Modeling Prices of Electricity Futures at EEX

The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Stochastic Comparisons of Heterogeneous Samples with Homogeneous Exponential Samples

In the present communication, stochastic comparison of a series (parallel) system having heterogeneous components with random lifetimes and series (parallel) system having homogeneous exponential components with random lifetimes has been studied. Further, conditions under which such a comparison is possible has been established.

Bioefficacy of Some Oil-Mixed Plant Derivatives against African Mud Catfish (Clarias gariepinus) Beetles, Dermestes maculatus and Necrobia rufipes

The efficacy of the separate mixing of four tropical spicy and medicinal plant products: Dennettia tripetala Baker (pepper fruit), Eugenia aromatica Hook (clove), Piper guineense (Schum and Thonn) (black pepper) and Monodora myristica (Dunal) (African nut-meg) with a household vegetable oil was evaluated under tropical storage conditions for the control and reproductive performance of Dermestes maculatus (De Geer) (hide beetle) and Necroba rufipes (De Geer) (copra beetle) on African catfish, Clarias gariepinus (Burchell). Each of the plant materials was pulverized into powder and applied as a mix of 1ml of oil and plant powder at 2.5, 5.0, 7.5 and 10.0g per 100g of dried fish, and allowed to dry for 6h. Each of the four oil-mixed powder treatments evoked significant (P < 05) mortalities of the two insects compared with the control (oil only) at 1, 3 and 7 days post treatment. The oil-powder mixture dosages did not prevent insect egg hatchability but while the emergent larvae on the treated samples died, the emergent larvae in the control survived into adults. The application of oil-mixed powders effectively suppressed the emergence of the larvae of the beetles. Similarly, each of the oil-powder mixtures significantly reduced weight loss in smoked fish that were exposed to D. maculatus and N. rufipes when compared to the control (P < 05). The results of this study suggest that the plant powders rather than the domestic oil demonstrated protective ability against the fish beetles and confirm the efficacy of the plant products as pest control agents.

Detection of Pathogenic Escherichia coli Strains Pollution in Red Deer Meat in Latvia and Determination the Compatibility of VT1, VT2, eae A Genes in their Isolate

Tasks of the work were study the possible E.coli contamination in red deer meat, identify pathogenic strains from isolated E.coli, determine their incidence in red deer meat and determine the presence of VT1, VT2 and eaeA genes for the pathogenic E.coli. 8 (10%) samples were randomly selected from 80 analysed isolates of E.coli and PCR reaction was performed on them. PCR was done both on initial materials – samples of red deer meat - and for already isolated liqueurs. Two of analysed venison samples contain verotoxin-producing strains of E. coli. It means that this meat is not safe to consumer. It was proven by the sequestration reaction of E. coli and by comparison of the obtained results with the database of microorganism genome available on the internet that the isolated culture corresponds to region 16S rDNS of E. coli thus presenting correctness of the microbiological methods.

Optimisation of Polycyclic AromaticHydrocarbon Removal from Contaminated Soilusing Modified Fenton Treatment

The performance of modified Fenton (MF) treatment to promote PAH oxidation in artificially contaminated soil was investigated in packed soil column with a hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) delivery system simulating in situ injection. Soil samples were spiked with phenanthrene (low molecular weight PAH) and fluoranthene (high molecular weight PAH) to an initial concentration of 500 mg/kg dried soil each. The effectiveness of process parameters H2O2/soil, iron/soil, chelating agent/soil weight ratios and reaction time were studied using a 24 three level factorial design experiments. Statistically significant quadratic models were developed using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) for degrading PAHs from the soil samples. Optimum operating condition was achieved at mild range of H2O2/soil, iron/soil and chelating agent/soil weight ratios, indicating cost efficient method for treating highly contaminated lands.

Microwave Drying System with High-Tech Phase Controller: A Modified Applicator

Microwave energy can be used for drying purpose. It is unique process. It is distinctly different from conventional drying process. It is advantageous over conventional drying / heating processes. When microwave energy is used for drying purpose, the process can be accelerated with a better control to achieve uniform heating, more conversion efficiency, selective drying and ultimately improved product quality of the output. Also, less floor space and compact system are the added advantages. Existing low power microwave drying system is to be modified with suitable applicator. Appropriate sensors are to be used to measure parameters like moisture, temperature, weight of sample. Suitable high tech controller is to be used to control microwave power continuously from minimum to maximum. Phase - controller, cycle - controller and PWM - controller are some of the advanced power control techniques. It has been proposed to work on turmeric using high-tech phase controller to control the microwave power conveniently. The drying of turmeric with microwave energy employing phase controller gives better results as formulated in this paper and hence new approach of processing turmeric will open future doors of profit making to allied industries and the farmers.

