Abstract: This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three
statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural
equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical
modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the
strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study
explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and
suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the
causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of
depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research
modeling were discussed.
Abstract: This study investigates the use of a time-series of
MODIS NDVI data to identify agricultural land cover change on an
annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend. Following
an ISODATA classification of the MODIS imagery to selectively
mask areas not agriculture or semi-natural, NDVI signatures were
created to identify areas cereals and vineyards with the aid of
ancillary, pictometry and field sample data for 2010. The NDVI
signature curve and training samples were used to create a decision
tree model in WEKA 3.6.9 using decision tree classifier (J48)
algorithm; Model 1 including ISODATA classification and Model 2
not. These two models were then used to classify all data for the
study area for 2010, producing land cover maps with classification
accuracies of 77% and 80% for Model 1 and 2 respectively. Model 2
was subsequently used to create land cover classification and change
detection maps for all other years. Subtle changes and areas of
consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes
and crop practices. Over the years as predicted by the land cover
classification. Forty one percent of the catchment comprised of
cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system.
Vineyards largely remained constant with only one percent
conversion to vineyard from other land cover classes.
Abstract: Cloud computing is the innovative and leading
information technology model for enabling convenient, on-demand
network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources
that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal
management effort. In this paper, we aim at the development of
workflow management system for cloud computing platforms based
on our previous research on the dynamic allocation of the cloud
computing resources and its workflow process. We took advantage of
the HTML5 technology and developed web-based workflow interface.
In order to enable the combination of many tasks running on the cloud
platform in sequence, we designed a mechanism and developed an
execution engine for workflow management on clouds. We also
established a prediction model which was integrated with job queuing
system to estimate the waiting time and cost of the individual tasks on
different computing nodes, therefore helping users achieve maximum
performance at lowest payment. This proposed effort has the potential
to positively provide an efficient, resilience and elastic environment
for cloud computing platform. This development also helps boost user
productivity by promoting a flexible workflow interface that lets users
design and control their tasks' flow from anywhere.
Abstract: Latin hypercube designs (LHDs) have been applied in
many computer experiments among the space-filling designs found in
the literature. A LHD can be randomly generated but a randomly
chosen LHD may have bad properties and thus act poorly in
estimation and prediction. There is a connection between Latin
squares and orthogonal arrays (OAs). A Latin square of order s
involves an arrangement of s symbols in s rows and s columns, such
that every symbol occurs once in each row and once in each column
and this exists for every non-negative integer s. In this paper, a
computer program was written to construct orthogonal array-based
Latin hypercube designs (OA-LHDs). Orthogonal arrays (OAs) were
constructed from Latin square of order s and the OAs constructed
were afterward used to construct the desired Latin hypercube designs
for three input variables for use in computer experiments. The LHDs
constructed have better space-filling properties and they can be used
in computer experiments that involve only three input factors.
MATLAB 2012a computer package (www.mathworks.com/) was
used for the development of the program that constructs the designs.
Abstract: Behavioral aspects of experience such as will power
are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous
complexities involved. Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled
humanity for a long time. It is a belief that will power of an individual
affects the success achieved by them in life. It is also thought that a
person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most
crippling setbacks in life while a person with a weak will cannot make
the most of life even the greatest assets. This study is an attempt
to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural
network through a computational model. The claim being tested is
that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved
in life. It is proposed that data pertaining to success of individuals
be obtained from an experiment and the phenomenon of will be
incorporated into the model, through data generated recursively using
a relation between will and success characteristic to the model.
An artificial neural network trained using part of the data, could
subsequently be used to make predictions regarding data points in
the rest of the model. The procedure would be tried for different
models and the model where the networks predictions are found to
be in greatest agreement with the data would be selected; and used
for studying the relation between success and will.
Abstract: The research of juice flavor forecasting has become
more important in China. Due to the fast economic growth in China,
many different kinds of juices have been introduced to the market. If a
beverage company can understand their customers’ preference well,
the juice can be served more attractive. Thus, this study intends to
introducing the basic theory and computing process of grapes juice
flavor forecasting based on support vector regression (SVR). Applying
SVR, BPN, and LR to forecast the flavor of grapes juice in real data
shows that SVR is more suitable and effective at predicting
performance.
Abstract: This paper is part of a study to develop robots for
farming. As such power requirement to operate equipment attach to
such robots become an important factor. Soil-tool interaction plays
major role in power consumption, thus predicting accurately the
forces which act on the blade during the farming is very important for
optimal designing of farm equipment. In this paper, a finite element
investigation for tillage tools and soil interaction is described by
using an inelastic constitutive material law for agriculture
application. A 3-dimensional (3D) nonlinear finite element analysis
(FEA) is developed to examine behavior of a blade with different
rake angles moving in a block of soil, and to estimate the blade force.
