Impact of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (Reer) on Turkish Agricultural Trade
In this work, the autoregressive vectors are used to
know dynamics of the Agricultural export and import, and the real
effective exchange rate (REER). In order to analyze the interactions,
the impulse- response function is used in decomposition of variance,
causality of Granger as well as the methodology of Johansen to know
the relations co integration. The REER causes agricultural export and
import in the sense of Granger. The influence displays the
innovations of the REER on the agricultural export and import is not
very great and the duration of the effects is short. It displays that
REER has an immediate positive effect, after the tenth year it
displays smooth results on the agricultural export. Evidence of a
vector exists co integration, In short run, REER has smaller effects
on export and import, compared to the long-run effects.
[1] Cushman, D.O., 1988. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on
international trade", Journal of International Economics, 124: 24-42.
[2] Caballero, R.J. and Corbo, V., 1989. "The effects of real exchange rate
uncertainty onexports: Empirical evidence", The World Bank Economic
Review, 013 (2).
[3] Lastrapes, W. and Koray, F., 1990."Exchange rate volatility and U.S.
multilateral trade Flows", Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(3): 134-48.
[4] Hooper, P., & Kohlhagen, S. W. (1978), "The effect of exchange rate
uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade". Journal of
International Economics, 8, 483-511.
[5] Gotur, P., 1985. "Effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: Some
further evidence", IMF StagPaper 32: 475-5 12.
[6] Maskus, K.E., 1986."Exchange rate risks and U.S. trade: A sectoral
analysis", Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Econ. Rev.
[7] Oyejide, T.A., 1986. "The efects of trade and exchange rate policies on
agriculture in Nigeria". Research Report 55, International Food Policy
Research Institute.
[8] Hughes, D.W., and Penson J. B., 1985. "Effects of Selected
Macroeconomic Policies on Agriculture: 1984-1990", Agricultural
Financial Review. 45. pp. 81-91.
[9] Vellianitis-Fidas, A., 1976. "The Impact of Devaluation on U.S.
Agricultural Exports", Washington, D.C. Agricultural Economics
Research 28, 107-116.
[10] Johnson, P. R., Grennes, T., and Thursby, M.. 1977. "Devaluation,
Foreign Trade Control, and Domestic Wheat Prices". American Journal
of Agricultural Economics 59619-627.
[11] Chambers, R. G. and Just R. E., 1991. "Effects of exchange rate
changes on U.S.Agriculture", Amex J. of Agric Econs, 73: 33-43.
[12] Paarlberg, P.L., Webb, A.J., Morey, A., and Sharples, J.A., 1994.
"Impacts of Policy on U.S. Agricultural Trade", United States
Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service.
[13] Schwartz, N.E., 1986. "The Consequences of a Floating Exchange Rate
for the U.S. Wheat Market", American Journal of Agricultural
Economics 68448-433.
[14] Bradshaw, G. and Orden, D., 1990. "Granger Causality from the
Exchange Rate to Agricultural Prices and Export Sales". Western
Journal of Agricultural Economics. 15:1 (July). pp. 100-110.
[15] Robertson, J.C., and Orden, D., 1990. "Monetary Impacts on Prices in
the Short and Long Run: Some Evidence from New Zealand", American
Journal of Agricultural Economics 72:160-171.
[16] Babula, R. A., Ruppel, F. J., and Bessler, D.A., 1995. "U.S. Corn
Exports: the Role of the Exchange Rate", Journal of Agricultural
Economics 13:75-88.
[17] Dorfman, J. H., and Lastrapes, W. D. 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of
Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian
Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions", American Journal
of Agricultural Economics 78530-541.
[18] Orden. D., 2002. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Trade",
Journal of Agricultural & Applied Economics, 34(2), 303-312.
[19] Kinade, A., 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Price and Agricultural Supply
Response in Ethiopia: The Case of Perennial Crops", AERC Research
Paper 99.
[20] Lamb, R. L. 2000. "Food Crops, Exports, and the Short-Run Policy
Response of Agriculture in Africa", American Journal of Agricultural
Economics, 22:271-298.
[21] Sheldon, I., 2003. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade",
The Ohio State University Conference Paper.
[22] Sivri U., Usta C.,2001, "Reel Döviz Kuru, ─░hracat ve ─░thalat Aras─▒ndaki
İlişki", Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt:19, Sayı: 4, pp.1-9.
[23] Akbostanc─▒, E., 2002. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance": The Turkish J
Curve", ERC / METU 6. International Conference in Economics,
September Ankara. X model.
[24] Doğanlar M., Bal H., Özmen M., 2004. "Uluslararası Ticaret ve
Türkiye-nin İhracat Fonksiyonu", Manas Üniversitesi S. B. E Dergisi,
Say─▒: 7, pp.83-109.
