Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models with Genetic Algorithm in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

A Revisited View to the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) in Female and Male Normal Subjects

Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) has been used as a common research tool for different neurological disorders like Multiple Sclerosis. Recently, technology let researchers to introduce a new versions of the visual test, the paced visual serial addition test (PVSAT). In this paper, the computerized version of these two tests is introduced. Beside the number of true responses are interpreted, the reaction time of subjects are calculated by the software. We hypothesize that paying attention to the reaction time may be valuable. For this purpose, sixty eight female normal subjects and fifty eight male normal subjects are enrolled in the study. We investigate the similarity between the PASAT3 and PVSAT3 in number of true responses and the new criterion (the average reaction time of each subject). The similarity between two tests were rejected (p-value = 0.000) which means that these two test differ. The effect of sex in the tests were not approved since the pvalues of different between PASAT3 and PVSAT3 in both sex is the same (p-value = 0.000) which means that male and female subjects performed the tests at no different level of performance. The new criterion shows a negative correlation with the age which offers aged normal subjects may have the same number of true responses as the young subjects but they have latent responses. This will give prove for the importance of reaction time.

International Financial Crises and the Political Economy of Financial Reforms in Turkey: 1994-2009

This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.

Development of a Low Cost Haptic Knob

Haptics has been used extensively in many applications especially in human machine interaction and virtual reality systems. Haptic technology allows user to perceive virtual reality as in real world. However, commercially available haptic devices are expensive and may not be suitable for educational purpose. This paper describes the design and development of a low cost haptic knob, with only one degree of freedom, for use in rehabilitation or training hand pronation and supination. End-effectors can be changed to suit different applications or variation in hand sizes and hand orientation.

Information System for Data Selection and New Information Acquisition for Reconfigurable Multifunctional Machine Tools

The purpose of the paper is to develop an informationcontrol environment for overall management and self-reconfiguration of the reconfigurable multifunctional machine tool for machining both rotation and prismatic parts and high concentration of different technological operations - turning, milling, drilling, grinding, etc. For the realization of this purpose on the basis of defined sub-processes for the implementation of the technological process, architecture of the information-search system for machine control is suggested. By using the object-oriented method, a structure and organization of the search system based on agents and manager with central control are developed. Thus conditions for identification of available information in DBs, self-reconfiguration of technological system and entire control of the reconfigurable multifunctional machine tool are created.

Performance Analysis of a Discrete-time GeoX/G/1 Queue with Single Working Vacation

This paper treats a discrete-time batch arrival queue with single working vacation. The main purpose of this paper is to present a performance analysis of this system by using the supplementary variable technique. For this purpose, we first analyze the Markov chain underlying the queueing system and obtain its ergodicity condition. Next, we present the stationary distributions of the system length as well as some performance measures at random epochs by using the supplementary variable method. Thirdly, still based on the supplementary variable method we give the probability generating function (PGF) of the number of customers at the beginning of a busy period and give a stochastic decomposition formulae for the PGF of the stationary system length at the departure epochs. Additionally, we investigate the relation between our discretetime system and its continuous counterpart. Finally, some numerical examples show the influence of the parameters on some crucial performance characteristics of the system.

Numerical Analysis of Plate Heat Exchanger Performance in Co-Current Fluid Flow Configuration

For many industrial applications plate heat exchangers are demonstrating a large superiority over the other types of heat exchangers. The efficiency of such a device depends on numerous factors the effect of which needs to be analysed and accurately evaluated. In this paper we present a theoretical analysis of a cocurrent plate heat exchanger and the results of its numerical simulation. Knowing the hot and the cold fluid streams inlet temperatures, the respective heat capacities mCp and the value of the overall heat transfer coefficient, a 1-D mathematical model based on the steady flow energy balance for a differential length of the device is developed resulting in a set of N first order differential equations with boundary conditions where N is the number of channels.For specific heat exchanger geometry and operational parameters, the problem is numerically solved using the shooting method. The simulation allows the prediction of the temperature map in the heat exchanger and hence, the evaluation of its performances. A parametric analysis is performed to evaluate the influence of the R-parameter on the e-NTU values. For practical purposes effectiveness-NTU graphs are elaborated for specific heat exchanger geometry and different operating conditions.

The Approximate Solution of Linear Fuzzy Fredholm Integral Equations of the Second Kind by Using Iterative Interpolation

in this paper, we propose a numerical method for the approximate solution of fuzzy Fredholm functional integral equations of the second kind by using an iterative interpolation. For this purpose, we convert the linear fuzzy Fredholm integral equations to a crisp linear system of integral equations. The proposed method is illustrated by some fuzzy integral equations in numerical examples.

