Abstract: Traffic Management and Information Systems, which rely on a system of sensors, aim to describe in real-time traffic in urban areas using a set of parameters and estimating them. Though the state of the art focuses on data analysis, little is done in the sense of prediction. In this paper, we describe a machine learning system for traffic flow management and control for a prediction of traffic flow problem. This new algorithm is obtained by combining Random Forests algorithm into Adaboost algorithm as a weak learner. We show that our algorithm performs relatively well on real data, and enables, according to the Traffic Flow Evaluation model, to estimate and predict whether there is congestion or not at a given time on road intersections.
Abstract: This study aims to demonstrate the quantification of
peptides based on isotope dilution surface enhanced Raman
scattering (IDSERS). SERS spectra of phenylalanine (Phe), leucine
(Leu) and two peptide sequences TGQIFK (T13) and
YSFLQNPQTSLCFSESIPTPSNR (T6) as part of the 22-kDa
human growth hormone (hGH) were obtained on Ag-nanoparticle
covered substrates. On the basis of the dominant Phe and Leu
vibrational modes, precise partial least squares (PLS) prediction
models were built enabling the determination of unknown T13 and
T6 concentrations. Detection of hGH in its physiological
concentration in order to investigate the possibility of protein
quantification has been achieved.
Abstract: Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.
Abstract: Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on
costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water
demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task
because the forecast model should consider variations in economic
progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is
further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by
large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious
occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to
handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for
Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed
based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors-
distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying
variables such as household income, household density, and
city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected
number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.
Abstract: NFκB activation plays a crucial role in anti-apoptotic responses in response to the apoptotic signaling during tumor necrosis factor (TNFa) stimulation in Multiple Myeloma (MM). Although several drugs have been found effective for the treatment of MM by mainly inhibiting NFκB pathway, there are no any quantitative or qualitative results of comparison assessment on inhibition effect between different single drugs or drug combinations. Computational modeling is becoming increasingly indispensable for applied biological research mainly because it can provide strong quantitative predicting power. In this study, a novel computational pathway modeling approach is employed to comparably assess the inhibition effects of specific single drugs and drug combinations on the NFκB pathway in MM, especially the prediction of synergistic drug combinations.
Abstract: Choosing the right metadata is a critical, as good
information (metadata) attached to an image will facilitate its
visibility from a pile of other images. The image-s value is enhanced
not only by the quality of attached metadata but also by the technique
of the search. This study proposes a technique that is simple but
efficient to predict a single human image from a website using the
basic image data and the embedded metadata of the image-s content
appearing on web pages. The result is very encouraging with the
prediction accuracy of 95%. This technique may become a great
assist to librarians, researchers and many others for automatically and
efficiently identifying a set of human images out of a greater set of
images.
Abstract: The drainage Estimating is an important factor in
dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector
regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at
Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a
suitable method in drainage estimating.
Abstract: Reliability is one of the most important quality attributes of software. Based on the approach of Reussner and the approach of Cheung, we proposed the reliability prediction model of component-based software architectures. Also, the value of the model is shown through the experimental evaluation on a web server system.
Abstract: A major requirement for Grid application developers is ensuring performance and scalability of their applications. Predicting the performance of an application demands understanding its specific features. This paper discusses performance modeling and prediction of multi-agent based simulation (MABS) applications on the Grid. An experiment conducted using a synthetic MABS workload explains the key features to be included in the performance model. The results obtained from the experiment show that the prediction model developed for the synthetic workload can be used as a guideline to understand to estimate the performance characteristics of real world simulation applications.
Abstract: In this paper back-propagation artificial neural
network (BPANN) with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm is
employed to predict the limiting drawing ratio (LDR) of the deep
drawing process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite
element simulations were carried out. die and punch radius, die arc
radius, friction coefficient, thickness, yield strength of sheet and
strain hardening exponent were used as the input data and the LDR
as the specified output used in the training of neural network. As a
result of the specified parameters, the program will be able to
estimate the LDR for any new given condition. Comparing FEM and
BPANN results, an acceptable correlation was found.
