Abstract: The authors have been developing several models
based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box-
Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series
of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest
Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the
different type models have been experimented as well as the features
used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the
best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to
their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a
comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using
simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward
architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and
a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the
task of predicting the mentioned time series.
Abstract: ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.
Abstract: In this work, the autoregressive vectors are used to
know dynamics of the Agricultural export and import, and the real
effective exchange rate (REER). In order to analyze the interactions,
the impulse- response function is used in decomposition of variance,
causality of Granger as well as the methodology of Johansen to know
the relations co integration. The REER causes agricultural export and
import in the sense of Granger. The influence displays the
innovations of the REER on the agricultural export and import is not
very great and the duration of the effects is short. It displays that
REER has an immediate positive effect, after the tenth year it
displays smooth results on the agricultural export. Evidence of a
vector exists co integration, In short run, REER has smaller effects
on export and import, compared to the long-run effects.
Abstract: The detection of outliers is very essential because of
their responsibility for producing huge interpretative problem in
linear as well as in nonlinear regression analysis. Much work has
been accomplished on the identification of outlier in linear
regression, but not in nonlinear regression. In this article we propose
several outlier detection techniques for nonlinear regression. The
main idea is to use the linear approximation of a nonlinear model and
consider the gradient as the design matrix. Subsequently, the
detection techniques are formulated. Six detection measures are
developed that combined with three estimation techniques such as the
Least-Squares, M and MM-estimators. The study shows that among
the six measures, only the studentized residual and Cook Distance
which combined with the MM estimator, consistently capable of
identifying the correct outliers.
Abstract: The main aim of this study is to identify the most
influential variables that cause defects on the items produced by a
casting company located in Turkey. To this end, one of the items
produced by the company with high defective percentage rates is
selected. Two approaches-the regression analysis and decision treesare
used to model the relationship between process parameters and
defect types. Although logistic regression models failed, decision tree
model gives meaningful results. Based on these results, it can be
claimed that the decision tree approach is a promising technique for
determining the most important process variables.
Abstract: Employing a recently introduced unified adaptive filter
theory, we show how the performance of a large number of important
adaptive filter algorithms can be predicted within a general framework
in nonstationary environment. This approach is based on energy conservation
arguments and does not need to assume a Gaussian or white
distribution for the regressors. This general performance analysis can
be used to evaluate the mean square performance of the Least Mean
Square (LMS) algorithm, its normalized version (NLMS), the family
of Affine Projection Algorithms (APA), the Recursive Least Squares
(RLS), the Data-Reusing LMS (DR-LMS), its normalized version
(NDR-LMS), the Block Least Mean Squares (BLMS), the Block
Normalized LMS (BNLMS), the Transform Domain Adaptive Filters
(TDAF) and the Subband Adaptive Filters (SAF) in nonstationary
environment. Also, we establish the general expressions for the
steady-state excess mean square in this environment for all these
adaptive algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate through simulations that
these results are useful in predicting the adaptive filter performance.
Abstract: Sleep stage scoring is the process of classifying the
stage of the sleep in which the subject is in. Sleep is classified into
two states based on the constellation of physiological parameters.
The two states are the non-rapid eye movement (NREM) and the
rapid eye movement (REM). The NREM sleep is also classified into
four stages (1-4). These states and the state wakefulness are
distinguished from each other based on the brain activity. In this
work, a classification method for automated sleep stage scoring
based on a single EEG recording using wavelet packet decomposition
was implemented. Thirty two ploysomnographic recording from the
MIT-BIH database were used for training and validation of the
proposed method. A single EEG recording was extracted and
smoothed using Savitzky-Golay filter. Wavelet packets
decomposition up to the fourth level based on 20th order Daubechies
filter was used to extract features from the EEG signal. A features
vector of 54 features was formed. It was reduced to a size of 25 using
the gain ratio method and fed into a classifier of regression trees. The
regression trees were trained using 67% of the records available. The
records for training were selected based on cross validation of the
records. The remaining of the records was used for testing the
classifier. The overall correct rate of the proposed method was found
to be around 75%, which is acceptable compared to the techniques in
the literature.
Abstract: This paper reports a new approach on identifying the
individuality of persons by using parametric classification of multiple
mental thoughts. In the approach, electroencephalogram (EEG)
signals were recorded when the subjects were thinking of one or
more (up to five) mental thoughts. Autoregressive features were
computed from these EEG signals and classified by Linear
Discriminant classifier. The results here indicate that near perfect
identification of 400 test EEG patterns from four subjects was
possible, thereby opening up a new avenue in biometrics.
Abstract: Missing data is a persistent problem in almost all
areas of empirical research. The missing data must be treated very
carefully, as data plays a fundamental role in every analysis.
Improper treatment can distort the analysis or generate biased results.
