Abstract: In this research which has been prepared to show the relationship between Gökova Bay’s morphotectonic structure and seismicity, it is clear that there are many active faults in the region. The existence of a thick sedimentary accumulation since Late Quaternary times is obvious as a result of the geophysical workings in the region and the interpretation of seismic data which has been planning to be taken from the Bay. In the regions which have been tectonically active according to the interpretation of the taken data, the existence of the successive earthquakes in the last few years is remarkable. By analyzing large earthquakes affecting the areas remaining inside the sediments in West Anatolian Collapse System, this paper aims to reveal the fault systems constituting earthquakes with the information obtained from this study and to determine seismicity of the present residential areas right next to them. It is also aimed to anticipate the measures to be taken against possible earthquake hazards, to identify these areas posing a risk in terms of residential and urban planning and to determine at least partly the characteristics of the basin.
Abstract: In this study, an inland metropolitan area, Gwangju, in Korea was selected to assess the amplification potential of earthquake motion and provide the information for regional seismic countermeasure. A geographic information system-based expert system was implemented for reliably predicting the spatial geotechnical layers in the entire region of interesting by building a geo-knowledge database. Particularly, the database consists of the existing boring data gathered from the prior geotechnical projects and the surface geo-knowledge data acquired from the site visit. For practical application of the geo-knowledge database to estimate the earthquake hazard potential related to site amplification effects at the study area, seismic zoning maps on geotechnical parameters, such as the bedrock depth and the site period, were created within GIS framework. In addition, seismic zonation of site classification was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design at any site in the study area. KeywordsEarthquake hazard, geo-knowledge, geographic information system, seismic zonation, site period.
Abstract: Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics
in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake
occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main
subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is
estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the
Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research,
we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single
decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method
in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an
earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The
information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used
to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard
rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between
HRLPP and HRSD method.
Abstract: This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic
hazard assessment of Naghan, Iran. It displays the probabilistic
estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the
return period of 475, 950 and 2475 years. The output of the
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground
acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing
of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both
historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the
period from 840 to 2009. The seismic sources that affect the hazard
in Naghan were identified within the radius of 200 km and the
recurrence relationships of these sources were generated by Kijko
and Sellevoll. Finally Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA)
has been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Naghan for
different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.