Abstract: Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.
Abstract: Zhejiang’s special geographical environment has created characteristic mountain dwellings with climate adaptability. Among them, the terrain of southern Zhejiang is dominated by mountainous and hilly landforms, and its traditional dwellings have distinctive characteristics. They are often adapted to local conditions and laid out in accordance with the mountains. In order to block the severe winter weather conditions, local traditional building materials such as rammed earth are mostly used. However, with the development of urbanization, traditional villages have undergone large-scale changes, gradually losing their original uniqueness. In order to solve this problem, this paper takes traditional villages around Baishanzu National Park in Zhejiang as an example and selects nine typical villages in Jingning County and Longquan, respectively. Based on field investigations, this paper extracts the environmental adaptability of local traditional rammed earth houses from the perspective of “geographical embeddedness”. And then combined with case analysis, the paper discusses the translation and development of its traditional architectural methods in contemporary rammed earth buildings in southern Zhejiang.
Abstract: Cereals are considered as a strategic product in human life and their demand is increasing with the growth of world population. Increasing wheat production is important for the country. One of the ways to solve the problem is to develop and implement new, environmentally and economically acceptable technologies. Such technologies include pre-sowing treatment of seed with a laser and associative nitrogen-fixing bacteria - Azospirillum brasilense. In the region there are the wheat varieties - Dika and Lomtagora, which are among the most common in Georgia. Dika is a frost-resistant wheat, with a high ability to adapt to the environment, resistant to falling and it is sown in highlands. Lomtagora 126 differs with its winter and drought resistance, and it has a great ability to germinate. Lomtagora is characterized by a strong root system and a high budding capacity. It is an early variety, fall-resistant, easy to thresh and suitable for mechanized harvesting with large and red grains. This paper presents some preliminary experimental results where a continuous CO2 laser with a power of 25-40 W was used to radiate grains at a flow rate of 10 and 15 cm/sec. The treatment was carried out on grains of the Triticum aestivum L. var. Lutescens (local variety name - Lomtagora 126), and Triticum carthlicum Nevski (local variety name - Dika). Here the grains were treated with A. brasilense isolate (108-109 CFU/ml), which was isolated from the rhizosphere of wheat. It was observed that the germination of the wheat was not significantly influenced by either laser or bacteria treatment. The results of our research show that combined treatment with laser and A. brasilense significantly influenced the germination of wheat. In the case of the Lomtagora 126 variety, grains were exposed to the beam on a speed of 10 cm/sec, only slightly improved the growth for 38-day seedlings, in case of exposition of grains with a speed of 15 cm/sec - by 23%. Treatment of seeds with A. brasilense in both exposed and non-exposed variants led to an improvement in the growth of seedlings, with A. brasilense alone - by 22%, and with combined treatment of grains - by 29%. In the case of the Dika variety, only exposure led to growth by 8-9%, and the combined treatment - by 10-15%, in comparison with the control variant. Superior effect on growth of seedlings of different varieties was achieved with the combinations of laser treatment on grains in a beam of 15 cm/sec (radiation power 30-40 W) and in addition of A. brasilense - nitrogen fixing bacteria. Therefore, this is a promising application of A. brasilense as active agents of bacterial fertilizers due to their ability of molecular nitrogen fixation in cereals in combination with laser irradiation: choosing a proper strain gives a good ability to colonize roots of agricultural crops, providing a high nitrogen-fixing ability and the ability to mobilize soil phosphorus, and laser treatment stimulates natural processes occurring in plant cells, will increase the yield.