Integrating Visual Modeling throughout the Computer Science Curriculum

The purposes of this paper are to (1) promote excellence in computer science by suggesting a cohesive innovative approach to fill well documented deficiencies in current computer science education, (2) justify (using the authors- and others anecdotal evidence from both the classroom and the real world) why this approach holds great potential to successfully eliminate the deficiencies, (3) invite other professionals to join the authors in proof of concept research. The authors- experiences, though anecdotal, strongly suggest that a new approach involving visual modeling technologies should allow computer science programs to retain a greater percentage of prospective and declared majors as students become more engaged learners, more successful problem-solvers, and better prepared as programmers. In addition, the graduates of such computer science programs will make greater contributions to the profession as skilled problem-solvers. Instead of wearily rememorizing code as they move to the next course, students will have the problem-solving skills to think and work in more sophisticated and creative ways.

Database Compression for Intelligent On-board Vehicle Controllers

The vehicle fleet of public transportation companies is often equipped with intelligent on-board passenger information systems. A frequently used but time and labor-intensive way for keeping the on-board controllers up-to-date is the manual update using different memory cards (e.g. flash cards) or portable computers. This paper describes a compression algorithm that enables data transmission using low bandwidth wireless radio networks (e.g. GPRS) by minimizing the amount of data traffic. In typical cases it reaches a compression rate of an order of magnitude better than that of the general purpose compressors. Compressed data can be easily expanded by the low-performance controllers, too.

Determining the Workability of the New Metallurgical Materials

The aim of this paper is to experimentally discover the workability coefficient of the Inconel 718 material by using a slide turning machining. Two different types of cutting inserts, one made of carbide and the other one made of ceramic, are being used. The purpose is to compare measured results and recommend the appropriate materials and cutting parameters for a machining of the Inconel 718. Furthermore, the durability of inserts with the chosen wear criterion is being compared for different cutting speeds. Machinability of these materials is a crucial characteristic as it allows us to shorten the technological cycle time and increase the machining productivity. And this is of great importance from an economic point of view.

Development of Neural Network Prediction Model of Energy Consumption

In the oil and gas industry, energy prediction can help the distributor and customer to forecast the outgoing and incoming gas through the pipeline. It will also help to eliminate any uncertainties in gas metering for billing purposes. The objective of this paper is to develop Neural Network Model for energy consumption and analyze the performance model. This paper provides a comprehensive review on published research on the energy consumption prediction which focuses on structures and the parameters used in developing Neural Network models. This paper is then focused on the parameter selection of the neural network prediction model development for energy consumption and analysis on the result. The most reliable model that gives the most accurate result is proposed for the prediction. The result shows that the proposed neural network energy prediction model is able to demonstrate an adequate performance with least Root Mean Square Error.

Analysis of Investment in Knowledge inside OECD Countries

Knowledge is the foundation for growth and development. Investment in knowledge improves new method for originate knowledge society and knowledge economy. Investment in knowledge embraces expenditure on education and R&D and software. Measuring of investment in knowledge is characteristically complicated. We examine the influence of investment in knowledge in multifactor productivity growth and numbers of patent. We analyze the annual growth of investment in knowledge and we estimate portion of each country intended for produce total investment in knowledge on the whole OECD. We determine the relative efficiency of average patent numbers with average investment in knowledge and we compare GDP growth rates and growth of knowledge investment. The main purpose in this paper is to study to evaluate different aspect, influence and output of investment in knowledge in OECD countries.

A High Accuracy Measurement Circuit for Soil Moisture Detection

The study of soil for agriculture purposes has remained the main focus of research since the beginning of civilization as humans- food related requirements remained closely linked with the soil. The study of soil has generated an interest among the researchers for very similar other reasons including transmission, reflection and refraction of signals for deploying wireless underground sensor networks or for the monitoring of objects on (or in ) soil in the form of better understanding of soil electromagnetic characteristics properties. The moisture content has been very instrumental in such studies as it decides on the resistance of the soil, and hence the attenuation on signals traveling through soil or the attenuation the signals may suffer upon their impact on soil. This work is related testing and characterizing a measurement circuit meant for the detection of moisture level content in soil.

Motivation Factors to Influence the Decision to Choose Thai Fabric

The purpose of this research was to study the motivation factors to influence the decision to choose Thai Fabric. A multiple-stage sample was utilized to collect 400 samples from working women who had diverse occupations all over Thailand. This research was a quantitative analysis and questionnaire was used a tool to collect data. Descriptive statistics used in this research included percentage, average, and standard deviation and inferential statistics included hypothesis testing of one way ANOVA. The research findings revealed that demographic factors and social factors had an influence to the positive idea of wearing Thai fabric (F = 5.377, P value < 0.05). The respondents who had the age over 41 years old had a better positive idea of wearing Thai fabric than other groups. Moreover, the findings revealed that age had influenced the positive idea of wearing Thai fabric (F = 3.918, P value < 0.05). The respondents who had the age over 41 years old also had stronger believe that wearing Thai fabric to work and social gatherings are socially acceptable than other groups.

