Abstract: Forecasting the values of the indicators, which
characterize the effectiveness of performance of organizations is of
great importance for their successful development. Such forecasting
is necessary in order to assess the current state and to foresee future
developments, so that measures to improve the organization-s
activity could be undertaken in time. The article presents an
overview of the applied mathematical and statistical methods for
developing forecasts. Special attention is paid to artificial neural
networks as a forecasting tool. Their strengths and weaknesses are
analyzed and a synopsis is made of the application of artificial neural
networks in the field of forecasting of the values of different
education efficiency indicators. A method of evaluation of the
activity of universities using the Balanced Scorecard is proposed and
Key Performance Indicators for assessment of e-learning are
selected. Resulting indicators for the evaluation of efficiency of the
activity are proposed. An artificial neural network is constructed and
applied in the forecasting of the values of indicators for e-learning
efficiency on the basis of the KPI values.
Abstract: Abrasive waterjet is a novel machining process capable of processing wide range of hard-to-machine materials. This research addresses modeling and optimization of the process parameters for this machining technique. To model the process a set of experimental data has been used to evaluate the effects of various parameter settings in cutting 6063-T6 aluminum alloy. The process variables considered here include nozzle diameter, jet traverse rate, jet pressure and abrasive flow rate. Depth of cut, as one of the most important output characteristics, has been evaluated based on different parameter settings. The Taguchi method and regression modeling are used in order to establish the relationships between input and output parameters. The adequacy of the model is evaluated using analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique. The pairwise effects of process parameters settings on process response outputs are also shown graphically. The proposed model is then embedded into a Simulated Annealing algorithm to optimize the process parameters. The optimization is carried out for any desired values of depth of cut. The objective is to determine proper levels of process parameters in order to obtain a certain level of depth of cut. Computational results demonstrate that the proposed solution procedure is quite effective in solving such multi-variable problems.
Abstract: The objective of this manuscript is to find area under the plasma concentration- time curve (AUC) for multiple doses of salbutamol sulphate sustained release tablets (Ventolin® oral tablets SR 8 mg, GSK, Pakistan) in the group of 18 healthy adults by using computational mathematics techniques. Following the administration of 4 doses of Ventolin® tablets 12 hourly to 24 healthy human subjects and bioanalysis of obtained plasma samples, plasma drug concentration-time profile was constructed. AUC, an important pharmacokinetic parameter, was measured using integrated equation of multiple oral dose regimens. The approximated AUC was also calculated by using computational mathematics techniques such as repeated rectangular, repeated trapezium and repeated Simpson's rule and compared with exact value of AUC calculated by using integrated equation of multiple oral dose regimens to find best computational mathematics method that gives AUC values closest to exact. The exact values of AUC for four consecutive doses of Ventolin® oral tablets were 150.5819473, 157.8131756, 164.4178231 and 162.78 ng.h/ml while the closest values approximated AUC values were 149.245962, 157.336171, 164.2585768 and 162.289224 ng.h/ml, respectively as found by repeated rectangular rule. The errors in the approximated values of AUC were negligible. It is concluded that all computational tools approximated values of AUC accurately but the repeated rectangular rule gives slightly better approximated values of AUC as compared to repeated trapezium and repeated Simpson's rules.
Abstract: Adopting Zakowski-s upper approximation operator
C and lower approximation operator C, this paper investigates
granularity-wise separations in covering approximation spaces. Some
characterizations of granularity-wise separations are obtained by
means of Pawlak rough sets and some relations among granularitywise
separations are established, which makes it possible to research
covering approximation spaces by logical methods and mathematical
methods in computer science. Results of this paper give further
applications of Pawlak rough set theory in pattern recognition and
artificial intelligence.
Abstract: Investigations of the unimolecular decomposition of
vinyl ethyl ether (VEE), vinyl propyl ether (VPE) and vinyl butyl
ether (VBE) have shown that activation of the molecule of a ether
results in formation of a cyclic construction - the transition state (TS),
which may lead to the displacement of the thermodynamic
equilibrium towards the reaction products. The TS is obtained by
applying energy minimization relative to the ground state of an ether
under the program MM2 when taking into account the hydrogen bond
formation between a hydrogen atom of alkyl residue and the extreme
atom of carbon of the vinyl group. The dissociation of TS up to the
products is studied by energy minimization procedure using the
mathematical program Gaussian. The obtained calculation data for
VEE testify that the decomposition of this ether may be conditioned
by hydrogen bond formation for two possible versions: when α- or β-
hydrogen atoms of the ethyl group are bound to carbon atom of the
vinyl group. Applying the same calculation methods to other ethers
(VPE and VBE) it is shown that only in the case of hydrogen bonding
between α-hydrogen atom of the alkyl residue and the extreme atom
of carbon of the vinyl group (αH---C) results in decay of theses
ethers.