Abstract: Following previous studies about Writing and Seeing, this paper focuses on the aesthetic assumptions within the concept of Winter Journey (Voyage d’Hiver/Winterreise) both in Georges Perec’s Saga and the Oulipo Group vis-à-vis with the creations by William Kentridge and Michael Borremans. The aesthetic and artistic connections are widespread. Nevertheless, we can identify common poetical principles shared by these different authors, not only according to the notion of ekphrasis, but also following the procedures of contemporary creation in literature and visual arts. The analysis of the ongoing process of the French writers as individuals and as group and the visual artists’ acting might contribute for another crossed definition of contemporary conception. The same title/theme was a challenge and a goal for them. Let’s wonder how deep the concept encouraged them and which symbolic upbringings were directing their poetical achievements. The idea of an inner journey became the main point, and got “over” and “across” a shared path worth to be followed. The authors were chosen due to the resilient contents of their visual and written images, and looking for the reasons that might had driven their conceptual basis to be. In Pérec’s “Winter Journey” as for the following fictions by Jacques Roubaud, Hervé le Tellier, Jacques Jouet and Hugo Vernier (that emerges from Perec’s fiction and becomes a real author) powerful aesthetic and enigmatic reflections grow connected with a poetic (and aesthetic) understanding of Walkscapes. They might be assumed as ironic fictions and poetical drifts. Outstanding from different logics, the overwhelming impact of Winterreise Lied by Schubert after Wilhelm Müller’s poems is a major reference in present authorship creations. Both Perec and Oulipo’s author’s texts are powerfully ekphrastic, although we should not forget they follow goals, frameworks and identities. When acting as a reader, they induce powerful imageries - cinematic or cinematographic - that flow in our minds. It was well-matched with William Kentridge animated video Winter Journey (2014) and the creations (sharing the same title) of Michael Borremans (2014) for the KlaraFestival, Bozar, Cité de la musique, in Belgium. Both were taken by the foremost Schubert’s Winterreise. Several metaphors fulfil new Winter Journeys (or Travels) that were achieved in contemporary art and literature, as it once succeeded in the 19th century. Maybe the contemporary authors and artists were compelled by the consciousness of nothingness, although outstanding different aesthetics and ontological sources. The unbearable knowledge of the road’s end, and also the urge of fulfilling the void might be a common element to all of them. As Schopenhauer once wrote, after all, Art is the only human subjective power that we can call upon in life. These newer aesthetic meanings, released from these winter journeys are surely open to wider approaches that might happen in other poetic makings to be.
Abstract: Greenhouse cultivation is an energy-intensive process due to the high demands on cooling or heating according to external climatic conditions, which could be extreme in the summer or winter seasons. The thermal radiation rate inside a greenhouse depends mainly on the type of covering material and greenhouse construction. Using additional thermal screens under a greenhouse covering combined with a dehumidification system improves the insulation and could be cost-effective. Greenhouse covering material usually contains protective ultraviolet (UV) radiation additives to prevent the film wear, insect harm, and crop diseases. This paper investigates the overall heat transfer coefficient, or U-value, for greenhouse polyethylene covering contains UV-additives and glass covering with or without a thermal screen supplement. The hot-box method was employed to evaluate overall heat transfer coefficients experimentally as a function of the type and number of the thermal screens. The results show that the overall heat transfer coefficient decreases with increasing the number of thermal screens as a hyperbolic function. The overall heat transfer coefficient highly depends on the ability of the material to reflect thermal radiation. Using a greenhouse covering, i.e., polyethylene films or glass, in combination with high reflective thermal screens, i.e., containing about 98% of aluminum stripes or aluminum foil, the U-value reduces by 61%-89% in the first case, whereas by 70%-92% in the second case, depending on the number of the thermal screen. Using thermal screens made from low reflective materials may reduce the U-value by 30%-57%. The heat transfer coefficient is an indicator of the thermal insulation properties of the materials, which allows farmers to make decisions on the use of appropriate thermal screens depending on the external and internal climate conditions in a greenhouse.
Abstract: The Japan Sports Agency has made efforts to unify several career support programs for Olympic athletes prior to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. One of the programs, the Japan Olympic Committee Career Academy (JCA) was established in 2008 for Olympic athletes at their retirement. Research focusing on the service content of sport career support programs can help athletes experience a more positive transition. This study was designed to investigate the service content of the JCA program in relation to athletes’ career transition needs, including any differences of the reasons for retirement between Summer/Winter and Male/Female Olympic athletes, and to suggest the directions of how to unify the career support programs in Japan after hosting the Olympic Games using sport career transition models. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed the JCA director who started and managed the program since its inception, and a total of 15 conceptual categories were generated by the analysis. Four conceptual categories were in the result of “JCA situation”, 4 conceptual categories were in the result of “Athletes using JCA”, and 7 conceptual categories were in the result of “JCA current difficulties”. Through the analysis it was revealed that: the JCA had occupational supports for both current and retired Olympic athletes; other supports such as psychological support were unclear due to the lack of psychological professionals in JCA and the difficulties collaborating with other sports organizations; and there are differences in tendencies of visiting JCA, financial situations, and career choices depending on Summer/Winter and Male/Female athletes.
