Abstract: The prediction of meteorological parameters at a
meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder
linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the
grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data
points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we
consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and
the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term
prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy
predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a
comparison between local and global prediction schemes.
Abstract: In wireless and mobile communications, this progress
provides opportunities for introducing new standards and improving
existing services. Supporting multimedia traffic with wireless networks
quality of service (QoS). In this paper, a grey-fuzzy controller for radio
resource management (GF-RRM) is presented to maximize the number
of the served calls and QoS provision in wireless networks. In a
wireless network, the call arrival rate, the call duration and the
communication overhead between the base stations and the control
center are vague and uncertain. In this paper, we develop a method to
predict the cell load and to solve the RRM problem based on the
GF-RRM, and support the present facility has been built on the
application-level of the wireless networks. The GF-RRM exhibits the
better adaptability, fault-tolerant capability and performance than other
algorithms. Through simulations, we evaluate the blocking rate, update
overhead, and channel acquisition delay time of the proposed method.
The results demonstrate our algorithm has the lower blocking rate, less
updated overhead, and shorter channel acquisition delay.
Abstract: In this paper, we consider a two-neuron system with time-delayed connections between neurons. By analyzing the associated characteristic transcendental equation, its linear stability is investigated and Hopf bifurcation is demonstrated. Some explicit formulae for determining the stability and the direction of the Hopf bifurcation periodic solutions bifurcating from Hopf bifurcations are obtained by using the normal form theory and center manifold theory. Some numerical simulation results are given to support the theoretical predictions. Finally, main conclusions are given.
Abstract: this paper presents an auto-regressive network called the Auto-Regressive Multi-Context Recurrent Neural Network (ARMCRN), which forecasts the daily peak load for two large power plant systems. The auto-regressive network is a combination of both recurrent and non-recurrent networks. Weather component variables are the key elements in forecasting because any change in these variables affects the demand of energy load. So the AR-MCRN is used to learn the relationship between past, previous, and future exogenous and endogenous variables. Experimental results show that using the change in weather components and the change that occurred in past load as inputs to the AR-MCRN, rather than the basic weather parameters and past load itself as inputs to the same network, produce higher accuracy of predicted load. Experimental results also show that using exogenous and endogenous variables as inputs is better than using only the exogenous variables as inputs to the network.
Abstract: This paper presents a cold flow simulation study of a small gas turbine combustor performed using laboratory scale test rig. The main objective of this investigation is to obtain physical insight of the main vortex, responsible for the efficient mixing of fuel and air. Such models are necessary for predictions and optimization of real gas turbine combustors. Air swirler can control the combustor performance by assisting in the fuel-air mixing process and by producing recirculation region which can act as flame holders and influences residence time. Thus, proper selection of a swirler is needed to enhance combustor performance and to reduce NOx emissions. Three different axial air swirlers were used based on their vane angles i.e., 30°, 45°, and 60°. Three-dimensional, viscous, turbulent, isothermal flow characteristics of the combustor model operating at room temperature were simulated via Reynolds- Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) code. The model geometry has been created using solid model, and the meshing has been done using GAMBIT preprocessing package. Finally, the solution and analysis were carried out in a FLUENT solver. This serves to demonstrate the capability of the code for design and analysis of real combustor. The effects of swirlers and mass flow rate were examined. Details of the complex flow structure such as vortices and recirculation zones were obtained by the simulation model. The computational model predicts a major recirculation zone in the central region immediately downstream of the fuel nozzle and a second recirculation zone in the upstream corner of the combustion chamber. It is also shown that swirler angles changes have significant effects on the combustor flowfield as well as pressure losses.
Abstract: In this treatise we will study the capability of static
compensator for reactive power to stabilize sheen voltage with motor
loading on power networks system. We also explain the structure and main function of STATCOM and the method to control it using STATCOM transformer current to simultaneously predict after
telling about the necessity of FACTS tools to compensate in power networks. Then we study topology and controlling system to stabilize
voltage during start of inductive motor. The outcome of stimulat by MATLAB software supports presented controlling idea and
system in the treatise.
Abstract: In this study, an inland metropolitan area, Gwangju, in Korea was selected to assess the amplification potential of earthquake motion and provide the information for regional seismic countermeasure. A geographic information system-based expert system was implemented for reliably predicting the spatial geotechnical layers in the entire region of interesting by building a geo-knowledge database. Particularly, the database consists of the existing boring data gathered from the prior geotechnical projects and the surface geo-knowledge data acquired from the site visit. For practical application of the geo-knowledge database to estimate the earthquake hazard potential related to site amplification effects at the study area, seismic zoning maps on geotechnical parameters, such as the bedrock depth and the site period, were created within GIS framework. In addition, seismic zonation of site classification was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design at any site in the study area. KeywordsEarthquake hazard, geo-knowledge, geographic information system, seismic zonation, site period.