Abstract: The storage of thermal energy as a latent heat of phase
change material (PCM) has created considerable interest among
researchers in recent times. Here, an attempt is made to carry out
numerical investigations to analyze the performance of latent heat
storage units (LHSU) employing phase change material. The
mathematical model developed is based on an enthalpy formulation.
Freezing time of PCM packed in three different shaped containers
viz. rectangular, cylindrical and cylindrical shell is compared. The
model is validated with the results available in the literature. Results
show that for the same mass of PCM and surface area of heat
transfer, cylindrical shell container takes the least time for freezing
the PCM and this geometric effect is more pronounced with an
increase in the thickness of the shell than that of length of the shell.
Abstract: Electromagnetic flow meter by measuring the varying of magnetic flux, which is related to the velocity of conductive flow, can measure the rate of fluids very carefully and precisely. Electromagnetic flow meter operation is based on famous Faraday's second Law. In these equipments, the constant magnetostatic field is produced by electromagnet (winding around the tube) outside of pipe and inducting voltage that is due to conductive liquid flow is measured by electrodes located on two end side of the pipe wall. In this research, we consider to 2-dimensional mathematical model that can be solved by numerical finite difference (FD) solution approach to calculate induction potential between electrodes. The fundamental concept to design the electromagnetic flow meter, exciting winding and simulations are come out by using MATLAB and PDE-Tool software. In the last stage, simulations results will be shown for improvement and accuracy of technical provision.
Abstract: In this article the homotopy continuation method (HCM) to solve the forward kinematic problem of the 3-PRS parallel manipulator is used. Since there are many difficulties in solving the system of nonlinear equations in kinematics of manipulators, the numerical solutions like Newton-Raphson are inevitably used. When dealing with any numerical solution, there are two troublesome problems. One is that good initial guesses are not easy to detect and another is related to whether the used method will converge to useful solutions. Results of this paper reveal that the homotopy continuation method can alleviate the drawbacks of traditional numerical techniques.
Abstract: This paper deals with the application of a fuzzy set in
measuring teachers- beliefs about mathematics. The vagueness of
beliefs was transformed into standard mathematical values using a
fuzzy preferences model. The study employed a fuzzy approach
questionnaire which consists of six attributes for measuring
mathematics teachers- beliefs about mathematics. The fuzzy conjoint
analysis approach based on fuzzy set theory was used to analyze the
data from twenty three mathematics teachers from four secondary
schools in Terengganu, Malaysia. Teachers- beliefs were recorded in
form of degrees of similarity and its levels of agreement. The
attribute 'Drills and practice is one of the best ways of learning
mathematics' scored the highest degree of similarity at 0. 79860 with
level of 'strongly agree'. The results showed that the teachers- beliefs
about mathematics were varied. This is shown by different levels of
agreement and degrees of similarity of the measured attributes.
Abstract: A mathematical model based on a mass and energy
balance for the combustion in a cement rotary kiln was developed.
The model was used to investigate the impact of replacing about
45 % of the primary coal energy by different alternative fuels.
Refuse derived fuel, waste wood, solid hazardous waste and liquid
hazardous waste were used in the modeling. The results showed that
in order to keep the kiln temperature unchanged, and thereby
maintain the required clinker quality, the production capacity had to
be reduced by 1-15 %, depending on the fuel type. The reason for the
reduction is increased exhaust gas flow rates caused by the fuel
characteristics. The model, which has been successfully validated in a
full-scale experiment, was also used to show that the negative impact
on the production capacity can be avoided if a relatively small part of
the combustion air is replaced by pure oxygen.
Abstract: This work presents a methodology for the design and
manufacture of propellers oriented to the experimental verification of
theoretical results based on the combined model. The design process
begins by using algorithms in Matlab which output data contain the
coordinates of the points that define the blade airfoils, in this case the
NACA 6512 airfoil was used. The modeling for the propeller blade
was made in NX7, through the imported files in Matlab and with the
help of surfaces. Later, the hub and the clamps were also modeled.
