Abstract: Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments
(SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra
(ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components.
ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building
subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground
motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any
horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components
along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different
locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions.
The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the
ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are
rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and
Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the
understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA
purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the
estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the
direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear
structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along
different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central
measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically
independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal
Cartesian axes.
Abstract: To evaluate the factors which predetermine the
coronary artery disease in patients having positive Exercise Tolerance
Test (ETT) that is treadmill results and coronary artery findings. This
descriptive study was conducted at Department of Cardiology,
Ibrahim Cardiac Hospital & Research Institute, Dhaka, Bangladesh
from 1st January, 2014 to 31st August, 2014. All patients who had
done ETT (treadmill) for chest pain diagnosis were studied. One
hundred and four patients underwent coronary angiogram after
positive treadmill result. Patients were divided into two groups
depending upon the angiographic findings, i.e. true positive and false
positive. Positive treadmill test patients who have coronary artery
involvement these are called true positive and who have no
involvement they are called false positive group. Both groups were
compared with each other. Out of 104 patients, 81 (77.9%) patients
had true positive ETT and 23 (22.1%) patients had false positive
ETT. The mean age of patients in positive ETT was 53.46± 8.06
years and male mean age was 53.63±8.36 years and female was
52.87±7.0 years. Sixty nine (85.19%) male patients and twelve
(14.81%) female patients had true positive ETT, whereas 15
(65.21%) males and 8 (34.79%) females had false positive ETT, this
was statistically significant (p
Abstract: Maturity models, used descriptively to explain
changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make
interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are
based on the principles of statistical quality control and PDCA
continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act). Some frameworks
developed over the concept of maturity models include COBIT,
CMM, and ITIL.
This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity
models, most of them related to the mechanistic and reductionist
principles over which those models are built. As systems theory helps
the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and
organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model
can help to overcome some of those limitations.
This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a
systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of
the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their
behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory
perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the
organization, which arises as a result of the degree of alignment and
integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through
a systemic function that measures the maturity of organizations, and
finally validated by the measuring of maturity in some organizations.
For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to
measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and
Compliance (GRC) processes.
Abstract: The exposure to outdoor air pollution causes lung
cancer and increases the risk of bladder cancer. Because air pollution
in urban areas is mainly caused by transportation, it is necessary to
evaluate pollutant exhaust emissions from vehicles during their realworld
use. Nevertheless their evaluation and reduction is a key
problem, especially in the cities, that account for more than 50% of
world population.
A particular attention was given to the slope variability along the
streets during each journey performed by the instrumented vehicle.
In this paper we dealt with the problem of describing a
quantitatively approach for the reconstruction of GPS coordinates and
altitude, in the context of correlation study between driving cycles /
emission / geographical location, during an experimental campaign
realized with some instrumented cars.
Finally the slope analysis can be correlated to the emission and
consumption values in a specific road position, and it could be
evaluated its influence on their behaviour.
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to investigate
perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forestbased
communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation
strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation.
Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire.
Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of
issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point likert scales, and
the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and
other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed
using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to
evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also
all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25.
Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk
to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived
as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The
most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to
forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in
Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was
reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was
perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation.
However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies
showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and
social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to
any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since
such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions
on these aspects are taken into account.
Abstract: Background: Bleeding during first half of pregnancy
mostly originates from placenta, some abort, others are at risk of
complications. Objective: Study was done to know perinatal outcome
with bleeding up to 20 weeks in singleton pregnancy. Material
Methods: Subjects were 1020, equal controls managed over 2 years,
435 had viable pregnancy at admission, 135 excluded, 300 followed
for perinatal outcome, 99 (19.52% up to 10 weeks), 201 (39.18% of
11-20 weeks). Results: Hypertensive disorders occurred in 24% cases
of bleeding within 10 weeks, 22% 11-20 weeks 14.79% controls,
placenta previa 4% in 10 weeks, 0.9% 11-20 weeks, 0.97% controls,
prelabor rupture of membranes in 16%, 7.45% controls. 20% up to 10
weeks, 35% 11-20 weeks, 18% controls had fetal growth restriction,
34.34% up to 10 weeks 30.35% of 11-20 weeks 17.17% controls had
preterm births, perinatal mortality rate in study was 118.62, in
controls 68.16 (Uneventful pregnancy in 13.52% study, 46.11%
controls). Conclusion: Once bleeding occurs, one third continue
pregnancy, maternal neonatal outcome gets affected with variations
in cases of bleeding within first 10 weeks & 11-20 weeks.