Abstract: In any trust model, the two information sources that a peer relies on to predict trustworthiness of another peer are direct experience as well as reputation. These two vital components evolve over time. Trust evolution is an important issue, where the objective is to observe a sequence of past values of a trust parameter and determine the future estimates. Unfortunately, trust evolution algorithms received little attention and the proposed algorithms in the literature do not comply with the conditions and the nature of trust. This paper contributes to this important problem in the following ways: (a) presents an algorithm that manages and models trust evolution in a P2P environment, (b) devises new mechanisms for effectively maintaining trust values based on the conditions that influence trust evolution , and (c) introduces a new methodology for incorporating trust-nurture incentives into the trust evolution algorithm. Simulation experiments are carried out to evaluate our trust evolution algorithm.
Abstract: Bioinformatics methods for predicting the T cell
coreceptor usage from the array of membrane protein of HIV-1 are
investigated. In this study, we aim to propose an effective prediction
method for dealing with the three-class classification problem of
CXCR4 (X4), CCR5 (R5) and CCR5/CXCR4 (R5X4). We made
efforts in investigating the coreceptor prediction problem as follows: 1)
proposing a feature set of informative physicochemical properties
which is cooperated with SVM to achieve high prediction test
accuracy of 81.48%, compared with the existing method with
accuracy of 70.00%; 2) establishing a large up-to-date data set by
increasing the size from 159 to 1225 sequences to verify the proposed
prediction method where the mean test accuracy is 88.59%, and 3)
analyzing the set of 14 informative physicochemical properties to
further understand the characteristics of HIV-1coreceptors.
Abstract: This paper presents a simple method for estimation of
additional load as a factor of the existing load that may be drawn
before reaching the point of line maximum loadability of radial
distribution system (RDS) with different realistic load models at
different substation voltages. The proposed method involves a simple
line loadability index (LLI) that gives a measure of the proximity of
the present state of a line in the distribution system. The LLI can use
to assess voltage instability and the line loading margin. The
proposed method also compares with the existing method of
maximum loadability index [10]. The simulation results show that the
LLI can identify not only the weakest line/branch causing system
instability but also the system voltage collapse point when it is near
one. This feature enables us to set an index threshold to monitor and
predict system stability on-line so that a proper action can be taken to
prevent the system from collapse. To demonstrate the validity of the
proposed algorithm, computer simulations are carried out on two bus
and 69 bus RDS.
Abstract: Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.
Abstract: The structural interpretation of a part of eastern Potwar
(Missa Keswal) has been carried out with available seismological,
seismic and well data. Seismological data contains both the source
parameters and fault plane solution (FPS) parameters and seismic data
contains ten seismic lines that were re-interpreted by using well data.
Structural interpretation depicts two broad types of fault sets namely,
thrust and back thrust faults. These faults together give rise to pop up
structures in the study area and also responsible for many structural
traps and seismicity. Seismic interpretation includes time and depth
contour maps of Chorgali Formation while seismological interpretation
includes focal mechanism solution (FMS), depth, frequency,
magnitude bar graphs and renewal of Seismotectonic map. The Focal
Mechanism Solutions (FMS) that surrounds the study area are
correlated with the different geological and structural maps of the area
for the determination of the nature of subsurface faults. Results of
structural interpretation from both seismic and seismological data
show good correlation. It is hoped that the present work will help in
better understanding of the variations in the subsurface structure and
can be a useful tool for earthquake prediction, planning of oil field and
reservoir monitoring.
Abstract: The paper describes a knowledge based system for
analysis of microscopic wear particles. Wear particles contained in
lubricating oil carry important information concerning machine
condition, in particular the state of wear. Experts (Tribologists) in the
field extract this information to monitor the operation of the machine
and ensure safety, efficiency, quality, productivity, and economy of
operation. This procedure is not always objective and it can also be
expensive. The aim is to classify these particles according to their
morphological attributes of size, shape, edge detail, thickness ratio,
color, and texture, and by using this classification thereby predict
wear failure modes in engines and other machinery. The attribute
knowledge links human expertise to the devised Knowledge Based
Wear Particle Analysis System (KBWPAS). The system provides an
automated and systematic approach to wear particle identification
which is linked directly to wear processes and modes that occur in
machinery. This brings consistency in wear judgment prediction
which leads to standardization and also less dependence on
Tribologists.
Abstract: This paper presents the prediction of air flow,
humidity and temperature patterns in a co-current pilot plant spray
dryer fitted with a pressure nozzle using a three dimensional model.