Finally, NX 7 also made possible to create post-processed files to the
required machine. It is possible to find the block of numbers with G
& M codes about the type of driver on the machine. The file
extension is .ptp. These files made possible to manufacture the blade,
and the hub of the propeller.
Abstract: This paper presents the system identification by
physical-s law method and designs the controller for the Azimuth
Angle Control of the Platform of the Multi-Launcher Rocket System
(MLRS) by Root Locus technique. The plant mathematical model
was approximated using MATLAB for simulation and analyze the
system. The controller proposes the implementation of PID
Controller using Programmable Logic Control (PLC) for control the
plant. PID Controllers are widely applicable in industrial sectors and
can be set up easily and operate optimally for enhanced productivity,
improved quality and reduce maintenance requirement. The results
from simulation and experiments show that the proposed a PID
Controller to control the elevation angle that has superior control
performance by the setting time less than 12 sec, the rise time less
than 1.6 sec., and zero steady state. Furthermore, the system has a
high over shoot that will be continue development.
Abstract: Simulation accuracy by recent dynamic vehicle
simulation multidimensional expression significantly has progressed
and acceptable results not only for passive vehicles but also for
active vehicles normally equipped with advanced electronic
components is also provided. Recently, one of the subjects that has it
been considered, is increasing the safety car in design. Therefore,
many efforts have been done to increase vehicle stability especially
in the turn. One of the most important efforts is adjusting the camber
angle in the car suspension system. Optimum control camber angle in
addition to the vehicle stability is effective in the wheel adhesion on
road, reducing rubber abrasion and acceleration and braking. Since
the increase or decrease in the camber angle impacts on the stability
of vehicles, in this paper, a car suspension system mechanism is
introduced that could be adjust camber angle and the mechanism is
application and also inexpensive. In order to reach this purpose, in
this paper, a passive double wishbone suspension system with
variable camber angle is introduced and then variable camber
mechanism designed and analyzed for study the designed system
performance, this mechanism is modeled in Visual Nastran software
and kinematic analysis is revealed.
Abstract: The tubes in an Ammonia primary reformer furnace
operate close to the limits of materials technology in terms of the
stress induced as a result of very high temperatures, combined with
large differential pressures across the tube wall. Operation at tube
wall temperatures significantly above design can result in a rapid
increase in the number of tube failures, since tube life is very
sensitive to the absolute operating temperature of the tube. Clearly it
is important to measure tube wall temperatures accurately in order to
prevent premature tube failure by overheating.. In the present study,
the catalyst tubes in an Ammonia primary reformer has been modeled
taking into consideration heat, mass and momentum transfer as well
as reformer characteristics.. The investigations concern the effects of
tube characteristics and superficial tube wall temperatures on of the
percentage of heat flux, unconverted methane and production of
Hydrogen for various values of steam to carbon ratios. The results
show the impact of catalyst tubes length and diameters on the
performance of operating parameters in ammonia primary reformers.
Abstract: Cross layer optimization based on utility functions has
been recently studied extensively, meanwhile, numerous types of
utility functions have been examined in the corresponding literature.
However, a major drawback is that most utility functions take a fixed
mathematical form or are based on simple combining, which can
not fully exploit available information. In this paper, we formulate a
framework of cross layer optimization based on Adaptively Weighted
Utility Functions (AWUF) for fairness balancing in OFDMA networks.
Under this framework, a two-step allocation algorithm is
provided as a sub-optimal solution, whose control parameters can be
updated in real-time to accommodate instantaneous QoS constrains.
The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm achieves
high throughput while balancing the fairness among multiple users.
Abstract: In this research, a systematic investigation was carried out to determine the optimum conditions of HDS reactor. Moreover, a suitable model was developed for a rigorous RTO (real time optimization) loop of HDS (Hydro desulfurization) process. A systematic experimental series was designed based on CCD (Central Composite design) and carried out in the related pilot plant to tune the develop model. The designed variables in the experiments were Temperature, LHSV and pressure. However, the hydrogen over fresh feed ratio was remained constant. The ranges of these variables were respectively equal to 320-380ºC, 1- 21/hr and 50-55 bar. a power law kinetic model was also developed for our further research in the future .The rate order and activation energy , power of reactant concentration and frequency factor of this model was respectively equal to 1.4, 92.66 kJ/mol and k0=2.7*109 .
