Abstract: This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary
bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order
one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The
BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning
operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the
two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on
these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments
of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial
stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of
the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML)
estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution
properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model
are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where
BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate
Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of
the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation
experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained
are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model
is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in
Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed
cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model
is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate
a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on
the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide
reliable one-step ahead forecasts.
Abstract: Residual stress and fatigue crack growth rates are important to determine mechanical behavior of rails. This study aims to make relationship between residual stress and fatigue crack growth values in rails. For this purpose, three R260 quality rails (0.6-0.8% C, 0.6-1.25 Mn) were chosen. Residual stress of samples was measured by cutting method that is related in railway standard. Then samples were machined for fatigue crack growth test and analyze was completed according to the ASTM E647 standard which gives information about parameters of rails for this test. Microstructure characterizations were examined by Light Optic Microscope (LOM). The results showed that residual stress change with fatigue crack growth rate. The sample has highest residual stress exhibits highest crack growth rate and pearlitic structure can be seen clearly for all samples by microstructure analyze.
Abstract: In this study, the effects of B4C and SiC particle reinforcements on wear properties of magnesium matrix metal composites produced by pressure infiltration method were investigated. AZ91 (9%Al-1%Zn) magnesium alloy was used as a matrix. AZ91 magnesium alloy was melted under an argon atmosphere. The melt was infiltrated to the particles with an appropriate pressure. Wear tests, hardness tests were performed respectively. Microstructure characterizations were examined by light optical (LOM) and scanning electron microscope (SEM). The results showed that uniform particle distributions were achieved in both B4C and SiC reinforced composites. Wear behaviors of magnesium matrix metal composites changed as a function of type of particles. SiC reinforced composite has better wear performance and higher hardness than B4C reinforced composite.
Abstract: This study aimed for improving wear resistance of AM60 magnesium alloy by Ti addition (0, 0.2, 0.5, 1wt%Ti). An electric resistance furnace was used to produce alloys. Pure Mg together with Al, Al-Ti and Al-Mn were melted at 750 0C in a stainless steel crucible under controlled Ar gas atmosphere and then poured into a metal mould preheated at 250 0C. Microstructure characterizations were performed by light optical (LOM) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) after the wear test. Wear rates and friction coefficients were measured with a pin-on-disk type UTS-10 Tribometer test device under a load of 20N. The results showed that Ti addition altered the morphology and the amount of b-Mg17Al12 phase in the microstructure of AM60 alloy. b-Mg17Al12 phases on the grain boundaries were refined with increasing amount of Ti. An improvement in wear resistance of AM60 alloy was observed due to the alteration in the microstructure by Ti addition.