Forecast Based on an Empirical Probability Function with an Adjusted Error Using Propagation of Error

This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Numerical Simulation of Free Surface Water Wave for the Flow around NACA 0012 Hydrofoil and Wigley Hull Using VOF Method

Steady three-dimensional and two free surface waves generated by moving bodies are presented, the flow problem to be simulated is rich in complexity and poses many modeling challenges because of the existence of breaking waves around the ship hull, and because of the interaction of the two-phase flow with the turbulent boundary layer. The results of several simulations are reported. The first study was performed for NACA0012 of hydrofoil with different meshes, this section is analyzed at h/c= 1, 0345 for 2D. In the second simulation a mathematically defined Wigley hull form is used to investigate the application of a commercial CFD code in prediction of the total resistance and its components from tangential and normal forces on the hull wetted surface. The computed resistance and wave profiles are used to estimate the coefficient of the total resistance for Wigley hull advancing in calm water under steady conditions. The commercial CFD software FLUENT version 12 is used for the computations in the present study. The calculated grid is established using the code computer GAMBIT 2.3.26. The shear stress k-ωSST model is used for turbulence modeling and the volume of fluid technique is employed to simulate the free-surface motion. The second order upwind scheme is used for discretizing the convection terms in the momentum transport equations, the Modified HRIC scheme for VOF discretization. The results obtained compare well with the experimental data.

Experimental Implementation of Model Predictive Control for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor

Fast speed drives for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM) is a crucial performance for the electric traction systems. In this paper, PMSM is derived with a Model-based Predictive Control (MPC) technique. Fast speed tracking is achieved through optimization of the DC source utilization using MPC. The technique is based on predicting the optimum voltage vector applied to the driver. Control technique is investigated by comparing to the cascaded PI control based on Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM). MPC and SVPWM-based FOC are implemented with the TMS320F2812 DSP and its power driver circuits. The designed MPC for a PMSM drive is experimentally validated on a laboratory test bench. The performances are compared with those obtained by a conventional PI-based system in order to highlight the improvements, especially regarding speed tracking response.

Performance Evaluation of an Inventive CO2 Gas Separation Inorganic Ceramic Membrane

Atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions are considered as the greatest environmental challenge the world is facing today. The tasks to control the emissions include the recovery of CO2 from flue gas. This concern has been improved due to recent advances in materials process engineering resulting in the development of inorganic gas separation membranes with excellent thermal and mechanical stability required for most gas separations. This paper, therefore, evaluates the performance of a highly selective inorganic membrane for CO2 recovery applications. Analysis of results obtained is in agreement with experimental literature data. Further results show the prediction performance of the membranes for gas separation and the future direction of research. The materials selection and the membrane preparation techniques are discussed. Method of improving the interface defects in the membrane and its effect on the separation performance has also been reviewed and in addition advances to totally exploit the potential usage of this innovative membrane.

Characterization and Predictors of Community Integration of People with Psychiatric Problems: Comparisons with the General Population

Community integration is a construct that an increasing body of research has shown to have a significant impact on the wellbeing and recovery of people with psychiatric problems. However, there are few studies that explore which factors can be associated and predict community integration. Moreover, community integration has been mostly studied in minority groups, and current literature on the definition and manifestation of community integration in the general population is scarcer. Thus, the current study aims to characterize community integration and explore possible predictor variables in a sample of participants with psychiatric problems (PP, N=183) and a sample of participants from the general population (GP, N=211). Results show that people with psychiatric problems present above average values of community integration, but are significantly lower than their healthy counterparts. It was also possible to observe that community integration does not vary in terms of the sociodemographic characteristics of both groups in this study. Correlation and multiple regression showed that, among several variables that literature present as relevant in the community integration process, only three variables emerged as having the most explanatory value in community integration of both groups: sense of community, basic needs satisfaction and submission. These results also shown that those variables have increased explanatory power in the PP sample, which leads us to emphasize the need to address this issue in future studies and increase the understanding of the factors that can be involved in the promotion of community integration, in order to devise more effective interventions in this field.