Abstract: In this paper, natural convection in an attic is numerically investigated. The geometry of the problem is considered to be a triangular enclosure. ANSYS Fluent software is used for modeling and numerical solution. This study is for steady state. Four right-angled triangles with height to base ratios of 2, 1, 0.5 and 0.25 are considered. The behavior of various parameters related to its performance, including temperature distribution and velocity vectors are evaluated, and graphs for the Nusselt number have been drawn. Also, in this study, the effect of geometric shape of enclosure with different height-to-base ratios has been evaluated for three types of boundary conditions of winter, summer day and one another state. It can be concluded that as the bottom side temperature and ratio of base to height of the enclosure increases, the convective effects become more prominent and circulation happened.
Abstract: Improving the performance of Winter Road Maintenance (WRM) can increase the traffic safety and reduce the cost as well as environmental impacts. This study evaluates the efficiency of WRM technique, named salting, in the Arctic area by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric linear method to measure the efficiencies of decision-making units (DMUs) based on handling multiple inputs and multiple outputs at the same time that their associated weights are not known. Here, roads are considered as DMUs for which the efficiency must be determined. The three input variables considered are traffic flow, road area and WRM cost. In addition, the two output variables included are level of safety in the roads and environment impacts resulted from WRM, which is also considered as an uncontrollable factor in the second scenario. The results show the performance of DMUs from the most efficient WRM to the inefficient/least efficient one and this information provides decision makers with technical support and the required suggested improvements for inefficient WRM, in order to achieve a cost-effective WRM and a safe road transportation during wintertime in the Arctic areas.
Abstract: Data assets protection is a crucial issue in the
cybersecurity field. Companies use logical access control tools to
vault their information assets and protect them against external
threats, but they lack solutions to counter insider threats. Nowadays,
insider threats are the most significant concern of security analysts.
They are mainly individuals with legitimate access to companies
information systems, which use their rights with malicious intents.
In several fields, behavior anomaly detection is the method used by
cyber specialists to counter the threats of user malicious activities
effectively. In this paper, we present the step toward the construction
of a user and entity behavior analysis framework by proposing a
behavior anomaly detection model. This model combines machine
learning classification techniques and graph-based methods, relying
on linear algebra and parallel computing techniques. We show the
utility of an ensemble learning approach in this context. We present
some detection methods tests results on an representative access
control dataset. The use of some explored classifiers gives results
up to 99% of accuracy.
Abstract: This paper presents the energy and exergy optimization of a real gas turbine power plant performance of 100 MW of power, installed in the South East of Tunisia. A simulation code is established using the EES (Engineering Equation Solver) software. The parameters considered are those of the actual operating conditions of the gas turbine thermal power station under study. The results show that thermal and exergetic efficiency decreases with the increase of the ambient temperature. Air excess has an important effect on the thermal efficiency. The emission of NOx rises in the summer and decreases in the winter. The obtained rates of NOx are compared with measurements results.
Abstract: In the past decade, with the rapid development of China's economy, the purchasing power and physical demand of residents have been improved, which results in the vast emergence of public buildings like large shopping malls. However, the architects usually focus on the internal functions and streamlines of these buildings, ignoring the impact of the environment on the subjective feelings of building users. Only in Zhejiang province, the infiltration of cold air in winter frequently occurs at the entrance of sizeable commercial complex buildings that have been in operation, which will affect the environmental comfort of the building lobby and internal public spaces. At present, to reduce these adverse effects, it is usually adopted to add active equipment, such as setting air curtains to block air exchange or adding heating air conditioners. From the perspective of energy consumption, the infiltration of cold air into the entrance will increase the heat consumption of indoor heating equipment, which will indirectly cause considerable economic losses during the whole winter heating stage. Therefore, it is of considerable significance to explore the suitable entrance forms for improving the environmental comfort of commercial buildings and saving energy. In this paper, a commercial complex with apparent cold air infiltration problem in Hangzhou is selected as the research object to establish a model. The environmental parameters of the building entrance, including temperature, wind speed, and infiltration air volume, are obtained by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation, from which the heat consumption caused by the natural air infiltration in the winter and its potential economic loss is estimated as the objective metric. This study finally obtains the optimization direction of the building entrance form of the commercial complex by comparing the simulation results of other local commercial complex projects with different entrance forms. The conclusions will guide the entrance design of the same type of commercial complex in this area.