Threshold Stress of the Soil Subgrade Evaluation for Highway Formations

The objective of this study is to evaluate the threshold stress of the clay with sand subgrade soil. Threshold stress can be defined as the stress level above which cyclic loading leads to excessive deformation and eventual failure. The thickness determination of highways formations using the threshold stress approach is a more realistic assessment of the soil behaviour because it is subjected to repeated loadings from moving vehicles. Threshold stress can be evaluated by plastic strain criterion, which is based on the accumulated plastic strain behaviour during cyclic loadings [1]. Several conditions of the all-round pressure the subgrade soil namely, zero confinement, low all-round pressure and high all-round pressure are investigated. The threshold stresses of various soil conditions are determined. Threshold stress of the soil are 60%, 31% and 38.6% for unconfined partially saturated sample, low effective stress saturated sample, high effective stress saturated sample respectively.

Congo Red Photocatalytic Decolourization using Modified Titanium

A study concerning the photocatalytic decolourization of Congo red (CR) dye, over artificial UV irradiation is presented. Photocatalysts based on a commercial titanium dioxide (TiO2) modified with transition metals (Ni, Cu and Zn) were used. The dopage method used was wet impregnation. A TiO2 sample without salt was subjected to the same hydrothermal treatment to be used as reference. Congo red solutions to several pH conditions (natural and basic) were used to evaluate photocatalytic performance of each doped catalysts. Photodecolourization percentage was measured spectrofotrometically after 3 h of treatment to 499 nm as response variable. Kinetics investigations of photodegradation indicated that reactions obey to Langmuir-Hinshelwood model and pseudo–first order law. The rate constant studies of photocatalytic decolourization reactions for Zn–TiO2 and Cu–TiO2 photocatalysts indicated that in all cases the rate constant of the reaction was higher than that of TiO2 undoped. These results show that nature of the metal modifying the TiO2 influence on the efficiency of the photocatalyst evaluated in process. Ni does not present an additional effect compared with TiO2, while Zn enhances the photoactivity due to its electronic properties.

Pseudo-Homogeneous Kinetic of Dilute-Acid Hydrolysis of Rice Huskfor Ethanol Production: Effect of Sugar Degradation

Rice husk is a lignocellulosic source that can be converted to ethanol. Three hundreds grams of rice husk was mixed with 1 L of 0.18 N sulfuric acid solutions then was heated in an autoclave. The reaction was expected to be at constant temperature (isothermal), but before that temperature was achieved, reaction has occurred. The first liquid sample was taken at temperature of 140 0C and repeated every 5 minute interval. So the data obtained are in the regions of non-isothermal and isothermal. It was observed that the degradation has significant effects on the ethanol production. The kinetic constants can be expressed by Arrhenius equation with the frequency factors for hydrolysis and sugar degradation of 1.58 x 105 min-1 and 2.29 x 108 L/mole-min, respectively, while the activation energies are 64,350 J/mole and 76,571 J/mole. The highest ethanol concentration from fermentation is 1.13% v/v, attained at 220 0C.

Carbonate Microfacies Analysis of Sinjar Formation from Qara Dagh Mountains, South–West of Sulaimani City, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

The paper describes the carbonate microfacies identified in the Sinjar Formation (Late Paleocene–Early Eocene) cropping out in Qara Dagh Mountain, near Sulekan Village approximately 20km south–west of Sulaimani (Iraq). One section (62m thick) has been measured in the field and closely sampled to undertake detailed microfaciesal and micropalaeontological studies to determine the formation-s age and environment of deposition. A samples were collected illustrating all the lithological changes along the section. The limestone in the studied area is hard and extremely rich in large foraminifers (soritids, rotaliids, nummulites, miliolids) and green algae (dasycladales). The investigation of the thin sections allowed us to identify the carbonate microfacies (18 types and subtypes) and the micropaleontological association (foraminifers and green algae), to determine the age of formation and to reconstruct the paleoenvironment of deposition (fore-reef, reef, back-reef). Based on the field observations and the studied thin sections, we determined three Units of a carbonate platform (I, II and III) from the base to the top of the section: Unit I with coralgal associations, Unit II is dominated by larger foraminifers and haracterized by the absence of coralgal associations, while Unit III is dominated by small foraminifers (mostly miliolids), peloids and green algae. It is partially dolomitized.