Characterization and Predictors of Paranoid Ideation in Youths

Paranoid ideation is a common thought process that constitutes a defense against perceived social threats. The current study aimed at the characterization of paranoid ideation in youths and to explore the possible predictors involved in the development of paranoid ideations. Paranoid ideation, shame, submission, early childhood memories and current depressive, anxious and stress symptomatology were assessed in a sample of 1516 Portuguese youths. Higher frequencies of paranoid ideation were observed, particularly in females and youths from lower socioeconomic status. The main predictors identified relates to submissive behaviors and adverse childhood experiences, and especially to shame feelings. The current study emphasizes that the these predictors are similar to findings in adults and clinical populations, and future implications to research and clinical practice aiming at paranoid ideations are discussed, as well as the pertinence of the study of mediating factors that allow a wider understanding of this thought process in younger populations and the prevention of psychopathology in adulthood.

Prediction of Oxygen Transfer and Gas Hold-Up in Pneumatic Bioreactors Containing Viscous Newtonian Fluids

Pneumatic reactors have been widely employed in various sectors of the chemical industry, especially where are required high heat and mass transfer rates. This study aimed to obtain correlations that allow the prediction of gas hold-up (Ԑ) and volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (kLa), and compare these values, for three models of pneumatic reactors on two scales utilizing Newtonian fluids. Values of kLa ​​were obtained using the dynamic pressure-step method, while e was used for a new proposed measure. Comparing the three models of reactors studied, it was observed that the mass transfer was superior to draft-tube airlift, reaching e of 0.173 and kLa of 0.00904s-1. All correlations showed good fit to the experimental data (R2≥94%), and comparisons with correlations from the literature demonstrate the need for further similar studies due to shortage of data available, mainly for airlift reactors and high viscosity fluids.

Aggregate Angularity on the Permanent Deformation Zones of Hot Mix Asphalt

This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Characterization of the Dispersion Phenomenon in an Optical Biosensor

Optical biosensors have become a powerful detection and analysis tool for wide-ranging applications in biomedical research, pharmaceuticals and environmental monitoring. This study carried out the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based simulations to explore the dispersion phenomenon in the micro channel of an optical biosensor. The predicted time sequences of concentration contours were utilized to better understand the dispersion development occurred in different geometric shapes of micro channels. The simulation results showed the surface concentrations at the sensing probe (with the best performance of a grating coupler) in respect of time to appraise the dispersion effect and therefore identify the design configurations resulting in minimum dispersion.

Degree of Bending in Axially Loaded Tubular KT-Joints of Offshore Structures: Parametric Study and Formulation

The fatigue life of tubular joints commonly found in offshore industry is not only dependent on the value of hot-spot stress (HSS), but is also significantly influenced by the through-thethickness stress distribution characterized by the degree of bending (DoB). The determination of DoB values in a tubular joint is essential for improving the accuracy of fatigue life estimation using the stresslife (S–N) method and particularly for predicting the fatigue crack growth based on the fracture mechanics (FM) approach. In the present paper, data extracted from finite element (FE) analyses of tubular KT-joints, verified against experimental data and parametric equations, was used to investigate the effects of geometrical parameters on DoB values at the crown 0°, saddle, and crown 180° positions along the weld toe of central brace in tubular KT-joints subjected to axial loading. Parametric study was followed by a set of nonlinear regression analyses to derive DoB parametric formulas for the fatigue analysis of KT-joints under axial loads. The tubular KTjoint is a quite common joint type found in steel offshore structures. However, despite the crucial role of the DoB in evaluating the fatigue performance of tubular joints, this paper is the first attempt to study and formulate the DoB values in KT-joints.