In this paper, we compare and contrast various imputation techniques
on missing data sets and make an empirical evaluation of these
methods so as to construct quality software models. Our empirical
study is based on NASA-s two public dataset. KC4 and KC1. The
actual data sets of 125 cases and 2107 cases respectively, without
any missing values were considered. The data set is used to create
Missing at Random (MAR) data Listwise Deletion(LD), Mean
Substitution(MS), Interpolation, Regression with an error term and
Expectation-Maximization (EM) approaches were used to compare
the effects of the various techniques.
Abstract: Avoiding learning failures in mathematics e-learning environments caused by emotional problems in students with autism has become an important topic for combining of special education with information and communications technology. This study presents an adaptive emotional adjustment model in mathematics e-learning for students with autism, emphasizing the lack of emotional perception in mathematics e-learning systems. In addition, an emotion classification for students with autism was developed by inducing emotions in mathematical learning environments to record changes in the physiological signals and facial expressions of students. Using these methods, 58 emotional features were obtained. These features were then processed using one-way ANOVA and information gain (IG). After reducing the feature dimension, methods of support vector machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and classification and regression trees (CART) were used to classify four emotional categories: baseline, happy, angry, and anxious. After testing and comparisons, in a situation without feature selection, the accuracy rate of the SVM classification can reach as high as 79.3-%. After using IG to reduce the feature dimension, with only 28 features remaining, SVM still has a classification accuracy of 78.2-%. The results of this research could enhance the effectiveness of eLearning in special education.
Abstract: Due to the call of global warming effects, city planners aim at actions for reducing carbon emission. One of the approaches is to promote the usage of public transportation system toward the transit-oriented-development. For example, rapid transit system in Taipei city and Kaohsiung city are opening. However, until November 2008 the average daily patronage counted only 113,774 passengers at Kaohsiung MRT systems, much less than which was expected. Now the crucial questions: how the public transport competes with private transport? And more importantly, what factors would enhance the use of public transport? To give the answers to those questions, our study first applied regression to analyze the factors attracting people to use public transport around cities in the world. It is shown in our study that the number of MRT stations, city population, cost of living, transit fare, density, gasoline price, and scooter being a major mode of transport are the major factors. Subsequently, our study identified successful and unsuccessful cities in regard of the public transport usage based on the diagnosis of regression residuals. Finally, by comparing transportation strategies adopted by those successful cities, our conclusion stated that Kaohsiung City could apply strategies such as increasing parking fees, reducing parking spaces in downtown area, and reducing transfer time by providing more bus services and public bikes to promote the usage of public transport.
Abstract: Through 1980s, management accounting researchers
described the increasing irrelevance of traditional control and
performance measurement systems. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC)
is a critical business tool for a lot of organizations. It is a
performance measurement system which translates mission and
strategy into objectives. Strategy map approach is a development
variant of BSC in which some necessary causal relations must be
established. To recognize these relations, experts usually use
experience. It is also possible to utilize regression for the same
purpose. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which is one of the
most powerful methods of multivariate data analysis, obtains more
appropriate results than traditional methods such as regression. In the
present paper, we propose SEM for the first time to identify the
relations between objectives in the strategy map, and a test to
measure the importance of relations. In SEM, factor analysis and test
of hypotheses are done in the same analysis. SEM is known to be
better than other techniques at supporting analysis and reporting. Our
approach provides a framework which permits the experts to design
the strategy map by applying a comprehensive and scientific method
together with their experience. Therefore this scheme is a more
reliable method in comparison with the previously established
methods.
Abstract: This experiment discusses the effects of fracture
parameters such as depth, length, width, angle and the number of the
fracture to the conductance properties of laterite using the DUK-2B
digital electrical measurement system combined with the method of
simulating the fractures. The results of experiment show that the
changes of fracture parameters produce effects to the conductance
properties of laterite. There is a clear degressive period of the
conductivity of laterite during increasing the depth, length, width, or
the angle and the quantity of fracture gradually. When the depth of
fracture exceeds the half thickness of the soil body, the conductivity of
laterite shows evidently non-linear diminishing pattern and the
amplitude of decrease tends to increase. The length of fracture has
fewer effects than the depth to the conductivity. When the width of
fracture reaches some fixed values, the change of the conductivity is
less sensitive to the change of the width, and at this time, the
conductivity of laterite maintains at a stable level. When the angle of
fracture is less than 45°, the decrease of the conductivity is more
clearly as the angle increases. But when angle is more than 45°,
change of the conductivity is relatively gentle as the angle increases.
The increasing quantity of the fracture causes the other fracture
parameters having great impact on the change of conductivity. When
moisture content and temperature were unchanged, depth and angle of
fractures are the major factors affecting the conductivity of laterite
soil; quantity, length, and width are minor influencing factors. The
sensitivity of fracture parameters affect conductivity of laterite soil is:
depth >angles >quantity >length >width.