Abstract: This study presents the use of daylight in the case study of the Reid building at the Glasgow School of Art in the city of Glasgow, UK. In Nordic countries, daylight is one of the main considerations within building design, especially in the face of long, lightless winters. A shortage of daylight, contributing to dark and gloomy conditions, necessitates that designs incorporate strong daylight performance. As such, the building in question is designed to capture natural light for varying needs, where studios are located on the North and South façades. The study’s approach presents an analysis of different façade scenarios, where daylight from the North is observed, analyzed and compared with the daylight from the South façade for various design studios in the building. The findings then are correlated with the results of daylight levels from the daylight simulation program (Autodesk Ecotect Analysis) for the investigated studios. The study finds there to be a dramatic difference in daylight nature and levels between the North and South façades, where orientation, obstructions and designed façade fenestrations have major effects on the findings. The study concludes that some of the studios positioned on the North façade do not have a desirable quality of diffused northern light, due to the outside building’s obstructions, area and volume of the studio and the shadow effect of the designed mezzanine floor in the studios.
Abstract: In 2013/2014 and 2014/2015, a field experiment was conducted in two locations: Osiny and Wielichowo (Poland). The two-factor experiment was based on the method of randomized subblocks, in three replications. The first factor (A) was dose of nitrogen fertilization (two levels). The second factor (B) was nine winter wheat cultivars. It was found that winter wheat cultivars exhibited different reactions to higher nitrogen fertilization depending on the years and localities. Only KWS Dacanto cultivar under all growing conditions showed a significant increase in grain yield after the application of a higher level of nitrogen fertilization. The increase in nitrogen fertilization influenced the increase in gluten proteins content in wheat grain, but these changes were statistically significant only in the first year of the study. The quality of gluten does not depend on nitrogen fertilization. The quality of wheat grain depends on cultivars.
Abstract: The grain quality is a decisive factor in its use. In Poland, spring wheat is characterized by more favorable quality parameters in relation to the winter form of this species. In the present study, the effects of three different sowing dates (autumn, delayed autumn, and spring) and cultivar (Tybalt, Cytra, Bombona, Monsun, and Parabola) on the selected technological value parameters of spring wheat over three years were studied. The field trials were carried out in two locations (Bezek, Czesławice) in the Lubelskie Vivodeship, Poland. It was found that the falling number of spring wheat grains from autumn sowing dates was at a similar level to wheat sown in spring. The amount of wet gluten in the grain was variable in years, and its quality was better in wheat sown in spring. Sedimentation index was dependent upon on the cultivar.
Abstract: As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.
Abstract: Occupational health hazard is a very common term in every emerging country. Along with the unorganized sector, most organized sectors including government industries are suffering from this affliction. In addition to workload, the seasonal changes also have some impacts on working environment. With this focus in mind, one hundred male industrial workers, who are directly involved to the task of Periodic Overhauling (POH) in a fabricating workshop in the public domain are selected for this research work. They have been studied during work periods throughout different seasons in a year. For each and every season, the participants working heart rate (WHR) is measured and compared with the standards given by different national and internationally recognized agencies i.e., World Health Organization (WHO) and American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) etc. The different environmental parameters i.e. dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), globe temperature (GT), natural wet bulb temperature (NWB), relative humidity (RH), wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), air velocity (AV), effective temperature (ET) are recorded throughout the seasons to critically observe the effect of seasonal changes on the WHR of the workers. The effect of changes in environment to the WHR of the workers is very much surprising. It is found that the percentages of workers who belong to the ‘very heavy’ workload category are 83.33%, 66.66% and 16.66% in the summer, rainy and winter seasons, respectively. Ongoing undertaking of this type of job profile forces the worker towards occupational disorders causing absenteeism. This occurrence results in lower production rates, and on the other hand, costs due to medical claims also weaken the industry’s economic condition. In this circumstance, the authors are trying to focus on some remedial measures from the ergonomic angle by proposing a new work/ rest regimen and introducing engineering controls along with management controls which may help the worker, and consequently, the management also.
