Abstract: The Spiral development model has been used
successfully in many commercial systems and in a good number of
defense systems. This is due to the fact that cost-effective
incremental commitment of funds, via an analogy of the spiral model
to stud poker and also can be used to develop hardware or integrate
software, hardware, and systems. To support adaptive, semantic
collaboration between domain experts and knowledge engineers, a
new knowledge engineering process, called Spiral_OWL is proposed.
This model is based on the idea of iterative refinement, annotation
and structuring of knowledge base. The Spiral_OWL model is
generated base on spiral model and knowledge engineering
methodology. A central paradigm for Spiral_OWL model is the
concentration on risk-driven determination of knowledge engineering
process. The collaboration aspect comes into play during knowledge
acquisition and knowledge validation phase. Design rationales for the
Spiral_OWL model are to be easy-to-implement, well-organized, and
iterative development cycle as an expanding spiral.
Abstract: The aim of this research is to design a collaborative
framework that integrates risk analysis activities into the geospatial
database design (GDD) process. Risk analysis is rarely undertaken
iteratively as part of the present GDD methods in conformance to
requirement engineering (RE) guidelines and risk standards.
Accordingly, when risk analysis is performed during the GDD, some
foreseeable risks may be overlooked and not reach the output
specifications especially when user intentions are not systematically
collected. This may lead to ill-defined requirements and ultimately in
higher risks of geospatial data misuse. The adopted approach consists
of 1) reviewing risk analysis process within the scope of RE and
GDD, 2) analyzing the challenges of risk analysis within the context
of GDD, and 3) presenting the components of a risk-based
collaborative framework that improves the collection of the
intended/forbidden usages of the data and helps geo-IT experts to
discover implicit requirements and risks.
Abstract: This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief
networks (BBN) as a higher level of health risk assessment for a
dumping site of lead battery smelter factory. On the basis of the
epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and
expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic
relationships between the hazardous substances and their adverse
health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity of the adverse
health effects. The provision of the morbidity rates of the related
diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of
conventional methods.
Abstract: This research proposes a Preemptive Possibilistic
Linear Programming (PPLP) approach for solving multiobjective
Aggregate Production Planning (APP) problem with interval demand
and imprecise unit price and related operating costs. The proposed
approach attempts to maximize profit and minimize changes of
workforce. It transforms the total profit objective that has imprecise
information to three crisp objective functions, which are maximizing
the most possible value of profit, minimizing the risk of obtaining the
lower profit and maximizing the opportunity of obtaining the higher
profit. The change of workforce level objective is also converted.
Then, the problem is solved according to objective priorities. It is
easier than simultaneously solve the multiobjective problem as
performed in existing approach. Possible range of interval demand is
also used to increase flexibility of obtaining the better production
plan. A practical application of an electronic company is illustrated to
show the effectiveness of the proposed model.
Abstract: This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a
hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the
recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of
individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak
of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate
between credit risk born by individual states despite different levels
of public indebtedness. In the proceeding of the financial crisis, the
market participants became aware of the worsening fiscal situation in
the European countries and started to discriminate among
government issuers. Concerns about the increasing sovereign risk
were reflected in surging sovereign risk premium. The main of this
paper is to shed light on the characteristics of the sovereign risk with
the special attention paid to the mutual relation between credit spread
and the CDS premium as the main measures of the sovereign risk
premium.
Abstract: Every commercial bank optimises its asset portfolio
depending on the profitability of assets and chosen or imposed
constraints. This paper proposes and applies a stylized model for
optimising banks' asset and liability structure, reflecting profitability
of different asset categories and their risks as well as costs associated
with different liability categories and reserve requirements. The level
of detail for asset and liability categories is chosen to create a
suitably parsimonious model and to include the most important
categories in the model. It is shown that the most appropriate
optimisation criterion for the model is the maximisation of the ratio
of net interest income to assets. The maximisation of this ratio is
subject to several constraints. Some are accounting identities or
dictated by legislative requirements; others vary depending on the
market objectives for a particular bank. The model predicts variable
amount of assets allocated to loan provision.
Abstract: Since the 1980s, banks and financial service institutions have been running in an endless race of innovation to cope with the advancing technology, the fierce competition, and the more sophisticated and demanding customers. In order to guide their innovation efforts, several researches were conducted to identify the success and failure factors of new financial services. These mainly included organizational factors, marketplace factors and new service development process factors. They almost all emphasized the importance of customer and market orientation as a response to the highly perceptual and intangible characteristics of financial services. However, they deemphasized the critical characteristics of high involvement of risk and close correlation with the economic conditions, a factor that heavily contributed to the Global financial Crisis of 2008. This paper reviews the success and failure factors of new financial services. It then adds new perspectives emerging from the analysis of the role of innovation in the global financial crisis.