Abstract: The Prediction of aerodynamic characteristics and
shape optimization of airfoil under the ground effect have been carried
out by integration of computational fluid dynamics and the multiobjective
Pareto-based genetic algorithm. The main flow
characteristics around an airfoil of WIG craft are lift force, lift-to-drag
ratio and static height stability (H.S). However, they show a strong
trade-off phenomenon so that it is not easy to satisfy the design
requirements simultaneously. This difficulty can be resolved by the
optimal design. The above mentioned three characteristics are chosen
as the objective functions and NACA0015 airfoil is considered as a
baseline model in the present study. The profile of airfoil is
constructed by Bezier curves with fourteen control points and these
control points are adopted as the design variables. For multi-objective
optimization problems, the optimal solutions are not unique but a set
of non-dominated optima and they are called Pareto frontiers or Pareto
sets. As the results of optimization, forty numbers of non- dominated
Pareto optima can be obtained at thirty evolutions.
Abstract: The present work is concerned with the effect of turning process parameters (cutting speed, feed rate, and depth of cut) and distance from the center of work piece as input variables on the chip micro-hardness as response or output. Three experiments were conducted; they were used to investigate the chip micro-hardness behavior at diameter of work piece for 30[mm], 40[mm], and 50[mm]. Response surface methodology (R.S.M) is used to determine and present the cause and effect of the relationship between true mean response and input control variables influencing the response as a two or three dimensional hyper surface. R.S.M has been used for designing a three factor with five level central composite rotatable factors design in order to construct statistical models capable of accurate prediction of responses. The results obtained showed that the application of R.S.M can predict the effect of machining parameters on chip micro-hardness. The five level factorial designs can be employed easily for developing statistical models to predict chip micro-hardness by controllable machining parameters. Results obtained showed that the combined effect of cutting speed at it?s lower level, feed rate and depth of cut at their higher values, and larger work piece diameter can result increasing chi micro-hardness.
Abstract: In two studies we tested the hypothesis that the
appropriate linguistic formulation of a deontic rule – i.e. the
formulation which clarifies the monadic nature of deontic operators
- should produce more correct responses than the conditional
formulation in Wason selection task. We tested this assumption by
presenting a prescription rule and a prohibition rule in conditional
vs. proper deontic formulation. We contrasted this hypothesis with
two other hypotheses derived from social contract theory and
relevance theory. According to the first theory, a deontic rule
expressed in terms of cost-benefit should elicit a cheater detection
module, sensible to mental states attributions and thus able to
discriminate intentional rule violations from accidental rule
violations. We tested this prevision by distinguishing the two types
of violations. According to relevance theory, performance in
selection task should improve by increasing cognitive effect and
decreasing cognitive effort. We tested this prevision by focusing
experimental instructions on the rule vs. the action covered by the
rule. In study 1, in which 480 undergraduates participated, we
tested these predictions through a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (type of the rule x
rule formulation x type of violation x experimental instructions)
between-subjects design. In study 2 – carried out by means of a 2 x
2 (rule formulation x type of violation) between-subjects design -
we retested the hypothesis of rule formulation vs. the cheaterdetection
hypothesis through a new version of selection task in
which intentional vs. accidental rule violations were better
discriminated. 240 undergraduates participated in this study.
Results corroborate our hypothesis and challenge the contrasting
assumptions. However, they show that the conditional formulation
of deontic rules produces a lower performance than what is
reported in literature.
Abstract: Scatter behavior of fatigue life in die-cast AM60B
alloy was investigated. For comparison, those in rolled AM60B alloy
and die-cast A365-T5 aluminum alloy were also studied. Scatter
behavior of pore size was also investigated to discuss dominant
factors for fatigue life scatter in die-cast materials. Three-parameter
Weibull function was suitable to explain the scatter behavior of both
fatigue life and pore size. The scatter of fatigue life in die-cast
AM60B alloy was almost comparable to that in die-cast A365-T5
alloy, while it was significantly large compared to that in the rolled
AM60B alloy. Scatter behavior of pore size observed at fracture
nucleation site on the fracture surface was comparable to that
observed on the specimen cross-section and also to that of fatigue
life. Therefore, the dominant factor for large scatter of fatigue life in
die-cast alloys would be the large scatter of pore size. This
speculation was confirmed by the fracture mechanics fatigue life
prediction, where the pore observed at fatigue crack nucleation site
was assumed as the pre-existing crack.
