Abstract: The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate
forecasting method for predicting the future values of the
unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so,
several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series
with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential
smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method
which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical
analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting
unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In
the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double
exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the
best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters`
multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model
to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing
model. Our findings are in line with European Commission
unemployment rate estimates.
Abstract: This paper examines economic and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development influence on recently increasing Internet purchases by individuals for European Union member states. After a growing trend for Internet purchases in EU27 was noticed, all possible regression analysis was applied using nine independent variables in 2011. Finally, two linear regression models were studied in detail. Conducted simple linear regression analysis confirmed the research hypothesis that the Internet purchases in analyzed EU countries is positively correlated with statistically significant variable Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc). Also, analyzed multiple linear regression model with four regressors, showing ICT development level, indicates that ICT development is crucial for explaining the Internet purchases by individuals, confirming the research hypothesis.