Abstract: Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.
Abstract: The problem of controlling a two link robotic manipulator, consisting of a rotating and a prismatic links, is addressed. The actuations of both links are assumed to have unknown dead zone nonlinearities and friction torques modeled by LuGre friction model. Because of the existence of the unknown dead zone and friction torque at the actuations, unknown parameters and unmeasured states would appear to be part of the overall system dynamics that need for estimation. Unmeasured states observer, unknown parameters estimators, and robust adaptive control laws have been derived such that closed loop global stability is achieved. Simulation results have been performed to show the efficacy of the suggested approach.
Abstract: Low frequency power oscillations may be triggered
by many events in the system. Most oscillations are damped by the
system, but undamped oscillations can lead to system collapse.
Oscillations develop as a result of rotor acceleration/deceleration
following a change in active power transfer from a generator. Like
the operations limits, the monitoring of power system oscillating
modes is a relevant aspect of power system operation and control.
Unprevented low-frequency power swings can be cause of cascading
outages that can rapidly extend effect on wide region. On this regard,
a Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control Systems
(WAMPCS) help in detecting such phenomena and assess power
system dynamics security. The monitoring of power system
electromechanical oscillations is very important in the frame of
modern power system management and control. In first part, this
paper compares the different technique for identification of power
system oscillations. Second part analyzes possible identification
some power system dynamics behaviors Using Wide Area
Monitoring Systems (WAMS) based on Phasor Measurement Units
(PMUs) and wavelet technique.
Abstract: Rainfall records of rainfall station including the
rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are
explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula
is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood
detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood
detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control
theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research.
When rainfall frequency of one hour rainfall duration is more than
100-year frequency which exceeds the flood detention standard of
20-year frequency for the flood detention pond, the flood peak
duration of flood detention pond is 1.7 hours at most even though the
flood detention pond with maximum drainage potential about 15.0
m3/s of pumping system is constructed. If the rainfall peak current is
more than maximum drainage potential, the flood peak duration of
flood detention pond is about 1.9 hours at most. The flood detention
pond is the key factor of stable drainage control and flood prevention.
The critical factors of flood disaster is not only rainfall mass, but also
rainfall frequency of heavy storm in different rainfall duration and
flood detention frequency of flood detention system.
Abstract: The two cart inverted pendulum system is a good
bench mark for testing the performance of system dynamics and
control engineering principles. Devasia introduced this system to
study the asymptotic tracking problem for nonlinear systems. In this
paper the problem of asymptotic tracking of the two-cart with an
inverted-pendulum system to a sinusoidal reference inputs via
introducing a novel method for solving finite-horizon nonlinear
optimal control problems is presented. In this method, an iterative
method applied to state dependent Riccati equation (SDRE) to obtain
a reliable algorithm. The superiority of this technique has been shown
by simulation and comparison with the nonlinear approach.
Abstract: Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous
cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education
on the prevention of the desease through various means has been
carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate
Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other
means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak
period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors
contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation
model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a
simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue
outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was
developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are
rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph
showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these
two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model
will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its
accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue
outbreak.
Abstract: Lack of resources for road infrastructure financing is a
problem that currently affects not only eastern European economies
but also many other countries especially in relation to the impact of
global financial crisis. In this context, we are talking about the socalled
short-investment problem as a result of long-term lack of
investment resources. Based on an analysis of road infrastructure
financing in the Czech Republic this article points out at weaknesses
of current system and proposes a long-term planning methodology
supported by system approach. Within this methodology and using
created system dynamic model the article predicts the development of
short-investment problem in the Country and in reaction on the
downward trend of certain sources the article presents various
scenarios resulting from the change of the structure of financial
sources. In the discussion the article focuses more closely on the
possibility of introduction of tax on vehicles instead of taxes with
declining revenue streams and estimates its approximate price in
relation to reaching various solutions of short-investment in time.
Abstract: This paper presents a computer simulation model based on system dynamics methodology for analyzing the dynamic characteristics of input energy structure in agriculture and Bangladesh is used here as a case study for model validation. The model provides an input energy structure linking the major energy flows with human energy and draft energy from cattle as well as tractors and/or power tillers, irrigation, chemical fertilizer and pesticide. The evaluation is made in terms of different energy dependent indicators. During the simulation period, the energy input to agriculture increased from 6.1 to 19.15 GJ/ha i.e. 2.14 fold corresponding to energy output in terms of food, fodder and fuel increase from 71.55 to 163.58 GJ/ha i.e. 1.28 fold from the base year. This result indicates that the energy input in Bangladeshi agricultural production is increasing faster than the energy output. Problems such as global warming, nutrient loading and pesticide pollution can associate with this increasing input. For an assessment, a comparative statement of input energy use in agriculture of developed countries (DCs) and least developed countries (LDCs) including Bangladesh has been made. The performance of the model is found satisfactory to analyze the agricultural energy system for LDCs
Abstract: Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified
as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in
Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in
Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and
demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session
with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension
expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between
these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System
Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how
demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by
using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension
expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of
pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and
policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.
