A New Approach to Design Policies for the Adoption of Alternative Fuel-Technology Powertrains
Planning the transition period for the adoption of
alternative fuel-technology powertrains is a challenging task that
requires sophisticated analysis tools. In this study, a system dynamic
approach was applied to analyze the bi-directional interaction
between the development of the refueling station network and vehicle
sales. Besides, the developed model was used to estimate the
transition cost to reach a predefined target (share of alternative fuel
vehicles) in different scenarios. Several scenarios have been analyzed
to investigate the effectiveness and cost of incentives on the initial
price of vehicles, and on the evolution of fuel and refueling stations.
Obtained results show that a combined set of incentives will be more
effective than just a single specific type of incentives.
[1] O. Melendez, M., NREL/TP-540-39423 -- Transitioning to a Hydrogen
Future: Learning from the Alternative Fuels Experience. 2006.
[2] Energy Policy Act of 1992. 1992, P. Law 102-486.
[3] Welch C., Lessons Learned from Alternative Transportation Fuels:
Modeling Transition Dynamics, Technical Report NREL/TP-540-39446;
February 2006.
[4] Greene, D., et al., Hydrogen Transition Modeling and Analysis
:HYTRANS v.1.0, in DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure
Technologies Program Review. 2004.
[5] Greene, D. ORNL/TM-2001/134: TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles
Choice Model Documentation. 2001 July;
[6] Leiby P., Rubin J., The Alternative Fuel Transition: Results from the
TAFV Model of Alternative Fuel Use in Light-Duty Vehicles 1996 -
2010, ORNL/TM2000/168, September 17, 2000.
[7] Conzelmann, G. Hydrogen Transition Modeling Using Complex
Adaptive Systems Approach, 2004.
[8] Mintz, M. and G. Conzelmann, Phone conversation regarding the scope
of RCF and ANL's Complex Adaptive System model, 2005.
[9] Pellon M. B., Grover D. K., Eppstein M. J., Rizzo D. M., Besaw L. E.,
Marshall J. S., An agent-based model for estimating consumer adoption
of PHEV technology, TRB 2010 Annual Meeting.
[10] Struben, J., Technology Transitions: identifying challenges for hydrogen
fuel cell vehicles, in System Dynamics Conference. 2004: Oxford,
England.
[11] Ramjerdi F., and Brundell-FreijK., WSP, The dynamics of the market
for alternative fuel vehicles: The Swedish case study, 1st Transatlantic
NECTAR Conference, The School of Public Policy George Mason
University, USA, 2009.
[12] Estatística do Sector Automóvel, ACAP - Associação Automóvel de
Portugal, edition of 2010.
[13] Direcção Geral de Energia e Geologia, Price of liquid fuels in Portugal,
1960-2003, available at http://www.dgge.pt/
[14] Vensim®, User-s Guide, Version 5- Revision 2; 2005.
[15] Grahn M., Williander M., (2009) The role of ICEVs, HEVs, PHEVs,
BEVs and FCVs in achieving stringent CO2 targets: results from global
energy systems modeling, Stavanger, Norway.
[16] Bandivadekar A., Bodek K., Cheah L., Evans C., Groode T., Heywood
J., Kasseris E., Kromer M., Weiss M., (2008) On the Road in 2035:
Reducing Transportation-s Petroleum Consumption and GHG
Emissions, Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, Report No.
LFEE 2008-05 RP.
[17] Johnson, C., E85 Business Case: When and Why to Sell E85, NREL/PR-
540-42239, 2007.
[18] Kromer M.A. and John B. Heywood, (2007) Electric Powertrains:
Opportunities and Challenges in the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet,
LFEE 2007-03 RP.
[19] Reynolds B. "Ethanol-s Potential Contribution to the U.S.
Transportation Fuel Pool", prepared for DOE, December 2006.
[20] Silva C. Santos, Designing Electric Vehicles charging networks,
Workshop on Green Islands Project, MIT, Boston, spring 2011.
[1] O. Melendez, M., NREL/TP-540-39423 -- Transitioning to a Hydrogen
Future: Learning from the Alternative Fuels Experience. 2006.