Hallucinatory Activity in Schizophrenia: The Relationship with Childhood Memories, Submissive Behavior, Social Comparison, and Depression

Auditory hallucinations among the most invalidating and distressing experiences reported by patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, leading to feelings of powerlessness and helplessness towards their illness. In more severe cases, these auditory hallucinations can take the form of commanding voices, which are often related to high suicidality rates in these patients. Several authors propose that the meanings attributed to the hallucinatory experience, rather than characteristics like form and content, can be determinant in patients’ reactions to hallucinatory activity, particularly in the case of voice-hearing experiences. In this study, 48 patients diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia presenting auditory hallucinations were studied. Multiple regression analyses were computed to study the influence of several developmental aspects, such as family and social dynamics, bullying, depression, and sociocognitive variables on the auditory hallucinations, on patients’ attributions and relationships with their voices, and on the resulting invalidation of hallucinatory experience. Overall, results showed how relationships with voices can mirror several aspects of interpersonal relationship with others, and how self-schemas, depression and actual social relationships help shaping the voice-hearing experience. Early experiences of victimization and submission help predict the attributions of omnipotence of the voices, and increased hostility from parents seems to increase the malevolence of the voices, suggesting that socio-cognitive factors can significantly contribute to the etiology and maintenance of auditory hallucinations. The understanding of the characteristics of auditory hallucinations and the relationships patients established with their voices can allow the development of more promising therapeutic interventions that can be more effective in decreasing invalidation caused by this devastating mental illness.

Cross Project Software Fault Prediction at Design Phase

Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. Earlier we predicted the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven datasets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Prediction of Unsteady Forced Convection over Square Cylinder in the Presence of Nanofluid by Using ANN

Heat transfer due to forced convection of copper water based nanofluid has been predicted by Artificial Neural network (ANN). The present nanofluid is formed by mixing copper nanoparticles in water and the volume fractions are considered here are 0% to 15% and the Reynolds number are kept constant at 100. The back propagation algorithm is used to train the network. The present ANN is trained by the input and output data which has been obtained from the numerical simulation, performed in finite volume based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) commercial software Ansys Fluent. The numerical simulation based results are compared with the back propagation based ANN results. It is found that the forced convection heat transfer of water based nanofluid can be predicted correctly by ANN. It is also observed that the back propagation ANN can predict the heat transfer characteristics of nanofluid very quickly compared to standard CFD method.

Conformation Prediction of Human Plasmin and Docking on Gold Nanoparticle

Plasmin plays an important role in the human circulatory system owing to its catalytic ability of fibrinolysis. The immediate injection of plasmin in patients of strokes has intrigued many scientists to design vectors that can transport plasmin to the desired location in human body. Here we predict the structure of human plasmin and investigate the interaction of plasmin with the gold-nanoparticle. Because the crystal structure of plasminogen has been solved, we deleted N-terminal domain (Pan-apple domain) of plasminogen and generate a mimic of the active form of this enzyme (plasmin). We conducted a simulated annealing process on plasmin and discovered a very large conformation occurs. Kringle domains 1, 4 and 5 had been observed to leave its original location relative to the main body of the enzyme and the original doughnut shape of this enzyme has been transformed to a V-shaped by opening its two arms. This observation of conformational change is consistent with the experimental results of neutron scattering and centrifugation. We subsequently docked the plasmin on the simulated gold surface to predict their interaction. The V-shaped plasmin could utilize its Kringle domain and catalytic domain to contact the gold surface. Our findings not only reveal the flexibility of plasmin structure but also provide a guide for the design of a plasmin-gold nanoparticle.

Highly Optimized Novel High Speed Low Power Barrel Shifter at 22nm Hi K Metal Gate Strained Si Technology Node

This research paper presents highly optimized barrel shifter at 22nm Hi K metal gate strained Si technology node. This barrel shifter is having a unique combination of static and dynamic body bias which gives lowest power delay product. This power delay product is compared with the same circuit at same technology node with static forward biasing at ‘supply/2’ and also with normal reverse substrate biasing and still found to be the lowest. The power delay product of this barrel sifter is .39362X10-17J and is lowered by approximately 78% to reference proposed barrel shifter at 32nm bulk CMOS technology. Power delay product of barrel shifter at 22nm Hi K Metal gate technology with normal reverse substrate bias is 2.97186933X10-17J and can be compared with this design’s PDP of .39362X10-17J. This design uses both static and dynamic substrate biasing and also has approximately 96% lower power delay product compared to only forward body biased at half of supply voltage. The NMOS model used are predictive technology models of Arizona state university and the simulations to be carried out using HSPICE simulator.