Abstract: The present study investigated the relationship
between personality characteristics of drivers and the number and
amount of fines they have in a year .This study was carried out on
120 male taxi drivers that worked at least seven hours in a day in
Lamerd - a city in the south of IRAN. Subjects were chosen
voluntarily among those available. Predictive variables were the NEO
–five great personality factors (1. conscientiousness 2. Openness to
Experience 3.Neuroticism4 .Extraversion 5.Agreeableness )
thecriterion variables were the number and amount of fines the
drivers have had the last three years. the result of regression analysis
showed that conscientiousness factor was able to negatively predict
the number and amount of financial fines the drivers had during the
last three years. The openness factor positively predicted the number
of fines they had in last 3 years and the amount of financial fines
during the last year. The extraversion factor both meaningfully and
positively could predict only the amount of financial fines they had
during the last year. Increasing age was associated with decreasing
driving offenses as well as financial loss.The findings can be useful
in recognizing the high-risk drivers and leading them to counseling
centers .They can also be used to inform the drivers about their
personality and it’s relation with their accident rate. Such criteria
would be of great importance in employing drivers in different places
such as companies, offices etc…
Abstract: Cutting tools are widely used in manufacturing processes and drilling is the most commonly used machining process. Although drill-bits used in drilling may not be expensive, their breakage can cause damage to expensive work piece being drilled and at the same time has major impact on productivity. Predicting drill-bit breakage, therefore, is important in reducing cost and improving productivity. This study uses twenty features extracted from two degradation signals viz., thrust force and torque. The methodology used involves developing and comparing decision tree, random forest, and multinomial logistic regression models for classifying and predicting drill-bit breakage using degradation signals.
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to examine to what
extend classroom management efficacy, marital status, gender, and
teaching experience predict burnout among primary school teachers.
Participants of this study were 523 (345 female, 178 male) teachers
who completed inventories. The results of multiple regression
analysis indicated that three dimensions of teacher burnout
(Emotional Exhaustion, Depersonalization, Personal
Accomplishment) were affected differently from four predictor
variables. Findings indicated that for the emotional exhaustion,
classroom management efficacy, marital status and teaching
experience; for depersonalization dimension, classroom management
efficacy and marital status and finally for the personal
accomplishment dimension, classroom management efficacy, gender,
and teaching experience were significant predictors.
Abstract: FW4 is a newly developed hot die material widely
used in Forging Dies manufacturing. The right selection of the
machining conditions is one of the most important aspects to take
into consideration in the Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) of
FW4. In this paper an attempt has been made to develop
mathematical models for relating the Material Removal Rate (MRR),
Tool Wear Ratio (TWR) and surface roughness (Ra) to machining
parameters (current, pulse-on time and voltage). Furthermore, a study
was carried out to analyze the effects of machining parameters in
respect of listed technological characteristics. The results of analysis
of variance (ANOVA) indicate that the proposed mathematical
models, can adequately describe the performance within the limits of
the factors being studied.
Abstract: Among neural models the Support Vector Machine
(SVM) solutions are attracting increasing attention, mostly because
they eliminate certain crucial questions involved by neural network
construction. The main drawback of standard SVM is its high
computational complexity, therefore recently a new technique, the
Least Squares SVM (LS–SVM) has been introduced. In this paper we
present an extended view of the Least Squares Support Vector
Regression (LS–SVR), which enables us to develop new
formulations and algorithms to this regression technique. Based on
manipulating the linear equation set -which embodies all information
about the regression in the learning process- some new methods are
introduced to simplify the formulations, speed up the calculations
and/or provide better results.
Abstract: Renewable energy resources are inexhaustible, clean as compared with conventional resources. Also, it is used to supply regions with no grid, no telephone lines, and often with difficult accessibility by common transport. Satellite earth stations which located in remote areas are the most important application of renewable energy. Neural control is a branch of the general field of intelligent control, which is based on the concept of artificial intelligence. This paper presents the mathematical modeling of satellite earth station power system which is required for simulating the system.Aswan is selected to be the site under consideration because it is a rich region with solar energy. The complete power system is simulated using MATLAB–SIMULINK.An artificial neural network (ANN) based model has been developed for the optimum operation of earth station power system. An ANN is trained using a back propagation with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The best validation performance is obtained for minimum mean square error. The regression between the network output and the corresponding target is equal to 96% which means a high accuracy. Neural network controller architecture gives satisfactory results with small number of neurons, hence better in terms of memory and time are required for NNC implementation. The results indicate that the proposed control unit using ANN can be successfully used for controlling the satellite earth station power system.
Abstract: Revolutions Applications such as telecommunications, hands-free communications, recording, etc. which need at least one microphone, the signal is usually infected by noise and echo. The important application is the speech enhancement, which is done to remove suppressed noises and echoes taken by a microphone, beside preferred speech. Accordingly, the microphone signal has to be cleaned using digital signal processing DSP tools before it is played out, transmitted, or stored. Engineers have so far tried different approaches to improving the speech by get back the desired speech signal from the noisy observations. Especially Mobile communication, so in this paper will do reconstruction of the speech signal, observed in additive background noise, using the Kalman filter technique to estimate the parameters of the Autoregressive Process (AR) in the state space model and the output speech signal obtained by the MATLAB. The accurate estimation by Kalman filter on speech would enhance and reduce the noise then compare and discuss the results between actual values and estimated values which produce the reconstructed signals.