Abstract: European eels (Anguilla anguilla) belong to Anguilliformes order and Anguillidae family. They are generally classified as warm-water fish. Eels have a great commercial value in Europe and Asian countries. Eels can reach high weights, although their commercial size is relatively low in some countries. The capture of larger eels would facilitate the recovery of the species, as well as having a greater number of either glass eels or elvers for aquaculture. In the last years, the demand and the price of eels have increased significantly. However, European eel is considered critically endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. The biochemical composition of fishes is an important aspect of quality and affects the nutritional value and consumption quality of fish. In addition, knowing this composition can help predict an individual’s condition for their recovery. Fish is known to be important source of protein rich in essential amino acids. However, there is very little information about changes in amino acids composition of European eels with increase in size. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of two different weight categories on the amino acids content in muscle tissue of wild European eels. European eels were caught in River Ulla (Galicia, NW Spain), during winter. The eels were slaughtered in ice water immersion. Then, they were purchased and transferred to the laboratory. The eels were subdivided into two groups, according to the weight. The samples were kept frozen (-20 °C) until their analysis. Frozen eels were defrosted and the white muscle between the head and the anal hole. was extracted, in order to obtain amino acids composition. Thirty eels for each group were used. Liquid chromatography was used for separation and quantification of amino a cids. The results conclude that the eels are rich in glutamic acid, leucine, lysine, threonine, valine, isoleucine and phenylalanine. The analysis showed that there are significant differences (p < 0.05) among the eels with different sizes. Histidine, threonine, lysine, hydroxyproline, serine, glycine, arginine, alanine and proline were higher in small eels. European eels muscle presents between 45 and 46% of essential amino acids in the total amino acids. European eels have a well-balanced and high quality protein source in the respect of E/NE ratio. However, eels with higher weight showed a better ratio of essential and non-essential amino acid.
Abstract: Snow depth estimation and monitoring studies have been carried out for decades using empirical relationship or extrapolation of point measurements carried out in field. With the development of advanced satellite based remote sensing techniques, a modified approach is proposed in the present study to estimate the winter accumulated snow depth at basin scale. Assessment of snow depth by differencing Digital Elevation Model (DEM) generated at the beginning and end of winter season can be experimented for the region of interest (Himalayan and polar regions) accounting for winter accumulation (solid precipitation). The proposed approach is based on existing geodetic method that is being used for glacier mass balance estimation. Considering the satellite datasets purely acquired during beginning and end of winter season, it is possible to estimate the change in depth or thickness for the snow that is accumulated during the winter as it takes one year for the snow to get transformed into firn (snow that has survived one summer or one-year old snow).
Abstract: The study deals with an investigation into the impact of the relocation of tannery industry on water quality parameters of Buriganga. For this purpose, previous records have been collected from authentic data resources and for the attainment of present values, several samples were collected from three major locations of the Buriganga River during summer and winter seasons in 2018 to determine the distribution and variation of water quality parameters. Samples were collected six ft below the river water surface. Analysis indicates slightly acidic to slightly alkaline (6.8-7.49) in nature. Bio-Chemical Oxygen Demand, Total Dissolved Solids, Total Solids (TS) & Total Suspended Solids (TSS) have been found greater in summer. On the other hand, Dissolved Oxygen is found greater in rainy seasons. Relocation shows improvement in water quality parameters. Though the improvement related to relocation of tannery industry is not adequate to turn the water body to be an inhabitable place for aquatic lives.
Abstract: In order to improve intellectual concentration, few
studies have verified the effect of indoor airflow among the thermal
environment conditions, and the differences of the season in effects
have not been studied. In this study, in order to investigate the
influence of the airflow in winter on the intellectual concentration,
an evaluation experiment was conducted. In the previous study, an
effective airflow in summer was proposed and the improvement of
intellectual concentration by evaluation experiment was confirmed.
Therefore, an airflow profile in winter was proposed with reference
to the airflow profile in summer. The airflows are a combination
of a simulative airflow and mild airflow. An experiment has been
conducted to investigate the influence of a room airflow in winter on
intellectual concentration. As a result of comparison with no airflow
condition, no significant difference was found. Based on the results,
it is a future task to ask preliminary preference in advance and
to establish a mechanism that can provide controllable airflow for
each individual, taking into account the preference for airflow to be
different for each individual.