[25] Aydın, M.F., Çıplak U., Yücel M. E., 2004. "Export Supply and Import
Demand Models for the Turkish Economy", The Central Bank of the
Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, No.04/09.
[26] Ertekin M., 2001. "T├╝rkiye-de 1980 Sonras─▒nda Döviz Kuru Politikalar─▒
ve Dış Ticaret", Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Dergisi, C: 3, S: 1.
[27] Food Agricultural Organization (FAO), www.fao.org
[28] United National Statistics Division, www.un.org
[29] International Monetary Fund , www.imf.org
[30] EViews 4.0, 2001. User-s Guide, ISBN 1-880411-28-8, USA
[31] Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1979. "Distribution of the Estimators of
Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Journal of the American
Statistical Association, Vol.74, pp. 427-431.
[32] Perron, P., 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit
Root Hypothesis", Econometrica, Vol.57, No.6, pp.1361-1401.
[33] Mackinnon, J.J., 1991. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests, in
Long-run Economic Relationship: Readings in Cointegration", ed. By
R.F. Engle and C.W. Granger, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.267-
276.
[34] Yamak, R., Korkmaz, A., 2005. "Reel Döviz Kuru ve D─▒┼ƒ Ticaret
Dengesi İlişkileri ", İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi, Ekonometri
ve ─░statistik Dergisi, (2), 11-29.
[35] Hamilton J. D., 1994. "Time Series Analysis", Princeton University
Press.Hooper, P and Kohlhagen, S.W., 1978. The effects of exchange
rate risk and uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade,
J. of Int. Econs, 8: 483-5 11.
[36] Granger, C.W.J., 1969. "Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric
Models and Cross-Spectral Methods", Econometrica, Vol.37, pp.424-
438.
[37] Engle, R. F. and Granger, C.W.,1987. "C0-integration and Error
Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing", Econometrica, 55,
251-276.
[38] Johansen, S., 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of
Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregresive Model",
Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.
[39] Fearley, N. and Bekken, J.T., 2005." Short- and Long - Run Demand
Effects in Transport: A Literature Survey", Institute of Transport
Economics, Norway.
[1] Cushman, D.O., 1988. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on
international trade", Journal of International Economics, 124: 24-42.
[2] Caballero, R.J. and Corbo, V., 1989. "The effects of real exchange rate
uncertainty onexports: Empirical evidence", The World Bank Economic
Review, 013 (2).
[3] Lastrapes, W. and Koray, F., 1990."Exchange rate volatility and U.S.
multilateral trade Flows", Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(3): 134-48.
[4] Hooper, P., & Kohlhagen, S. W. (1978), "The effect of exchange rate
uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade". Journal of
International Economics, 8, 483-511.
[5] Gotur, P., 1985. "Effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: Some
further evidence", IMF StagPaper 32: 475-5 12.
[6] Maskus, K.E., 1986."Exchange rate risks and U.S. trade: A sectoral
analysis", Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Econ. Rev.
[7] Oyejide, T.A., 1986. "The efects of trade and exchange rate policies on
agriculture in Nigeria". Research Report 55, International Food Policy
Research Institute.
[8] Hughes, D.W., and Penson J. B., 1985. "Effects of Selected
Macroeconomic Policies on Agriculture: 1984-1990", Agricultural
Financial Review. 45. pp. 81-91.
[9] Vellianitis-Fidas, A., 1976. "The Impact of Devaluation on U.S.
Agricultural Exports", Washington, D.C. Agricultural Economics
Research 28, 107-116.
[10] Johnson, P. R., Grennes, T., and Thursby, M.. 1977. "Devaluation,
Foreign Trade Control, and Domestic Wheat Prices". American Journal
of Agricultural Economics 59619-627.
[11] Chambers, R. G. and Just R. E., 1991. "Effects of exchange rate
changes on U.S.Agriculture", Amex J. of Agric Econs, 73: 33-43.
[12] Paarlberg, P.L., Webb, A.J., Morey, A., and Sharples, J.A., 1994.
"Impacts of Policy on U.S. Agricultural Trade", United States
Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service.
[13] Schwartz, N.E., 1986. "The Consequences of a Floating Exchange Rate
for the U.S. Wheat Market", American Journal of Agricultural
Economics 68448-433.
[14] Bradshaw, G. and Orden, D., 1990. "Granger Causality from the
Exchange Rate to Agricultural Prices and Export Sales". Western
Journal of Agricultural Economics. 15:1 (July). pp. 100-110.
[15] Robertson, J.C., and Orden, D., 1990. "Monetary Impacts on Prices in
the Short and Long Run: Some Evidence from New Zealand", American
Journal of Agricultural Economics 72:160-171.