Abstract: The neural network's performance can be measured by efficiency and accuracy. The major disadvantages of neural network approach are that the generalization capability of neural networks is often significantly low, and it may take a very long time to tune the weights in the net to generate an accurate model for a highly complex and nonlinear systems. This paper presents a novel Neuro-fuzzy architecture based on Extended Kalman filter. To test the performance and applicability of the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, simulation study of nonlinear complex dynamic system is carried out. The proposed method can be applied to an on-line incremental adaptive learning for the prediction of financial time series. A benchmark case studie is used to demonstrate that the proposed model is a superior neuro-fuzzy modeling technique.
Abstract: The paper presents a one-dimensional transient
mathematical model of thermal oil-water two-phase emulsion flows
in pipes. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation
equations for the continuous fluid and droplet phases are solved. Two
friction correlations for the continuous fluid phase to wall friction are
accounted for in the model and tested. The aerodynamic drag force
between the continuous fluid phase and droplets is modeled, too. The
density and viscosity of both phases are assumed to be constant due
to adiabatic experimental conditions. The proposed mathematical
model is validated on the experimental measurements of oil-water
emulsion flows in horizontal pipe [1,2]. Numerical analysis on
single- and two-phase oil-water flows in a pipe is presented in the
paper. The continuous oil flow having water droplets is simulated.
Predictions, which are performed by using the presented model, show
excellent agreement with the experimental data if the water fraction is
equal or less than 10%. Disagreement between simulations and
measurements is increased if the water fraction is larger than 10%.
Abstract: This paper study about using of nonparametric
models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart
transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called
smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare
the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression
models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded
that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of
the kernel regression.
Abstract: As the demand for higher capacity in a cellular environment increases, the cell size decreases. This fact makes the role of suitable handoff algorithms to reduce both number of handoffs and handoff delay more important. In this paper we show that applying the grey prediction technique for handoff leads to considerable decrease in handoff delay with using a small number of handoffs, compared with traditional hystersis based handoff algorithms.
Abstract: The peng-Robinson (PR), a cubic equation of state (EoS), is extended to polymers by using a single set of energy (A1, A2, A3) and co-volume (b) parameters per polymer fitted to experimental volume data. Excellent results for the volumetric behavior of the 11 polymer up to 2000 bar pressure are obtained. The EoS is applied to the correlation and prediction of Henry constants in polymer solutions comprising three polymer and many nonpolar and polar solvents, including supercritical gases. The correlation achieved with two adjustable parameter is satisfactory compared with the experimental data. As a result, the present work provides a simple and useful model for the prediction of Henry's constant for polymer containing systems including those containing polar, nonpolar and supercritical fluids.
Abstract: Fuzzy logic system (FLS) is used in this study to
predict the tractive performance in terms of traction force, and
motion resistance for an intelligent air cushion track vehicle while it
operates in the swamp peat. The system is effective to control the
intelligent air –cushion system with measuring the vehicle traction
force (TF), motion resistance (MR), cushion clearance height (CH)
and cushion pressure (CP). Ultrasonic displacement sensor, pull-in
solenoid electromagnetic switch, pressure control sensor, micro
controller, and battery pH sensor are incorporated with the Fuzzy
logic system to investigate experimentally the TF, MR, CH, and CP.
In this study, a comparison for tractive performance of an intelligent
air cushion track vehicle has been performed with the results obtained
from the predicted values of FLS and experimental actual values. The
mean relative error of actual and predicted values from the FLS
model on traction force, and total motion resistance are found as 5.58
%, and 6.78 % respectively. For all parameters, the relative error of
predicted values are found to be less than the acceptable limits. The
goodness of fit of the prediction values from the FLS model on TF,
and MR are found as 0.90, and 0.98 respectively.