Abstract: South Africa has some regions which are susceptible
to moderate seismic activity. A peak ground acceleration of between
0.1g and 0.15g can be expected in the southern parts of the Western
Cape. Unreinforced Masonry (URM) is commonly used as a
construction material for 2 to 5 storey buildings in underprivileged
areas in and around Cape Town. URM is typically regarded as the
material most vulnerable to damage when subjected to earthquake
excitation. In this study, a three-storey URM building was analysed
by applying seven earthquake time-histories, which can be expected
to occur in South Africa using a finite element approach.
Experimental data was used to calibrate the in- and out-of-plane
stiffness of the URM. The results indicated that tensile cracking of
the in-plane piers was the dominant failure mode. It is concluded that
URM buildings of this type are at risk of failure especially if
sufficient ductility is not provided. The results also showed that
connection failure must be investigated further.
Abstract: One of the most important tasks in the risk
management is the correct determination of probability of default
(PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of
determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring
models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts.
The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different
models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression
and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US
commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and
verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one.
The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen
model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their
present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able
to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the
second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of
the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly
the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution,
while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the
multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model
and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the
obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is
still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms
of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles
in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the
applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is
limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.
Abstract: Most quality models have defined usability as a
significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability,
increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also
financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that
balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product,
which is an important aspect in defining quality during software
development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could
impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to
negative user experiences and causing a possible software product
failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in
the software development process itself. By managing possible
usability risks in software development process, failure of software
product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi
method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability
risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the
field of risk management and software development.
Abstract: This study discovers a novel framework of individual
level technology adoption known as I-P (Individual- Privacy) towards
health information application in Smart National Identity Card. Many
countries introduced smart national identity card (SNIC) with various
applications such as health information application embedded inside
it. However, the degree to which citizens accept and use some of the
embedded applications in smart national identity remains unknown to
many governments and application providers as well. Moreover, the
factors of trust, perceived risk, Privacy concern and perceived
credibility need to be incorporated into more comprehensive models
such as extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of
Technology known as UTAUT2. UTAUT2 is a mainly widespread
and leading theory up to now. This research identifies factors
affecting the citizens’ behavioural intention to use health information
application embedded in SNIC and extends better understanding on
the relevant factors that the government and the application providers
would need to consider in predicting citizens’ new technology
acceptance in the future. We propose a conceptual framework by
combining the UTAUT2 and Privacy Calculus Model constructs and
also adding perceived credibility as a new variable. The proposed
framework may provide assistance to any government planning,
decision, and policy makers involving e-government projects.
Empirical study may be conducted in the future to provide proof and
empirically validate this I-P framework.
Abstract: reliability-based methodology for the assessment
and evaluation of reinforced concrete (R/C) structural elements of
concrete structures is presented herein. The results of the reliability
analysis and assessment for R/C structural elements were verified by
the results obtained through deterministic methods. The outcomes of
the reliability-based analysis were compared against currently
adopted safety limits that are incorporated in the reliability indices
β’s, according to international standards and codes. The methodology
is based on probabilistic analysis using reliability concepts and
statistics of the main random variables that are relevant to the subject
matter, and for which they are to be used in the performance-function
equation(s) associated with the structural elements under study.
These methodology techniques can result in reliability index β, which
is commonly known as the reliability index or reliability measure
value that can be utilized to assess and evaluate the safety, human
risk, and functionality of the structural component. Also, these
methods can result in revised partial safety factor values for certain
target reliability indices that can be used for the purpose of
redesigning the R/C elements of the building and in which they could
assist in considering some other remedial actions to improve the
safety and functionality of the member.
Abstract: Innovations not only contribute to competitiveness of
the company but have also positive effects on revenues. On average,
product innovations account to 14 percent of companies’ sales.
Innovation management has substantially changed during the last
decade, because of growing reliance on external partners. As a
consequence, a new task for purchasing arises, as firms need to
understand which suppliers actually do have high potential
contributing to the innovativeness of the firm and which do not.
Proper organization of the purchasing function is important since
for the majority of manufacturing companies deal with substantial
material costs which pass through the purchasing function. In the past
the purchasing function was largely seen as a transaction-oriented,
clerical function but today purchasing is the intermediate with supply
chain partners contributing to innovations, be it product or process
innovations. Therefore, purchasing function has to be organized
differently to enable firm innovation potential.
However, innovations are inherently risky. There are behavioral
risk (that some partner will take advantage of the other party),
technological risk in terms of complexity of products and processes
of manufacturing and incoming materials and finally market risks,
which in fact judge the value of the innovation. These risks are
investigated in this work. Specifically, technological risks which deal
with complexity of the products, and processes will be investigated
more thoroughly. Buying components or such high edge technologies
necessities careful investigation of technical features and therefore is
usually conducted by a team of experts. Therefore it is hypothesized
that higher the technological risk, higher will be the centralization of
the purchasing function as an interface with other supply chain
members.