Effect of Blade Number on a Straight-Bladed Vertical-Axis Darreius Wind Turbine

This paper presents a mean for reducing the torque variation during the revolution of a vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) by increasing the blade number. For this purpose, twodimensional CDF analysis have been performed on a straight-bladed Darreius-type rotor. After describing the computational model, a complete campaign of simulations based on full RANS unsteady calculations is proposed for a three, four and five-bladed rotor architecture characterized by a NACA 0025 airfoil. For each proposed rotor configuration, flow field characteristics are investigated at several values of tip speed ratio, allowing a quantification of the influence of blade number on flow geometric features and dynamic quantities, such as rotor torque and power. Finally, torque and power curves are compared for the analyzed architectures, achieving a quantification of the effect of blade number on overall rotor performance.

Influence of Raw Materials Ratio and Sintering Temperature on the Properties of the Refractory Mullite-Corundum Ceramics

The alumosilicate ceramics with mullite crystalline phase are used in various branches of science and technique. The mullite refractory ceramics with high porosity serve as a heat insulator and as a constructional materials [1], [2]. The purpose of the work was to sinter high porosity ceramic and to increase the quantity of mullite phase in this mullite, mullite-corundum ceramics. Two types of compositions were prepared at during the experiment. The first type is compositions with commercial alumina and silica oxides. The second type is from mixing these oxides with 10, 20 and 30 wt.%. of kaolin. In all samples the Al2O3 and SiO2 were in 2.57:1 ratio, because that was conformed to mullite stechiometric compositions (3Al2O3.2SiO2). The types of alumina oxides were α-Al2O3 (d50=4µm) and γ-Al2O3 (d50=80µm). Ratios of α-: γ-Al2O3 were (1:1) or (1:3). The porous materials were prepared by slip casting of suspension of raw materials. The aluminium paste (0.18 wt.%) was used as a pore former. Water content in the suspensions was 26-47 wt.%. Pore formation occurred as a result of hydrogen formation in chemical reaction between aluminium paste and water [2]. The samples were sintered at the temperature of 1650°C and 1750°C for one hour. The increasing amount of kaolin, α-: γ-Al2O3 at the ratio (1:3) and sintering at the highest temperature raised the quantity of mullite phase. The mullite phase began to dominate over the corundum phase.

Classification Control for Discrimination between Interictal Epileptic and Non – Epileptic Pathological EEG Events

In this study, the problem of discriminating between interictal epileptic and non- epileptic pathological EEG cases, which present episodic loss of consciousness, investigated. We verify the accuracy of the feature extraction method of autocross-correlated coefficients which extracted and studied in previous study. For this purpose we used in one hand a suitable constructed artificial supervised LVQ1 neural network and in other a cross-correlation technique. To enforce the above verification we used a statistical procedure which based on a chi- square control. The classification and the statistical results showed that the proposed feature extraction is a significant accurate method for diagnostic discrimination cases between interictal and non-interictal EEG events and specifically the classification procedure showed that the LVQ neural method is superior than the cross-correlation one.

Mining Educational Data to Analyze the Student Motivation Behavior

The purpose of this research aims to discover the knowledge for analysis student motivation behavior on e-Learning based on Data Mining Techniques, in case of the Information Technology for Communication and Learning Course at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The data mining techniques was applied in this research including association rules, classification techniques. The results showed that using data mining technique can indicate the important variables that influence the student motivation behavior on e-Learning.

Analysis of Meteorological Drought in the Ruhr Basin by Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought is one of the most damaging climate-related hazards, it is generally considered as a prolonged absence of precipitation. This normal and recurring climate phenomenon had plagued civilization throughout history because of the negative impacts on economical, environmental and social sectors. Drought characteristics are thus recognized as important factors in water resources planning and management. The purpose of this study is to detect the changes in drought frequency, persistence and severity in the Ruhr river basin. The frequency of drought events was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Used data are daily precipitation records from seven meteorological stations covering the period 1961-2007. The main benefit of the application of this index is its versatility, only rainfall data is required to deliver five major dimensions of a drought : duration, intensity, severity, magnitude, and frequency. Furthermore, drought can be calculated in different time steps. In this study SPI was calculated for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. Several drought events were detected in the covered period, these events contain mild, moderate and severe droughts. Also positive and negative trends in the SPI values were observed.