Abstract: Along with forward supply chain organization needs
to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic
advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we
develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply
chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating
product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery
options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with
acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using
possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order
variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip
effects of different logistics participants over time between the
traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain.
Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce
order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally,
sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various
parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.
Abstract: This paper presents a new approach for setting
frequency relays based on the dynamic of power system. A
simplified model of the power system based on the load-frequency
control loop will be developed to be used instead of the complete
model of the power system. The effects of the equipments and their
responses on the frequency variations of the power plant will be
investigated and then a method for adaptive settings of frequency
relays will be explained. The proposed method will be investigated
by analyzing a simplified model of a power plant by MATLAB
software.
Abstract: Technology or lack of it will play an important role in Africa-s effort to achieve inclusive development. Although a key determinant of competitiveness, new technology can exacerbate exclusion of the majority from the mainstream economic activities. To minimise potential technology exclusion while leveraging its critical role in African-s development, requires insight into technology diffusion process. Using system dynamics approach, a technology diffusion model is presented. The frequency of interaction of people exposed to and those not exposed to technology, and the technology adoption rate - the fraction of people who embrace new technologies once they are exposed, are identified as the broad factors critical to technology diffusion to wider society enabling more people to be part of the economic growth process. Based on simulation results, it is recommends that these two broad factors should form part of national policy aimed at achieving inclusive and sustainable development in Africa.
Abstract: This paper presents the determination of the proper
quality costs parameters which provide the optimum return. The
system dynamics simulation was applied. The simulation model was
constructed by the real data from a case of the electronic devices
manufacturer in Thailand. The Steepest Descent algorithm was
employed to optimise. The experimental results show that the
company should spend on prevention and appraisal activities for 850
and 10 Baht/day respectively. It provides minimum cumulative total
quality cost, which is 258,000 Baht in twelve months. The effect of
the step size in the stage of improving the variables to the optimum
was also investigated. It can be stated that the smaller step size
provided a better result with more experimental runs. However, the
different yield in this case is not significant in practice. Therefore, the
greater step size is recommended because the region of optima could
be reached more easily and rapidly.
Abstract: The ubiquitous payment problems within construction
industry of China are notoriously hard to be resolved, thus lead to a
series of impacts to the industry chain. Among of them, the most direct
result is affecting the normal operation of contractors negatively. A
wealth of research has already discussed reasons of the payment
problems by introducing a number of possible improvement strategies.
But the causalities of these problems are still far from harsh reality. In
this paper, the authors propose a model for cash flow system of
construction projects by introducing System Dynamics techniques to
explore causal facets of the payment problem. The effects of payment
arrears on both cash flow and profitability of project are simulated into
four scenarios by using data from real projects. Simulating results
show visible clues to help contractors quantitatively determining the
consequences for the construction project that arise from payment
delay.
Abstract: In this study, a robust intelligent backstepping tracking control (RIBTC) system combined with adaptive output recurrent cerebellar model articulation control (AORCMAC) and H∞ control technique is proposed for wheeled inverted pendulums (WIPs) real-time control with exact system dynamics unknown. Moreover, a robust H∞ controller is designed to attenuate the effect of the residual approximation errors and external disturbances with desired attenuation level. The experimental results indicate that the WIPs can stand upright stably when using the proposed RIBTC.
Abstract: Nowadays, offshore's complicated facilities need their
own communications requirements. Nevertheless, developing and
real-world applications of new communications technology are faced
with tremendous problems for new technology users, developers and
implementers. Traditional systems engineering cannot be capable to
develop a new technology effectively because it does not consider
the dynamics of the process. This paper focuses on the design of a
holistic model that represents the dynamics of new communication
technology development within offshore industry. The model shows
the behavior of technology development efforts. Furthermore,
implementing this model, results in new and useful insights about the
policy option analysis for developing a new communications
technology in offshore industry.
Abstract: Planning the transition period for the adoption of
alternative fuel-technology powertrains is a challenging task that
requires sophisticated analysis tools. In this study, a system dynamic
approach was applied to analyze the bi-directional interaction
between the development of the refueling station network and vehicle
sales. Besides, the developed model was used to estimate the
transition cost to reach a predefined target (share of alternative fuel
vehicles) in different scenarios. Several scenarios have been analyzed
to investigate the effectiveness and cost of incentives on the initial
price of vehicles, and on the evolution of fuel and refueling stations.
Obtained results show that a combined set of incentives will be more
effective than just a single specific type of incentives.