Main contribution of this research lies is in the fact that analysis
was performed on a large data set of 1493 companies, from 25
countries collected in the GMRG 4 survey. Most analyses of
purchasing function are done by case study analysis of innovative
firms. Therefore this study contributes with empirical evaluations that
can be generalized.
Abstract: This paper is concerning the issues of behaviour of
lightweight expanded clay aggregates concrete exposed to high
temperature. Lightweight aggregates from expanded clay are
produced by firing of row material up to temperature 1050°C.
Lightweight aggregates have suitable properties in terms of volume
stability, when exposed to temperatures up to 1050°C, which could
indicate their suitability for construction applications with higher risk
of fire. The test samples were exposed to heat by using the standard
temperature-time curve ISO 834. Negative changes in resulting
mechanical properties, such as compressive strength, tensile strength,
and flexural strength were evaluated. Also visual evaluation of the
specimen was performed. On specimen exposed to excessive heat, an
explosive spalling could be observed, due to evaporation of
considerable amount of unbounded water from the inner structure of
the concrete.
Abstract: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has
increased in conjunction with obesity. The accuracy of risk factors
for detecting NAFLD in obese adolescents has not undergone a
formal evaluation. The aim of this study was to evaluate predictors of
NAFLD among Egyptian female obese adolescents. The study
included 162 obese female adolescents. All were subjected to
anthropometry, biochemical analysis and abdominal ultrasongraphic
assessment. Metabolic syndrome (MS) was diagnosed according to
the IDF criteria. Significant association between presence of MS and
NAFLD was observed. Obese adolescents with NAFLD had
significantly higher levels of ALT, triglycerides, fasting glucose,
insulin, blood pressure and HOMA-IR, whereas decreased HDL-C
levels as compared with obese cases without NAFLD. Receiver–
operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis shows that ALT is a
sensitive predictor for NAFLD, confirming that ALT can be used as a
marker of NAFLD.
Abstract: An anthropometric study applied to 1,115 students of
the Faculty of Chemical Sciences and Engineering of the
Autonomous University of California. Thirteen individual
measurements were taken in a sitting position. The results obtained
allow forming a reliable anthropometric database for statistical
studies and analysis and inferences of specific distributions, so the
opinion of experts in occupational medicine recommendations may
emit to reduce risks resulting in an alteration of the vital signs during
the execution of their school activities. Another use of these analyses
is to use them as a reliable reference for future deeper research, to the
design of spaces, tools, utensils, workstations, with anthropometric
dimensions and ergonomic characteristics suitable to use.
Abstract: The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a
lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have
to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally
compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit
Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to
information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit
score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is
to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to
use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates
Credit Scores.
Abstract: The article demonstrates on a case study how it is
possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation Risk
identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to
the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who
are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on
statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upperextremities
musculoskeletal disorders.
Abstract: This paper deals with a simulation programs and
technologies using in the educational process for members of the crisis
management. Risk analysis, simulation, preparation and planning are
among the main activities of workers of crisis management. Made
correctly simulation of emergency defines the extent of the danger. On
this basis, it is possible to effectively prepare and plan measures to
minimize damage. The paper is focused on simulation programs that
are trained at the University of Defence. Implementation of the outputs
from simulation programs in decision-making processes of crisis staffs
is one of the main tasks of the research project.
Abstract: Chloride resistance in Ultra High Performance
Concrete (UHPC) is determined in this paper. This work deals with
the one dimension chloride transport, which can be potentially
dangerous particularly for the durability of concrete structures. Risk
of reinforcement corrosion due to exposure to the concrete surface to
direct the action of chloride ions (mainly in the form de-icing salts or
groundwater) is dangerously increases. The measured data are
investigated depending on the depth of penetration of chloride ions
into the concrete structure. Comparative measurements with normal
strength concrete are done as well. The experimental results showed
that UHCP have improved resistance of chlorides penetration than
NSC and also chloride diffusion depth is significantly lower in
UHCP.
Abstract: The European Union Survey on Income and Living
Conditions (EU-SILC) is a popular survey which provides
information on income, poverty, social exclusion and living
conditions of households and individuals in the European Union.
The EU-SILC contains variables which may contain outliers. The
presence of outliers can have an impact on the measures and
indicators used by the EU-SILC. In this paper, we used data sets
from various countries to analyze the presence of outliers. In addition,
we obtain some indicators after removing these outliers, and a
comparison between both situations can be observed. Finally, some
conclusions are obtained.