Abstract: This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.
Abstract: The present work deals with analyses of the effects
of bearing curvature and non-Newtonian characteristics on the load capacity of an exponential rectangular squeeze film bearing using
Bingham fluids as lubricants. Bingham fluids are characterized by an
yield value and hence the formation of a “rigid" core in the region
between the plates is justified. The flow is confined to the region
between the core and the plates. The shape of the core has been
identified through numerical means. Further, numerical solutions for
the pressure distribution and load carrying capacity of the bearing
for various values of Bingham number and curvature parameter have
been obtained. The effects of bearing curvature and non-Newtonian
characteristics of the lubricant on the bearing performances have been
discussed.
Abstract: This article is focused on the calculation of heat
radiation intensity and its optimization on an aluminum mould
surface. The inside of the mould is sprinkled with a special powder
and its outside is heated by infra heaters located above the mould
surface, up to a temperature of 250°C. By this way artificial leathers
in the car industry are produced (e. g. the artificial leather on a car
dashboard). A mathematical model of heat radiation of infra heaters
on a mould surface is described in this paper. This model allows us to
calculate a heat-intensity radiation on the mould surface for the
concrete location of infra heaters above the mould surface. It is
necessary to ensure approximately the same heat intensity radiation
on the mould surface by finding a suitable location for the infra
heaters, and in this way the same material structure and color of
artificial leather. In the model we have used a genetic algorithm to
optimize the radiation intensity on the mould surface. Experimental
measured values for the heat radiation intensity by a sensor in the
surroundings of an infra heater are used for the calculation
procedures. A computational procedure was programmed in language
Matlab.
Abstract: Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s can be modeled for
High Energy Particle analysis with special emphasis on shower core
location. The work describes the use of an ANN based system which
has been configured to predict locations of cores of showers in the
range 1010.5 to 1020.5 eV. The system receives density values as
inputs and generates coordinates of shower events recorded for values
captured by 20 core positions and 80 detectors in an area of 100
meters. Twenty ANNs are trained for the purpose and the positions
of shower events optimized by using cooperative ANN learning. The
results derived with variations of input upto 50% show success rates
in the range of 90s.
Abstract: People from different cultures favor web pages
characterized by the values of their culture and, therefore, tend to
prefer different characteristics of a website according to their cultural
values in terms of navigation, security, product information, customer
service, shopping and design tools. For a company aiming to
globalize its market it is useful to implement country specific cultural
interfaces and different web sites for countries with different cultures.
This paper, following the conclusions proposed by two models of
Hall and Hofstede, and the studies of Marcus and Gould, defines,
through an empirical analysis, the guidelines of web design for both
the Scandinavian countries and Malaysia.
Abstract: The aim of this work is to study the possible use of
stone cutting sludge waste in concrete production, which would
reduce both the environmental impact and the production cost .Slurry
sludge was used a source of water in concrete production, which was
obtained from Samara factory/Jordan, The physico-chemical and
mineralogical characterization of the sludge was carried out to
identify the major components and to compare it with the typical
sand used to produce concrete. Samples analysis showed that 96% of
slurry sludge volume is water, so it should be considered as an
important source of water. Results indicated that the use of slurry
sludge as water source in concrete production has insignificant effect
on compression strength, while it has a sharp effect on the slump
values. Using slurry sludge with a percentage of 25% of the total
water content obtained successful concrete samples regarding slump
and compression tests. To clarify slurry sludge, settling process can
be used to remove the suspended solid. A settling period of 30 min.
obtained 99% removal efficiency. The clarified water is suitable for
using in concrete mixes, which reduce water consumption, conserve
water recourses, increase the profit, reduce operation cost and save
the environment. Additionally, the dry sludge could be used in the
mix design instead of the fine materials with sizes < 160 um. This
application could conserve the natural materials and solve the
environmental and economical problem caused by sludge
accumulation.
Abstract: Isobaric vapor-liquid equilibrium measurements are
reported for the binary mixture of Methyl acetate and
Isopropylbenzene at 97.3 kPa. The measurements have been
performed using a vapor recirculating type (modified Othmer's)
equilibrium still. The mixture shows positive deviation from ideality
and does not form an azeotrope. The activity coefficients have been
calculated taking into consideration the vapor phase nonideality. The
data satisfy the thermodynamic consistency tests of Herington and
Black. The activity coefficients have been satisfactorily correlated by
means of the Margules, NRTL, and Black equations. A comparison
of the values of activity coefficients obtained by experimental data
with the UNIFAC model has been made.
Abstract: The main goal of this paper is to establish a
methodology for testing and optimizing GPRS performance over
Libya GSM network as well as to propose a suitable optimization
technique to improve performance. Some measurements of
download, upload, throughput, round-trip time, reliability, handover,
security enhancement and packet loss over a GPRS access network
were carried out. Measured values are compared to the theoretical
values that could be calculated beforehand. This data should be
processed and delivered by the server across the wireless network to
the client. The client on the fly takes those pieces of the data and
process immediately. Also, we illustrate the results by describing the
main parameters that affect the quality of service. Finally, Libya-s
two mobile operators, Libyana Mobile Phone and Al-Madar al-
Jadeed Company are selected as a case study to validate our
methodology.
