropland price (–), and the number of cropland parcels (–) reaches 1% of the remarkable level in statistics. In light of the above, the cropland characteristics are the dominate factor that determines the probability of landowner-s participation in the PLAP. In the Logit model established by this paper, the probability of correctly estimating nonparticipants is 98%, the probability of correctly estimating the participants is 71.8%, and the probability for the overall estimation is 95%. In addition, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and omnibus test also revealed that the Logit model in this paper may provide fine goodness of fit and good predictive power in forecasting private landowners- participation in this program. The empirical result of this paper expects to help the implementation of the afforestation programs in Taiwan.
Abstract: Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can
cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is
that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place
in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to
its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert
to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi
Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated,
investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather
model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a
reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been
utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated
with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall
measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model
forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was
10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between
WRF model and real measurements results.
Abstract: A novel idea presented in this paper is to combine
multihop routing with single-frequency networks (SFNs) for a
broadcasting scenario. An SFN is a set of multiple nodes that transmit
the same data simultaneously, resulting in transmitter macrodiversity.
Two of the most important performance factors of multihop
networks, node reachability and routing robustness, are analyzed.
Simulation results show that our proposed SFN-D routing algorithm
improves the node reachability by 37 percentage points as compared
to non-SFN multihop routing. It shows a diversity gain of 3.7 dB,
meaning that 3.7 dB lower transmission powers are required for the
same reachability. Even better results are possible for larger
networks. If an important node becomes inactive, this algorithm can
find new routes that a non-SFN scheme would not be able to find.
Thus, two of the major problems in multihopping are addressed;
achieving robust routing as well as improving node reachability or
reducing transmission power.
Abstract: The focus in this work is to assess which method
allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi)
when taking into account association between climatic factors and
the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both
malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and
analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our
objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases
to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future
observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared
leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average
percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing
state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed
better.
Abstract: One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is
agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most
important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is
rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in
agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR)
provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output
relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the
other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall
prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the
polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are
compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model
(MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on
MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.
Abstract: In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.