Abstract: A dent is a gross distortion of the pipe cross-section.
Dent depth is defined as the maximum reduction in the diameter of
the pipe compared to the original diameter. Pipeline dent finite
element (FE) simulation and theoretical analysis are conducted in this
paper to develop an understanding of the geometric characteristics
and strain distribution in the pressurized dented pipe. Based on the
results, the magnitude of the denting force increases significantly
with increasing the internal pressure, and the maximum
circumferential and longitudinal strains increase by increasing the
internal pressure and the dent depth. The results can be used for
characterizing dents and ranking their risks to the integrity of a
pipeline.
Abstract: Matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP3) is key member
of the MMP family, and is known to be present in coronary
atherosclerotic. Several studies have demonstrated that MMP-3
5A/6A polymorphism modify each transcriptional activity in allele
specific manner. We hypothesized that this polymorphism may play
a role as risk factor for development of coronary stenosis. The aim of
our study was to estimate MMP-3 (5A/6A) gene polymorphism on
interindividual variability in risk for coronary stenosis in an Iranian
population.DNA was extracted from white blood cells and genotypes
were obtained from coronary stenosis cases (n=95) and controls
(n=100) by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and restriction
fragment length polymorphism techniques. Significant differences
between cases and controls were observed for MMP3 genotype
frequencies (X2=199.305, p< 0.001); the 6A allele was less
frequently seen in the control group, compared to the disease group
(85.79 vs. 78%, 6A/6A+5A/6A vs. 5A/5A, P≤0.001). These data
imply the involvement of -1612 5A/6A polymorphism in coronary
stenosis, and suggest that probably the 6A/6A MMP-3 genotype is a
genetic susceptibility factor for coronary stenosis.
Abstract: This study aimed to present the mechanical
performance evaluation of the dynamic hip screw (DHS) for
trochanteric fracture by means of finite element method. The
analyses were performed based on stainless steel and titanium
implant material definitions at various stages of bone healing and
including implant removal. The assessment of the mechanical
performance used two parameters, von Mises stress to evaluate the
strength of bone and implant and elastic strain to evaluate fracture
stability. The results show several critical aspects of dynamic hip
screw for trochanteric fracture stabilization. In the initial stage of
bone healing process, partial weight bearing should be applied to
avoid the implant failure. In the late stage of bone healing, stainless
steel implant should be removed.
Abstract: The distribution, enrichment, accumulation, and potential ecological risk of copper (Cu) in the surface sediments of northern Kaohsiung Harbor, Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from 12 locations of northern Kaohsiung Harbor were collected and characterized for Cu, aluminum, water content, organic matter, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, total grease and grain size. Results showed that the Cu concentrations varied from 6.9–244 mg/kg with an average of 109±66 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cu reveals that the Cu concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor entrance region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of Cu pollution. Results from the enrichment factor and geo-accumulation index analyses imply that the sediments collected from the river mouth can be characterized between moderate and moderately severe degree enrichment and between none to medium and moderate accumulation of Cu, respectively. However, results of potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low ecological potential risk.
Abstract: In rapidly changing market environment, firms are investing a lot of time and resources into new product development (NPD) projects to make profit and to obtain competitive advantage. However, failure rate of NPD projects is becoming high due to various internal and external risks which hinder successful NPD projects. To reduce the failure rate, it is critical that risks have to be managed effectively and efficiently through good strategy, and treated by optimal responses to minimize risk cost. Four strategies are adopted to handle the risks in this study. The optimal responses are characterized by high reduction of risk costs with high efficiency. This study suggests a framework to decide the optimal responses considering the core risks, risk costs, response efficiency and response costs for successful NPD projects. Both binary particles warm optimization (BPSO) and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) methods are mainly used in the framework. Although several limitations exist in use for real industries, the frame work shows good strength for handling the risks with highly scientific ways through an example.
Abstract: This paper proposes an improvement method of classification
efficiency in a classification model. The model is used
in a risk search system and extracts specific labels from articles
posted at bulletin board sites. The system can analyze the important
discussions composed of the articles. The improvement method
introduces ensemble learning methods that use multiple classification
models. Also, it introduces expressions related to the specific labels
into generation of word vectors. The paper applies the improvement
method to articles collected from three bulletin board sites selected
by users and verifies the effectiveness of the improvement method.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present two different
approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for
risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample
of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan
Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We
present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With
the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including
more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the
in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in
random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other
hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and
we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both
in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a
more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the
economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical
services.