Performance and Emission Prediction in a Biodiesel Engine Fuelled with Honge Methyl Ester Using RBF Neural Networks

In the present study, RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tex and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Material Flow Modeling in Friction Stir Welding of AA6061-T6 Alloy and Study of the Effect of Process Parameters

To understand the friction stir welding process, it is very important to know the nature of the material flow in and around the tool. The process is a combination of both thermal as well as mechanical work i.e. it is a coupled thermo-mechanical process. Numerical simulations are very much essential in order to obtain a complete knowledge of the process as well as the physics underlying it. In the present work a model based approach is adopted in order to study material flow. A thermo-mechanical based CFD model is developed using a Finite Element package, Comsol Multiphysics. The fluid flow analysis is done. The model simultaneously predicts shear strain fields, shear strain rates and shear stress over the entire workpiece for the given conditions. The flow fields generated by the streamline plot give an idea of the material flow. The variation of dynamic viscosity, velocity field and shear strain fields with various welding parameters is studied. Finally the result obtained from the above mentioned conditions is discussed elaborately and concluded.

Time/Temperature-Dependent Finite Element Model of Laminated Glass Beams

The polymer foil used for manufacturing of laminated glass members behaves in a viscoelastic manner with temperature dependance. This contribution aims at incorporating the time/temperature-dependent behavior of interlayer to our earlier elastic finite element model for laminated glass beams. The model is based on a refined beam theory: each layer behaves according to the finite-strain shear deformable formulation by Reissner and the adjacent layers are connected via the Lagrange multipliers ensuring the inter-layer compatibility of a laminated unit. The time/temperature-dependent behavior of the interlayer is accounted for by the generalized Maxwell model and by the time-temperature superposition principle due to the Williams, Landel, and Ferry. The resulting system is solved by the Newton method with consistent linearization and the viscoelastic response is determined incrementally by the exponential algorithm. By comparing the model predictions against available experimental data, we demonstrate that the proposed formulation is reliable and accurately reproduces the behavior of the laminated glass units.

Parental and Related Factors Affecting Students’ Academic Achievement in Oyo State, Nigeria

Many factors influence the educational outcome of students. Some of these have been studied by researchers with many emphasizing the role of students, schools, governments, peer groups and so on. More often than not, some of these factors influencing the academic achievement of the students have been traced back to parents and family; being the primary platform on which learning not only begins but is nurtured, encouraged and developed which later transforms to the performance of the students. This study not only explores parental and related factors that predict academic achievement through the review of relevant literatures but also, investigates the influence of parental background on the academic achievement of senior secondary school students in Ibadan North Local Government Area of Oyo State, Nigeria. As one of the criteria of the quality of education, students’ academic achievement was investigated because it is most often cited as an indicator of school effectiveness by school authorities and educationists. The data collection was done through interviews and use of well-structured questionnaires administered to one hundred students (100) within the target local government. This was statistically analysed and the result showed that parents’ attitudes towards their children’s education had significant effect(s) on students’ self-reporting of academic achievement. However, such factors as parental education and socioeconomic background had no significant relationship with the students’ self-reporting of academic achievement.

The Role of Brand Loyalty in Generating Positive Word of Mouth among Malaysian Hypermarket Customers

Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to test a hypothesized model explaining Malaysian hypermarket customers’ perceptions of brand trust (BT), customer perceived value (CPV) and perceived service quality (PSQ) on building their brand loyalty (CBL) and generating positive word-of-mouth communication (WOM). Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data from 374 Malaysian hypermarket customers from Mydin, Tesco, Aeon Big and Giant in Kuala Lumpur, a metropolitan city of Malaysia. The data strongly supported the model exhibiting that BT, CPV and PSQ are prerequisite factors in building customer brand loyalty, while PSQ has the strongest effect on prediction of customer brand loyalty compared to other factors. Besides, the present study suggests the effect of the aforementioned factors via customer brand loyalty strongly contributes to generate positive word of mouth communication.