The soil model considered is an elastic-plastic with non-associated
Drucker-Prager material model. Special use of contact elements are
employed to consider connection between soil-blade and soil-soil
surfaces. The FEA results are compared with experimental ones,
which show good agreement in accurately predicting draft forces
developed on the blade when it moves through the soil. Also a very
good correlation was obtained between FEA results and analytical
results from classical soil mechanics theories for straight blades.
These comparisons verified the FEA model developed. For analyzing
complicated soil-tool interactions and for optimum design of blades,
this method will be useful.
Abstract: One of the crucial parameters of digital cryptographic
systems is the selection of the keys used and their distribution. The
randomness of the keys has a strong impact on the system’s security
strength being difficult to be predicted, guessed, reproduced, or
discovered by a cryptanalyst. Therefore, adequate key randomness
generation is still sought for the benefit of stronger cryptosystems.
This paper suggests an algorithm designed to generate and test
pseudo random number sequences intended for cryptographic
applications. This algorithm is based on mathematically manipulating
a publically agreed upon information between sender and receiver
over a public channel. This information is used as a seed for
performing some mathematical functions in order to generate a
sequence of pseudorandom numbers that will be used for
encryption/decryption purposes. This manipulation involves
permutations and substitutions that fulfill Shannon’s principle of
“confusion and diffusion”. ASCII code characters were utilized in the
generation process instead of using bit strings initially, which adds
more flexibility in testing different seed values. Finally, the obtained
results would indicate sound difficulty of guessing keys by attackers.
Abstract: Rainfall runoff models play important role in
hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the
process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to
show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 –
May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model
HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system.
The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic
prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and
Věřňovice.
Abstract: We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model
(HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter
(allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine
function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz
growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained
deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used
in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its
ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz
growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of
height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides
a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit
tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and
Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error
term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error
term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top
height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted
closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic
gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical
gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and
AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz
growth models over its source model.
Abstract: Availability of different genetic tests after completion
of Human Genome Project increases the physicians’ responsibility to
keep themselves update on the potential implementation of these
genetic tests in their daily practice. However, due to numbers of
barriers, still many of physicians are not either aware of these tests or
are not willing to offer or refer their patients for genetic tests. This
study was conducted an anonymous, cross-sectional, mailed-based
survey to develop a primary data of Malaysian physicians’ level of
knowledge and perception of gene profiling. Questionnaire had 29
questions. Total scores on selected questions were used to assess the
level of knowledge. The highest possible score was 11. Descriptive
statistics, one way ANOVA and chi-squared test was used for
statistical analysis. Sixty three completed questionnaires were
returned by 27 general practitioners (GPs) and 36 medical specialists.
Responders’ age ranges from 24 to 55 years old (mean 30.2 ± 6.4).
About 40% of the participants rated themselves as having poor level
of knowledge in genetics in general whilst 60% believed that they
have fair level of knowledge; however, almost half (46%) of the
respondents felt that they were not knowledgeable about available
genetic tests. A majority (94%) of the responders were not aware of
any lab or company which is offering gene profiling services in
Malaysia. Only 4% of participants were aware of using gene profiling
for detection of dosage of some drugs. Respondents perceived greater
utility of gene profiling for breast cancer (38%) compared to the
colorectal familial cancer (3%). The score of knowledge ranged from
2 to 8 (mean 4.38 ± 1.67). Non- significant differences between score
of knowledge of GPs and specialists were observed, with score of
4.19 and 4.58 respectively. There was no significant association
between any demographic factors and level of knowledge. However,
those who graduated between years 2001 to 2005 had higher level of
knowledge. Overall, 83% of participants showed relatively high level
of perception on value of gene profiling to detect patient’s risk of
disease. However, low perception was observed for both statements
of using gene profiling for general population in order to alter their
lifestyle (25%) as well as having the full sequence of a patient
genome for the purpose of determining a patient’s best match for
treatment (18%). The lack of clinical guidelines, limited provider
knowledge and awareness, lack of time and resources to educate
patients, lack of evidence-based clinical information and cost of tests
were the most barriers of ordering gene profiling mentioned by
physicians. In conclusion Malaysian physicians who participate in
this study had mediocre level of knowledge and awareness in gene
profiling. The low exposure to the genetic questions and problems
might be a key predictor of lack of awareness and knowledge on
available genetic tests. Educational and training workshop might be useful in helping Malaysian physicians incorporate genetic profiling
into practice for eligible patients.