Abstract: Feature and model selection are in the center of
attention of many researches because of their impact on classifiers-
performance. Both selections are usually performed separately but
recent developments suggest using a combined GA-SVM approach to
perform them simultaneously. This approach improves the
performance of the classifier identifying the best subset of variables
and the optimal parameters- values. Although GA-SVM is an
effective method it is computationally expensive, thus a rough
method can be considered. The paper investigates a joined approach
of Genetic Algorithm and kernel matrix criteria to perform
simultaneously feature and model selection for SVM classification
problem. The purpose of this research is to improve the classification
performance of SVM through an efficient approach, the Kernel
Matrix Genetic Algorithm method (KMGA).
Abstract: The fuzzy technique is an operator introduced in order
to simulate at a mathematical level the compensatory behavior in
process of decision making or subjective evaluation. The following
paper introduces such operators on hand of computer vision
application.
In this paper a novel method based on fuzzy logic reasoning
strategy is proposed for edge detection in digital images without
determining the threshold value. The proposed approach begins by
segmenting the images into regions using floating 3x3 binary matrix.
The edge pixels are mapped to a range of values distinct from each
other. The robustness of the proposed method results for different
captured images are compared to those obtained with the linear Sobel
operator. It is gave a permanent effect in the lines smoothness and
straightness for the straight lines and good roundness for the curved
lines. In the same time the corners get sharper and can be defined
easily.
Abstract: The result of process of territory-s development is the territory-s state of development (TSoD), which is pointed towards the provision and improvement of people-s life conditions. The authors offer to measure the TSoD according to their own developed model. Using the available statistical data regarding the values of model-s elements, the authors empirically show which element mainly determines the TSoD. The findings of the research showed that the key elements of the TSoD are the “Material welfare of people" and “People-s health". Performing a deeper statistical analysis of correlation between these elements, it turned out that it is not so necessary for a country to be bent on trying to increase the material growth of a territory, because a relatively high index of life expectancy at birth could be ensured also by much more modest material resources. On the other hand, the economical feedback of longer lifespan within countries with lower material performance is also relatively low.
Abstract: The research focuses on the effects of polyphenols
extracted from Sambucus nigra fruit, using an experimental arterial
hypertension pattern, as well as their influence on the oxidative
stress. The results reveal the normalization of the reduced glutathion
concentration, as well as a considerable reduction in the
malondialdehide serum concentration by the polyphenolic protection.
The rat blood pressure values were recorded using a CODATM
system, which uses a non-invasive blood pressure measuring method.
All the measured blood pressure components revealed a biostatistically
significant (p
Abstract: The proper selection of the AC-side passive filter
interconnecting the voltage source converter to the power supply is
essential to obtain satisfactory performances of an active power filter
system. The use of the LCL-type filter has the advantage of
eliminating the high frequency switching harmonics in the current
injected into the power supply. This paper is mainly focused on
analyzing the influence of the interface filter parameters on the active
filtering performances. Some design aspects are pointed out. Thus,
the design of the AC interface filter starts from transfer functions by
imposing the filter performance which refers to the significant current
attenuation of the switching harmonics without affecting the
harmonics to be compensated. A Matlab/Simulink model of the entire
active filtering system including a concrete nonlinear load has been
developed to examine the system performances. It is shown that a
gamma LC filter could accomplish the attenuation requirement of the
current provided by converter. Moreover, the existence of an optimal
value of the grid-side inductance which minimizes the total harmonic
distortion factor of the power supply current is pointed out.
Nevertheless, a small converter-side inductance and a damping
resistance in series with the filter capacitance are absolutely needed
in order to keep the ripple and oscillations of the current at the
converter side within acceptable limits. The effect of change in the
LCL-filter parameters is evaluated. It is concluded that good active
filtering performances can be achieved with small values of the
capacitance and converter-side inductance.
Abstract: This paper presents the results of preliminary
assessment of water quality along the coastal areas in the vicinity of
Left Bank Outfall Drainage (LBOD) and Tidal Link Drain (TLD) in
Sindh province after the cyclone 2A occurred in 1999. The water
samples were collected from various RDs of Tidal Link Drain and
lakes during September 2001 to April 2002 and were analysed for
salinity, nitrite, phosphate, ammonia, silicate and suspended material
in water. The results of the study showed considerable variations in
water quality depending upon the location along the coast in the
vicinity of LBOD and RDs. The salinity ranged between 4.39–65.25
ppt in Tidal Link Drain samples whereas 2.4–38.05 ppt in samples
collected from lakes. The values of suspended material at various
RDs of Tidal Link Drain ranged between 56.6–2134 ppm and at the
lakes between 68–297 ppm. The data of continuous monitoring at
RD–93 showed the range of PO4 (8.6–25.2 μg/l), SiO3 (554.96–1462
μg/l), NO2 (0.557.2–25.2 μg/l) and NH3 (9.38–23.62 μg/l). The
concentration of nutrients in water samples collected from different
RDs was found in the range of PO4 (10.85 to 11.47 μg/l), SiO3 (1624
to 2635.08 μg/l), NO2 (20.38 to 44.8 μg/l) and NH3 (24.08 to 26.6
μg/l). Sindh coastal areas which situated at the north-western
boundary the Arabian Sea are highly vulnerable to flood damages
due to flash floods during SW monsoon or impact of sea level rise
and storm surges coupled with cyclones passing through Arabian Sea
along Pakistan coast. It is hoped that the obtained data in this study
would act as a database for future investigations and monitoring of
LBOD and Tidal Link Drain coastal waters.