[16] Babula, R. A., Ruppel, F. J., and Bessler, D.A., 1995. "U.S. Corn
Exports: the Role of the Exchange Rate", Journal of Agricultural
Economics 13:75-88.
[17] Dorfman, J. H., and Lastrapes, W. D. 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of
Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian
Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions", American Journal
of Agricultural Economics 78530-541.
[18] Orden. D., 2002. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Trade",
Journal of Agricultural & Applied Economics, 34(2), 303-312.
[19] Kinade, A., 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Price and Agricultural Supply
Response in Ethiopia: The Case of Perennial Crops", AERC Research
Paper 99.
[20] Lamb, R. L. 2000. "Food Crops, Exports, and the Short-Run Policy
Response of Agriculture in Africa", American Journal of Agricultural
Economics, 22:271-298.
[21] Sheldon, I., 2003. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade",
The Ohio State University Conference Paper.
[22] Sivri U., Usta C.,2001, "Reel Döviz Kuru, ─░hracat ve ─░thalat Aras─▒ndaki
İlişki", Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt:19, Sayı: 4, pp.1-9.
[23] Akbostanc─▒, E., 2002. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance": The Turkish J
Curve", ERC / METU 6. International Conference in Economics,
September Ankara. X model.
[24] Doğanlar M., Bal H., Özmen M., 2004. "Uluslararası Ticaret ve
Türkiye-nin İhracat Fonksiyonu", Manas Üniversitesi S. B. E Dergisi,
Say─▒: 7, pp.83-109.
[25] Aydın, M.F., Çıplak U., Yücel M. E., 2004. "Export Supply and Import
Demand Models for the Turkish Economy", The Central Bank of the
Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, No.04/09.
[26] Ertekin M., 2001. "T├╝rkiye-de 1980 Sonras─▒nda Döviz Kuru Politikalar─▒
ve Dış Ticaret", Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Dergisi, C: 3, S: 1.
[27] Food Agricultural Organization (FAO), www.fao.org
[28] United National Statistics Division, www.un.org
[29] International Monetary Fund , www.imf.org
[30] EViews 4.0, 2001. User-s Guide, ISBN 1-880411-28-8, USA
[31] Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1979. "Distribution of the Estimators of
Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Journal of the American
Statistical Association, Vol.74, pp. 427-431.
[32] Perron, P., 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit
Root Hypothesis", Econometrica, Vol.57, No.6, pp.1361-1401.
[33] Mackinnon, J.J., 1991. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests, in
Long-run Economic Relationship: Readings in Cointegration", ed. By
R.F. Engle and C.W. Granger, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.267-
276.
[34] Yamak, R., Korkmaz, A., 2005. "Reel Döviz Kuru ve D─▒┼ƒ Ticaret
Dengesi İlişkileri ", İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi, Ekonometri
ve ─░statistik Dergisi, (2), 11-29.
[35] Hamilton J. D., 1994. "Time Series Analysis", Princeton University
Press.Hooper, P and Kohlhagen, S.W., 1978. The effects of exchange
rate risk and uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade,
J. of Int. Econs, 8: 483-5 11.
[36] Granger, C.W.J., 1969. "Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric
Models and Cross-Spectral Methods", Econometrica, Vol.37, pp.424-
438.
[37] Engle, R. F. and Granger, C.W.,1987. "C0-integration and Error
Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing", Econometrica, 55,
251-276.
[38] Johansen, S., 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of
Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregresive Model",
Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.
[39] Fearley, N. and Bekken, J.T., 2005." Short- and Long - Run Demand
Effects in Transport: A Literature Survey", Institute of Transport
Economics, Norway.
@article{"International Journal of Business, Human and Social Sciences:58396", author = "Halil Fidan", title = "Impact of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (Reer) on Turkish Agricultural Trade", abstract = "In this work, the autoregressive vectors are used to
know dynamics of the Agricultural export and import, and the real
effective exchange rate (REER). In order to analyze the interactions,
the impulse- response function is used in decomposition of variance,
causality of Granger as well as the methodology of Johansen to know
the relations co integration. The REER causes agricultural export and
import in the sense of Granger. The influence displays the
innovations of the REER on the agricultural export and import is not
very great and the duration of the effects is short. It displays that
REER has an immediate positive effect, after the tenth year it
displays smooth results on the agricultural export. Evidence of a
vector exists co integration, In short run, REER has smaller effects
on export and import, compared to the long-run effects.", keywords = "Agricultural import, agricultural export,
autoregressive causality of granger, impulse-response function, long
run, short run.", volume = "2", number = "5", pages = "549-13", }
