Abstract: Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.
Abstract: The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.
Abstract: In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.
Abstract: Poor air quality is one of the main environmental causes of premature deaths worldwide, and mainly in cities, where the majority of the population lives. It is a consequence of successive land cover (LC) and use changes, as a result of the intensification of human activities. Knowing these landscape modifications in a comprehensive spatiotemporal dimension is, therefore, essential for understanding variations in air pollutant concentrations. In this sense, the use of air quality models is very useful to simulate the physical and chemical processes that affect the dispersion and reaction of chemical species into the atmosphere. However, the modelling performance should always be evaluated since the resolution of the input datasets largely dictates the reliability of the air quality outcomes. Among these data, the updated LC is an important parameter to be considered in atmospheric models, since it takes into account the Earth’s surface changes due to natural and anthropic actions, and regulates the exchanges of fluxes (emissions, heat, moisture, etc.) between the soil and the air. This work aims to evaluate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), when different LC classifications are used as an input. The influence of two LC classifications was tested: i) the 24-classes USGS (United States Geological Survey) LC database included by default in the model, and the ii) CLC (Corine Land Cover) and specific high-resolution LC data for Portugal, reclassified according to the new USGS nomenclature (33-classes). Two distinct WRF-Chem simulations were carried out to assess the influence of the LC on air quality over Europe and Portugal, as a case study, for the year 2015, using the nesting technique over three simulation domains (25 km2, 5 km2 and 1 km2 horizontal resolution). Based on the 33-classes LC approach, particular emphasis was attributed to Portugal, given the detail and higher LC spatial resolution (100 m x 100 m) than the CLC data (5000 m x 5000 m). As regards to the air quality, only the LC impacts on tropospheric ozone concentrations were evaluated, because ozone pollution episodes typically occur in Portugal, in particular during the spring/summer, and there are few research works relating to this pollutant with LC changes. The WRF-Chem results were validated by season and station typology using background measurements from the Portuguese air quality monitoring network. As expected, a better model performance was achieved in rural stations: moderate correlation (0.4 – 0.7), BIAS (10 – 21µg.m-3) and RMSE (20 – 30 µg.m-3), and where higher average ozone concentrations were estimated. Comparing both simulations, small differences grounded on the Leaf Area Index and air temperature values were found, although the high-resolution LC approach shows a slight enhancement in the model evaluation. This highlights the role of the LC on the exchange of atmospheric fluxes, and stresses the need to consider a high-resolution LC characterization combined with other detailed model inputs, such as the emission inventory, to improve air quality assessment.
Abstract: Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years
and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power
forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity
load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable
grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load
leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities
and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used
to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose
of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural
networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we
present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on
deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM)
algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn
representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information
for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been
used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting
wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information
represent the most important variables for the inputs within the
power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption
measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December
2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data
from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism.
Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep
neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish
electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing
layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation
(ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer
instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than
SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models
performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error)
and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of
432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting
performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results
compared to literature searches.
Abstract: Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.
Abstract: The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0) without constant and the forecasting equation is Yt = Yt-1 + 0.3691 (Yt-1 - Yt-2) When Yt is the time series data at time t, respectively.
Abstract: A method of effective planning and control of
industrial facility energy consumption is offered. The method allows
optimally arranging the management and full control of complex
production facilities in accordance with the criteria of minimal
technical and economic losses at the forecasting control. The method
is based on the optimal construction of the power efficiency
characteristics with the prescribed accuracy. The problem of optimal
designing of the forecasting model is solved on the basis of three
criteria: maximizing the weighted sum of the points of forecasting
with the prescribed accuracy; the solving of the problem by the
standard principles at the incomplete statistic data on the basis of
minimization of the regularized function; minimizing the technical
and economic losses due to the forecasting errors.
Abstract: Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) can be
considered among one of the most important service facilities in the
banking industry. The investment in ATMs and the impact on the
banking industry is growing steadily in every part of the world. The
banks take into consideration many factors like safety, convenience,
visibility, and cost in order to determine the optimum locations of
ATMs. Today, ATMs are not only available in bank branches but
also at retail locations. Another important factor is the cash
management in ATMs. A cash demand model for every ATM is
needed in order to have an efficient cash management system. This
forecasting model is based on historical cash demand data which is
highly related to the ATMs location. So, the location and the cash
management problem should be considered together. This paper
provides a general review on studies, efforts and development in
ATMs location and cash management problem.
Abstract: Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B
virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the
general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3
million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January
2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis
who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a
well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical
resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal
component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of
dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural
network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total
of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in
this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that
the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other
compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and
echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for
patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate
forecasting method for predicting the future values of the
unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so,
several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series
with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential
smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method
which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical
analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting
unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In
the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double
exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the
best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters`
multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model
to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing
model. Our findings are in line with European Commission
unemployment rate estimates.
Abstract: This research was conducted in the Mae Sot
Watershed where located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper
Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot
Municipality is the largest urban area in Tak Province and situated in
the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood
problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been
reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recent years. Its
catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall
data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached
by most severely flood events in 2013 as the worst studied case for
all those communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems
are also faced in this watershed, such shortage water supply for
domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including a
deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research
aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the
participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to
conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean
of the data collection and illustration of the appropriated application
of some short period rainfall forecasting model as they aim for better
flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model
system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to
apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV)
program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in a
short period of 7-10 days in advance during rainy season instead of
real time record. The IDV product can be present in an advance
period of rainfall with time step of 3-6 hours was introduced to the
communities. The result can be used as input data to the hydrologic
modeling system model (HEC-HMS) for synthesizing flood
hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors
applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood
flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown
of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as the water surface level at
every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and
RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow
data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the
observed data at the dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge
to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and
the result found satisfying. The product of rainfall from IDV was fair
while compared with observed data. However, it is an appropriate
tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph
and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and
management.
Abstract: A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.
Abstract: In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.
Abstract: The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead
VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004
and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC,
FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA
processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH,
EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are
estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting
accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more
volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model
estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with
higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage
test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary
result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a
GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found
in analyzed time series.
Abstract: Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.
Abstract: This paper mainly investigates the environmental and
economic impacts of worldwide use of electric vehicles. It can be
concluded that governments have good reason to promote the use of
electric vehicles. First, the global vehicles population is evaluated with
the help of grey forecasting model and the amount of oil saving is
estimated through approximate calculation. After that, based on the
game theory, the amount and types of electricity generation needed by
electronic vehicles are established. Finally, some conclusions on the
government-s attitudes are drawn.
Abstract: Spare parts inventory management is one of the major
areas of inventory research. Analysis of recent literature showed that
an approach integrating spare parts classification, demand
forecasting, and stock control policies is essential; however, adapting
this integrated approach is limited. This work presents an integrated
framework for spare part inventory management and an Excel based
application developed for the implementation of the proposed
framework. A multi-criteria analysis has been used for spare
classification. Forecasting of spare parts- intermittent demand has
been incorporated into the application using three different
forecasting models; namely, normal distribution, exponential
smoothing, and Croston method. The application is also capable of
running with different inventory control policies. To illustrate the
performance of the proposed framework and the developed
application; the framework is applied to different items at a service
organization. The results achieved are presented and possible areas
for future work are highlighted.
Abstract: One of the most important requirements for the
operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the
prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as
short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of
an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model.
The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one
day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with
using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of
curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering
weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature
and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of
holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network
forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models
are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical
max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the
system on data from Yazd utility are reported.
Abstract: The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series
exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD
during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance
of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as
Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings
suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the
Tala/USD and Tala/AUD.