Intelligibility of Cued Speech in Video

This paper discusses the cued speech recognition methods in videoconference. Cued speech is a specific gesture language that is used for communication between deaf people. We define the criteria for sentence intelligibility according to answers of testing subjects (deaf people). In our tests we use 30 sample videos coded by H.264 codec with various bit-rates and various speed of cued speech. Additionally, we define the criteria for consonant sign recognizability in single-handed finger alphabet (dactyl) analogically to acoustics. We use another 12 sample videos coded by H.264 codec with various bit-rates in four different video formats. To interpret the results we apply the standard scale for subjective video quality evaluation and the percentual evaluation of intelligibility as in acoustics. From the results we construct the minimum coded bit-rate recommendations for every spatial resolution.

Influence of Silica Fume on the Properties of Self Compacting Concrete

A self-compacting concrete (SCC) is the one that can be placed in the form and can go through obstructions by its own weight and without the need of vibration. Since its first development in Japan in 1988, SCC has gained wider acceptance in Japan, Europe and USA due to its inherent distinct advantages. Although there are visible signs of its gradual acceptance in the North Africa through its limited use in construction, Libya has yet to explore the feasibility and applicability of SCC in new construction. The contributing factors to this reluctance appear to be lack of any supportive evidence of its suitability with local aggregates and the harsh environmental conditions. The primary aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of using SCC made with local aggregates of Eastern Province of Libya by examining its basic properties characteristics. This research consists of: (i) Development of a suitable mix for SCC such as the effect of water to cement ratio, limestone and silica fume that would satisfy the requirements of the plastic state; (ii) Casting of concrete samples and testing them for compressive strength and unit weight. Local aggregates, cement, admixtures and industrial waste materials were used in this research. The significance of this research lies in its attempt to provide some performance data of SCC made in the Eastern Province of Libya so as to draw attention to the possible use of SCC.

Enhancing Efficiency for Reducing Sugar from Cassava Bagasse by Pretreatment

Cassava bagasse is one of major biomass wastes in Thailand from starch processing industry, which contains high starch content of about 60%. The object of this study was to investigate the optimal condition for hydrothermally pretreating cassava baggasses with or without acid addition. The pretreated samples were measured reducing sugar yield directly or after enzymatic hydrolysis (alpha-amylase). In enzymatic hydrolysis, the highest reducing sugar content was obtained under hydrothermal conditions for at 125oC for 30 min. The result shows that pretreating cassava baggasses increased the efficiency of enzymatic hydrolysis. For acid hydrolysis, pretreating cassava baggasses with sulfuric acid at 120oC for 60 min gave a maximum reducing sugar yield. In this study, sulfuric acid had a greater capacity for hydrolyzing cassava baggasses than phosphoric acid. In comparison, dilute acid hydrolysis to provide a higher yield of reducing sugar than the enzymatic hydrolysis combined hydrothermal pretreatment. However, enzymatic hydrolysis in a combination with hydrothermal pretreatment was an alternative to enhance efficiency reducing sugar production from cassava bagasse.

Estimation of Bayesian Sample Size for Binomial Proportions Using Areas P-tolerance with Lowest Posterior Loss

This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

Comparative Analysis of Diversity and Similarity Indices with Special Relevance to Vegetations around Sewage Drains

Indices summarizing community structure are used to evaluate fundamental community ecology, species interaction, biogeographical factors, and environmental stress. Some of these indices are insensitive to gross community changes induced by contaminants of pollution. Diversity indices and similarity indices are reviewed considering their ecological application, both theoretical and practical. For some useful indices, empirical equations are given to calculate the expected maximum value of the indices to which the observed values can be related at any combination of sample sizes at the experimental sites. This paper examines the effects of sample size and diversity on the expected values of diversity indices and similarity indices, using various formulae. It has been shown that all indices are strongly affected by sample size and diversity. In some indices, this influence is greater than the others and an attempt has been made to deal with these influences.

Assessing Habitat-Suitability Models with a Virtual Species at Khao Nan National Park, Thailand

This study examined a habitat-suitability assessment method namely the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA). A virtual species was created and then dispatched in a geographic information system model of a real landscape in three historic scenarios: (1) spreading, (2) equilibrium, and (3) overabundance. In each scenario, the virtual species was sampled and these simulated data sets were used as inputs for the ENFA to reconstruct the habitat suitability model. The 'equilibrium' scenario gives the highest quantity and quality among three scenarios. ENFA was sensitive to the distribution scenarios but not sensitive to sample sizes. The use of a virtual species proved to be a very efficient method, allowing one to fully control the quality of the input data as well as to accurately evaluate the predictive power of the analyses.