The modelling was done with a Computational Fluid Dynamic
package (Fluent 6.3), in which the gas phase is modelled as
continuum using the Euler approach and the droplet/ particle phase is
modelled by the Discrete Phase model (Lagrange approach).Good
agreement was obtained with published experimental data where the
CFD simulation correctly predicts a fast downward central flowing
core and slow recirculation zones near the walls. In this work, the
effects of the air flow pattern on droplets trajectories, residence time
distribution of droplets and deposition of the droplets on the wall also
were investigated where atomizing of maltodextrin solution was
used.
Abstract: This study had two goals. First, it investigated marital
interaction variables as predictors of treatment outcome in panic
disorder with agoraphobia (PDA) in sixty-five couples with one
spouse suffering from PDA. Second, it analyzed the impact of PDA
improvement, following therapy, on marital interaction patterns of
both spouses. The partners were observed during a problem-solving
task, before and after treatment. Negative behaviors at the outset of
therapy, both in the PDA and the NPDA partners, predicted less
improvement at post-test. It also appears that improvement in some
PDA symptoms following therapy is linked to increase in the
dominant behavior of the NPDA spouse and to an improvement in
terms of his intrusiveness.
Abstract: In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy
System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the
prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries.
We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model.
We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system
in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and can be a very
useful alternative tool used by the national statistical services and the
banking and finance industry.
Abstract: Considering the numerous applications of the study of
the flow due to leakage in a buried pipe
in unsaturated porous media, finding a proper model to explain the
influence of the effective factors is of great importance.There are
various important factors involved in this type of flow such as: pipe
leakage size and location, burial depth, the degree of the saturation of
the surrounding porous medium, characteristics of the porous
medium, fluid type and pressure of the upstream.In this study, the
flow through unsaturated porous media due to leakage of a buried
pipe for up and down leakage location is studied experimentally and
numerically and their results are compared. Study results show that
Darcy equation together with BCM method (for calculating the
relative permeability) have suitable ability for predicting the flow due
to leakage of buried pipes in unsaturated porous media.
Abstract: One of the major parts of a jet engine is air intake,
which provides proper and required amount of air for the engine to
operate. There are several aerodynamic parameters which should be
considered in design, such as distortion, pressure recovery, etc. In
this research, the effects of lip ice accretion on pitot intake
performance are investigated. For ice accretion phenomenon, two
supervised multilayer neural networks (ANN) are designed, one for
ice shape prediction and another one for ice roughness estimation
based on experimental data. The Fourier coefficients of transformed
ice shape and parameters include velocity, liquid water content
(LWC), median volumetric diameter (MVD), spray time and
temperature are used in neural network training. Then, the subsonic
intake flow field is simulated numerically using 2D Navier-Stokes
equations and Finite Volume approach with Hybrid mesh includes
structured and unstructured meshes. The results are obtained in
different angles of attack and the variations of intake aerodynamic
parameters due to icing phenomenon are discussed. The results show
noticeable effects of ice accretion phenomenon on intake behavior.
Abstract: This paper describes the use of artificial neural
networks (ANN) for predicting non-linear layer moduli of flexible
airfield pavements subjected to new generation aircraft (NGA)
loading, based on the deflection profiles obtained from Heavy
Weight Deflectometer (HWD) test data. The HWD test is one of the
most widely used tests for routinely assessing the structural integrity
of airport pavements in a non-destructive manner. The elastic moduli
of the individual pavement layers backcalculated from the HWD
deflection profiles are effective indicators of layer condition and are
used for estimating the pavement remaining life. HWD tests were
periodically conducted at the Federal Aviation Administration-s
(FAA-s) National Airport Pavement Test Facility (NAPTF) to
monitor the effect of Boeing 777 (B777) and Beoing 747 (B747) test
gear trafficking on the structural condition of flexible pavement
sections. In this study, a multi-layer, feed-forward network which
uses an error-backpropagation algorithm was trained to approximate
the HWD backcalculation function. The synthetic database generated
using an advanced non-linear pavement finite-element program was
used to train the ANN to overcome the limitations associated with
conventional pavement moduli backcalculation. The changes in
ANN-based backcalculated pavement moduli with trafficking were
used to compare the relative severity effects of the aircraft landing
gears on the NAPTF test pavements.
Abstract: A three-dimensional and pulsatile blood flow in the left ventricle of heart model has been studied numerically. The geometry was derived from a simple approximation of the left ventricle model and the numerical simulations were obtained using a formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations. In this study, simulation was used to investigate the pattern of flow velocity in 3D model of heart with consider the left ventricle based on critical parameter of blood under steady condition. Our results demonstrate that flow velocity focused from mitral valve channel and continuous linearly to left ventricle wall but this skewness progresses into outside wall in atrium through aortic valve with random distribution that is irregular due to force subtract from ventricle wall during cardiac cycle. The findings are the prediction of the behavior of the blood flow velocity pattern in steady flow condition which can assist the medical practitioners in their decision on the patients- treatments.