Abstract: The paper deals with the possibilities of modelling
vapour propagation of explosive substances in the FLUENT
software. With regard to very low tensions of explosive substance
vapours the experiment has been verified as exemplified by
mononitrotoluene. Either constant or time variable meteorological
conditions have been used for calculation. Further, it has been
verified that the eluent source may be time-dependent and may reflect
a real situation or the liberation rate may be constant. The execution
of the experiment as well as evaluation were clear and it could also
be used for modelling vapour and aerosol propagation of selected
explosive substances in the atmospheric boundary layer.
Abstract: This paper discusses a systematic design of a Σ-Δ fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop based on HDL behavioral modeling. The proposed design consists in describing the mixed behavior of this PLL architecture starting from the specifications of each building block. The HDL models of critical PLL blocks have been described in VHDL-AMS to predict the different specifications of the PLL. The effect of different noise sources has been efficiently introduced to study the PLL system performances. The obtained results are compared with transistor-level simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed models for wireless applications in the frequency range around 2.45 GHz.
Abstract: Global approximation using metamodel for complex
mathematical function or computer model over a large variable
domain is often needed in sensibility analysis, computer simulation,
optimal control, and global design optimization of complex, multiphysics
systems. To overcome the limitations of the existing
response surface (RS), surrogate or metamodel modeling methods for
complex models over large variable domain, a new adaptive and
regressive RS modeling method using quadratic functions and local
area model improvement schemes is introduced. The method applies
an iterative and Latin hypercube sampling based RS update process,
divides the entire domain of design variables into multiple cells,
identifies rougher cells with large modeling error, and further divides
these cells along the roughest dimension direction. A small number
of additional sampling points from the original, expensive model are
added over the small and isolated rough cells to improve the RS
model locally until the model accuracy criteria are satisfied. The
method then combines local RS cells to regenerate the global RS
model with satisfactory accuracy. An effective RS cells sorting
algorithm is also introduced to improve the efficiency of model
evaluation. Benchmark tests are presented and use of the new
metamodeling method to replace complex hybrid electrical vehicle
powertrain performance model in vehicle design optimization and
optimal control are discussed.
Abstract: Thyroid dysfunction is one of the most frequently
reported complications of chronic blood transfusion therapy in patients with beta-thalassemia major (BTM). However, the occurrence of thyroid dysfunction and its possible association with
iron overload in BTM patients is still under debate. Therefore, this
study aimed to investigate the status of thyroid functions and iron overload in adolescent and young adult patients with BTM in Jordan population. Thirty six BTM patients aged 12-28 years and matched controls were included in this study. All patients have been receiving frequent blood transfusion to maintain pretransfusion hemoglobin
concentration above 10 g dl-1 and deferoxamine at a dose of 45 mg kg-1 day-1 (8 h, 5-7 days/week) by subcutaneous infusion. Blood
samples were drawn from patients and controls. The status of thyroid functions and iron overload was evaluated by measurements of serum
free thyroxine (FT4), triiodothyronine (FT3), thyrotropin (TSH) and
serum ferritin level. A number of some hematological and
biochemical parameters were also measured. It was found that hematocrit, serum ferritin, hemoglobin, FT3 and zinc, copper mean values were significantly higher in the patients than in the controls (P< 0.05). On other hand, leukocyte, FT4 and TSH mean values were
similar to that of the controls. In addition, our data also indicated that
all of the above examined parameters were not significantly affected
by the patient-s age and gender. Deferoxamine approach for removing excess iron from our BTM patient did not normalize the
values of serum ferritin, copper and zinc, suggesting poor compliance
with deferoxamine chelation therapy. Thus, we recommend the use
of a combination of deferoxamine and deferiprone to reduce the risk
of excess of iron in our patients. Furthermore, thyroid dysfunction
appears to be a rare complication, because our patients showed
normal mean levels for serum TSH and FT4. However, high mean
levels of serum ferritin, zinc, copper might be seen as potential risk
factors for initiation and development of thyroid dysfunctions and
other diseases. Therefore, further studies must be carried out at
yearly intervals with large sample number, to detect subclinical
thyroid dysfunction cases.