Analysis of Noise Level Effects on Signal-Averaged Electrocardiograms

Noise level has critical effects on the diagnostic performance of signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG), because the true starting and end points of QRS complex would be masked by the residual noise and sensitive to the noise level. Several studies and commercial machines have used a fixed number of heart beats (typically between 200 to 600 beats) or set a predefined noise level (typically between 0.3 to 1.0 μV) in each X, Y and Z lead to perform SAECG analysis. However different criteria or methods used to perform SAECG would cause the discrepancies of the noise levels among study subjects. According to the recommendations of 1991 ESC, AHA and ACC Task Force Consensus Document for the use of SAECG, the determinations of onset and offset are related closely to the mean and standard deviation of noise sample. Hence this study would try to perform SAECG using consistent root-mean-square (RMS) noise levels among study subjects and analyze the noise level effects on SAECG. This study would also evaluate the differences between normal subjects and chronic renal failure (CRF) patients in the time-domain SAECG parameters. The study subjects were composed of 50 normal Taiwanese and 20 CRF patients. During the signal-averaged processing, different RMS noise levels were adjusted to evaluate their effects on three time domain parameters (1) filtered total QRS duration (fQRSD), (2) RMS voltage of the last QRS 40 ms (RMS40), and (3) duration of the low amplitude signals below 40 μV (LAS40). The study results demonstrated that the reduction of RMS noise level can increase fQRSD and LAS40 and decrease the RMS40, and can further increase the differences of fQRSD and RMS40 between normal subjects and CRF patients. The SAECG may also become abnormal due to the reduction of RMS noise level. In conclusion, it is essential to establish diagnostic criteria of SAECG using consistent RMS noise levels for the reduction of the noise level effects.

Prioritizing Service Quality Dimensions: A Neural Network Approach

One of the determinants of a firm-s prosperity is the customers- perceived service quality and satisfaction. While service quality is wide in scope, and consists of various dimensions, there may be differences in the relative importance of these dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction of service quality. Identifying the relative rank of different dimensions of service quality is very important in that it can help managers to find out which service dimensions have a greater effect on customers- overall satisfaction. Such an insight will consequently lead to more effective resource allocation which will finally end in higher levels of customer satisfaction. This issue – despite its criticality- has not received enough attention so far. Therefore, using a sample of 240 bank customers in Iran, an artificial neural network is developed to address this gap in the literature. As customers- evaluation of service quality is a subjective process, artificial neural networks –as a brain metaphor- may appear to have a potentiality to model such a complicated process. Proposing a neural network which is able to predict the customers- overall satisfaction of service quality with a promising level of accuracy is the first contribution of this study. In addition, prioritizing the service quality dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction –by using sensitivity analysis of neural network- is the second important finding of this paper.

Optimization of Heat Treatment Due to Austenising Temperature, Time and Quenching Solution in Hadfield Steels

Manganese steel (Hadfield) is one of the important alloys in industry due to its special properties. High work hardening ability with appropriate toughness and ductility are the properties that caused this alloy to be used in wear resistance parts and in high strength condition. Heat treatment is the main process through which the desired mechanical properties and microstructures are obtained in Hadfield steel. In this study various heat treatment cycles, differing in austenising temperature, time and quenching solution are applied. For this purpose, the same samples of manganese steel was heat treated in 9 different cycles, and then the mechanical properties and microstructures were investigated. Based on the results of the study, the optimum heat treatment cycle was obtained.

Breakdown of LDPE Film under Heavy Water Absorption

The breakdown strength characteristic of Low Density Polyethylene films (LDPE) under DC voltage application and the effect of water absorption have been studied. Mainly, our experiment was investigated under two conditions; dry and heavy water absorption. Under DC ramp voltage, the result found that the breakdown strength under heavy water absorption has a lower value than dry condition. In order to clarify the effect, the temperature rise of film was observed using non contact thermograph until the occurrence of the electrical breakdown and the conduction current of the sample was also measured in correlation with the thermograph measurement. From the observations, it was shown that under the heavy water absorption, the hot spot in the samples appeared at lower voltage. At the same voltage the temperature of the hot spot and conduction current was higher than that under the dry condition. The measurement result has a good correlation between the existence of a critical field for conduction current and thermograph observation. In case of the heavy water absorption, the occurrence of the threshold field was earlier than the dry condition as result lead to higher of conduction current and the temperature rise appears after threshold field was significantly increased in increasing of field. The higher temperature rise was caused by the higher current conduction as the result the insulation leads to breakdown to the lower field application.