Abstract: This paper aims to (1) analyze the profiles of
transgressors (detected evaders); (2) examine reason(s) that triggered a
tax audit, causes of tax evasion, audit timeframe and tax penalty
charged; and (3) to assess if tax auditors followed the guidelines as
stated in the 'Tax Audit Framework' when conducting tax audits. In
2011, the Inland Revenue Board Malaysia (IRBM) had audited and
finalized 557 company cases. With official permission, data of all the
557 cases were obtained from the IRBM. Of these, a total of 421 cases
with complete information were analyzed. About 58.1% was small and
medium corporations and from the construction industry (32.8%). The
selection for tax audit was based on risk analysis (66.8%), information
from third party (11.1%), and firm with low profitability or fluctuating
profit pattern (7.8%). The three persistent causes of tax evasion by
firms were over claimed expenses (46.8%), fraudulent reporting of
income (38.5%) and overstating purchases (10.5%). These findings
are consistent with past literature. Results showed that tax auditors
took six to 18 months to close audit cases. More than half of tax
evaders were fined 45% on additional tax raised during audit for the
first offence. The study found tax auditors did follow the guidelines in
the 'Tax Audit Framework' in audit selection, settlement and penalty
imposition.
Abstract: The healthcare environment is generally perceived as
being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack
of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends
in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from
application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this
study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant
patterns from the Coronary Heart Disease warehouses for heart
attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause
of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose,
we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the
reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique
associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to
validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to
identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large
amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on
the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts- knowledge in
this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the
disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge
relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is
developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The
performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based
on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.
Abstract: This paper implements the inventory model developed in the first part of this paper in a simplified problem to simultaneously reduce costs and risks in JIT systems. This model is developed to ascertain an optimal ordering strategy for procuring raw materials by using regular multi-external and local backup suppliers to reduce the total cost of the products, and at the same time to reduce the risks arising from this cost reduction within production systems. A comparison between the cost of using the JIT system and using the proposed inventory model shows the superiority of the use of the inventory model.
Abstract: Minor law breaking seems more and more to be a part
of adolescence behavior. An important risk factor which seems to
influence delinquency appears to be the socio-economic one.
According to Romanian statistics, during the first six months of 2012,
1,378 minors have committed various crimes, the most common
being theft, sexual offenses and violent assaults. Drug-related
offenses did not reach the gravity of those from high income
countries of the European Union, but have a continuous upward
during the last years.
The aim of our research was to examine whether delinquency in
adolescence is correlated to mental disorders or socio-economic and
familial factors. Forensic psychiatric expertise was performed to 79
adolescents who committed offenses between 01 January 2012 and
31 December 2012. Teenagers, with ages between 12 and 17, were
examined by day hospitalization in the University Clinic of
Psychiatry Craiova.
Abstract: Several models of vulnerability assessment have been proposed. The selection of one of these models depends on the objectives of the study. The classical methodologies for seismic vulnerability analysis, as a part of seismic risk analysis, have been formulated with statistical criteria based on a rapid observation. The information relating to the buildings performance is statistically elaborated. In this paper, we use the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98 to define the relationship between damage and macroseismic intensity to assess the seismic vulnerability. Applying to Algiers area, the first step is to identify building typologies and to assign vulnerability classes. In the second step, damages are investigated according to EMS-98.
Abstract: Deaths from cardiovascular diseases have decreased substantially over the past two decades, largely as a result of advances in acute care and cardiac surgery. These developments have produced a growing population of patients who have survived a myocardial infarction. These patients need to be continuously monitored so that the initiation of treatment can be given within the crucial golden hour. The available conventional methods of monitoring mostly perform offline analysis and restrict the mobility of these patients within a hospital or room. Hence the aim of this paper is to design a Portable Cardiac Telemedicine System to aid the patients to regain their independence and return to an active work schedule, there by improving the psychological well being. The portable telemedicine system consists of a Wearable ECG Transmitter (WET) and a slightly modified mobile phone, which has an inbuilt ECG analyzer. The WET is placed on the body of the patient that continuously acquires the ECG signals from the high-risk cardiac patients who can move around anywhere. This WET transmits the ECG to the patient-s Bluetooth enabled mobile phone using blue tooth technology. The ECG analyzer inbuilt in the mobile phone continuously analyzes the heartbeats derived from the received ECG signals. In case of any panic condition, the mobile phone alerts the patients care taker by an SMS and initiates the transmission of a sample ECG signal to the doctor, via the mobile network.