Abstract: Coal fly ash is formed as a solid waste product from
the combustion of coal in coal fired power stations. Huge amounts of
fly ash are produced globally every year and are predicted to
increase. Nowadays, less than half of the fly ash is used as a raw
material for cement manufacturing, construction and the rest of it is
disposed as a waste causing yet another environmental concern. For
this reason, the recycling of this kind of slurries into useful materials
is quite important in terms of economical and environmental aspects.
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Orhaneli and
Tuncbilek coal fly ashes for utilization in some industrial
applications. Therefore the mineralogical and chemical compositions
of these fly ashes were analyzed by X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy,
ourier-transform infrared spectrometer, and X-ray diffraction. The
silicon (Si) and aluminum (Al) in the fly ashes were activated by
alkali fusion technique with sodium hydroxide. The obtained extracts
were analyzed for Si and Al content by inductively coupled plasma
optical emission spectrometry.
Abstract: This paper presents effects of the mean operating
pressure on the optimal operating frequency based on temperature
differences across stack ends in a thermoacoustic refrigerator. In
addition to the length of the resonance tube, components of the
thermoacoustic refrigerator have an influence on the operating
frequency due to their acoustic properties, i.e., absorptivity,
reflectivity and transmissivity. The interference of waves incurs and
distorts the original frequency generated by the driver so that the
optimal operating frequency differs from the designs. These acoustic
properties are not parameters in the designs and be very complicated
to infer their responses. A prototype thermoacoustic refrigerator is
constructed and used to investigate its optimal operating frequency
compared to the design at various operating pressures. Helium and air
are used as working fluids during the experiments. The results
indicate that the optimal operating frequency of the prototype
thermoacoustic refrigerator using helium is at 6 bar and 490Hz or
approximately 20% away from the design frequency. The optimal
operating frequency at other mean pressures differs from the design
in an unpredictable manner, however, the optimal operating
frequency and pressure can be identified by testing.
Abstract: A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is
formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear
system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The
quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of
mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise are
analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and
bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in
predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is
supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis
without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly
derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical
solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean
and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal
signal and white noise excitation.
Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to provide a new
methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the
development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique
with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop
these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized
T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit
measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed
models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based
models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full
models containing both exposure functions and other significant
geometry and traffic variables.
The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much
better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables
were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed,
major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn
curb radius.
The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or
upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections.
Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection
conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in
several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.
Abstract: Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B
virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the
general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3
million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January
2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis
who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a
well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical
resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal
component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of
dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural
network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total
of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in
this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that
the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other
compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and
echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for
patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.
Abstract: Predicting the collapse potential of a structure during
earthquakes is an important issue in earthquake engineering. Many
researchers proposed different methods to assess the collapse
potential of structures under the effect of strong ground motions.
However most of them did not consider degradation and softening
effect in hysteretic behavior. In this study, collapse potential of
SDOF systems caused by dynamic instability with stiffness and
strength degradation has been investigated. An equation was
proposed for the estimation of collapse period of SDOF system which
is a limit value of period for dynamic instability. If period of the
considered SDOF system is shorter than the collapse period then the
relevant system exhibits dynamic instability and collapse occurs.
Abstract: In general, codes and regulations consider seismic
loads only for completed structures of the bridges while, evaluation
of incomplete structure of bridges, especially those constructed by
free cantilever method, under these loads is also of great importance.
Hence, this research tried to study the behavior of incomplete
structure of common bridge type (box girder bridge), in construction
phase under vertical seismic loads. Subsequently, the paper provided
suitable guidelines and solutions to resist this destructive
phenomenon. Research results proved that use of preventive methods
can significantly reduce the stresses resulted from vertical seismic
loads in box cross sections to an acceptable range recommended by
design codes.
Abstract: The paper deals with possibilities of interpretation of
iron ore reducibility tests. It presents a mathematical model
developed at Centre ENET, VŠB – Technical University of Ostrava,
Czech Republic for an evaluation of metallurgical material of blast
furnace feedstock such as iron ore, sinter or pellets. According to the
data from the test, the model predicts its usage in blast furnace
technology and its effects on production parameters of shaft
aggregate. At the beginning, the paper sums up the general concept
and experience in mathematical modelling of iron ore reduction. It
presents basic equation for the calculation and the main parts of the
developed model. In the experimental part, there is an example of
usage of the mathematical model. The paper describes the usage of
data for some predictive calculation. There are presented material,
method of carried test of iron ore reducibility. Then there are
graphically interpreted effects of used material on carbon
consumption, rate of direct reduction and the whole reduction
process.
Abstract: A model was constructed to predict the amount of
solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in
a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported
by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during
a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce
energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal
function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to
estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized
measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia
weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and
training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with
a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation
algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In
addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent
weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later
trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete
wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the
measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar
radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts
are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.