Abstract: This paper presents the influence of preloading on a)
the contact tractions, b) slip levels and c) stresses at the dovetail
blade-disc interface of an aero-engine through a three-dimensional
(3D) finite element (FE) modeling and analysis. The preloading is
applied by an interference fit at the dovetail interface and the bulk
loading is applied through the rotational speed of rotor. Preloading at
the dovetail interface reduces the peak contact pressure developed
due to bulk loading up to 35%, and reduces the peak contact pressure
and stress difference between top and bottom contact edges.
Increasing the level of preloading reduces the cyclic stress amplitude
at the interface up to certain values of preload and as a consequence,
an improvement in fatigue life could be expected. Fretting damage,
due to vibration and wind milling effect during engine ground
condition, can be minimized by preloading the dovetail interface.
Abstract: A self-association model has been used to understand
the concentration dependence of free energy of mixing (GM), heat of
mixing (HM), entropy of mixing (SM), activity (a) and microscopic
structures, such as concentration fluctuation in long wavelength limit
(Scc(0)) and Warren-Cowley short range order parameter ( 1
α )for Cu-
Tl molten alloys at 1573K. A comparative study of surface tension of
the alloys in the liquid state at that temperature has also been carried
out theoretically as function of composition in the light of Butler-s
model, Prasad-s model and quasi-chemical approach. Most of the
computed thermodynamic properties have been found in agreement
with the experimental values. The analysis reveals that the Cu-Tl
molten alloys at 1573K represent a segregating system at all
concentrations with moderate interaction. Surface tensions computed
from different approaches have been found to be comparable to each
other showing increment with the composition of copper.
Abstract: A seismic isolation pad produced by utilizing the scrap
tire rubber which contains interleaved steel reinforcing cords has been
proposed. The steel cords are expected to function similar to the steel
plates used in conventional laminated rubber bearings. The scrap tire
rubber pad (STRP) isolator is intended to be used in low rise
residential buildings of highly seismic areas of the developing
countries. Experimental investigation was conducted on unbonded
STRP isolators, and test results provided useful information including
stiffness, damping values and an eventual instability of the isolation
unit. Finite element analysis (FE analysis) of STRP isolator was
carried out on properly bonded samples. These types of isolators
provide positive incremental force resisting capacity up to shear strain
level of 155%. This paper briefly discusses the force deformation
behavior of bonded STRP isolators including stability of the isolation
unit.
Abstract: The majority of existing predictors for time series are
model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the
identification of complex systems, usually involving system
identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of
time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually
generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other
chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of
parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor
(MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or
process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the
MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating
polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict
future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and
is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast
prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The
performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the
prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.
Abstract: In this paper, an analysis of a target location estimation
system using the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) for high
performance radar systems is presented. In synthetic environments,
we are here concerned with three key elements of radar system
modeling, which makes radar systems operates accurately in strategic
situation in virtual ground. Radar Cross Section (RCS) modeling
is used to determine the actual amount of electromagnetic waves
that are reflected from a tactical object. Pattern Propagation Factor
(PPF) is an attenuation coefficient of the radar equation that contains
the reflection from the surface of the earth, the diffraction, the
refraction and scattering by the atmospheric environment. Clutter is
the unwanted echoes of electronic systems. For the data fusion of
output results from radar detection in synthetic environment, BLUE
is used and compared with the mean values of each simulation results.
Simulation results demonstrate the performance of the radar system.
Abstract: Plackett-Burman statistical screening of media
constituents and operational conditions for extracellular lipase
production from isolate Trichoderma viride has been carried out in
submerged fermentation. This statistical design is used in the early
stages of experimentation to screen out unimportant factors from a
large number of possible factors. This design involves screening of
up to 'n-1' variables in just 'n' number of experiments. Regression
coefficients and t-values were calculated by subjecting the
experimental data to statistical analysis using Minitab version 15.
The effects of nine process variables were studied in twelve
experimental trials. Maximum lipase activity of 7.83 μmol /ml /min
was obtained in the 6th trail. Pareto chart illustrates the order of
significance of the variables affecting the lipase production. The
present study concludes that the most significant variables affecting
lipase production were found to be palm oil, yeast extract, K2HPO4,
MgSO4 and CaCl2.