[2] Energy Policy Act of 1992. 1992, P. Law 102-486.
[3] Welch C., Lessons Learned from Alternative Transportation Fuels:
Modeling Transition Dynamics, Technical Report NREL/TP-540-39446;
February 2006.
[4] Greene, D., et al., Hydrogen Transition Modeling and Analysis
:HYTRANS v.1.0, in DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure
Technologies Program Review. 2004.
[5] Greene, D. ORNL/TM-2001/134: TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles
Choice Model Documentation. 2001 July;
[6] Leiby P., Rubin J., The Alternative Fuel Transition: Results from the
TAFV Model of Alternative Fuel Use in Light-Duty Vehicles 1996 -
2010, ORNL/TM2000/168, September 17, 2000.
[7] Conzelmann, G. Hydrogen Transition Modeling Using Complex
Adaptive Systems Approach, 2004.
[8] Mintz, M. and G. Conzelmann, Phone conversation regarding the scope
of RCF and ANL's Complex Adaptive System model, 2005.
[9] Pellon M. B., Grover D. K., Eppstein M. J., Rizzo D. M., Besaw L. E.,
Marshall J. S., An agent-based model for estimating consumer adoption
of PHEV technology, TRB 2010 Annual Meeting.
[10] Struben, J., Technology Transitions: identifying challenges for hydrogen
fuel cell vehicles, in System Dynamics Conference. 2004: Oxford,
England.
[11] Ramjerdi F., and Brundell-FreijK., WSP, The dynamics of the market
for alternative fuel vehicles: The Swedish case study, 1st Transatlantic
NECTAR Conference, The School of Public Policy George Mason
University, USA, 2009.
[12] Estatística do Sector Automóvel, ACAP - Associação Automóvel de
Portugal, edition of 2010.
[13] Direcção Geral de Energia e Geologia, Price of liquid fuels in Portugal,
1960-2003, available at http://www.dgge.pt/
[14] Vensim®, User-s Guide, Version 5- Revision 2; 2005.
[15] Grahn M., Williander M., (2009) The role of ICEVs, HEVs, PHEVs,
BEVs and FCVs in achieving stringent CO2 targets: results from global
energy systems modeling, Stavanger, Norway.
[16] Bandivadekar A., Bodek K., Cheah L., Evans C., Groode T., Heywood
J., Kasseris E., Kromer M., Weiss M., (2008) On the Road in 2035:
Reducing Transportation-s Petroleum Consumption and GHG
Emissions, Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, Report No.
LFEE 2008-05 RP.
[17] Johnson, C., E85 Business Case: When and Why to Sell E85, NREL/PR-
540-42239, 2007.
[18] Kromer M.A. and John B. Heywood, (2007) Electric Powertrains:
Opportunities and Challenges in the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet,
LFEE 2007-03 RP.
[19] Reynolds B. "Ethanol-s Potential Contribution to the U.S.
Transportation Fuel Pool", prepared for DOE, December 2006.
[20] Silva C. Santos, Designing Electric Vehicles charging networks,
Workshop on Green Islands Project, MIT, Boston, spring 2011.
@article{"International Journal of Mechanical, Industrial and Aerospace Sciences:49693", author = "Reza Fazeli and Vitor Leal and Jorge Pinho de Sousa", title = "A New Approach to Design Policies for the Adoption of Alternative Fuel-Technology Powertrains ", abstract = "Planning the transition period for the adoption of
alternative fuel-technology powertrains is a challenging task that
requires sophisticated analysis tools. In this study, a system dynamic
approach was applied to analyze the bi-directional interaction
between the development of the refueling station network and vehicle
sales. Besides, the developed model was used to estimate the
transition cost to reach a predefined target (share of alternative fuel
vehicles) in different scenarios. Several scenarios have been analyzed
to investigate the effectiveness and cost of incentives on the initial
price of vehicles, and on the evolution of fuel and refueling stations.
Obtained results show that a combined set of incentives will be more
effective than just a single specific type of incentives.", keywords = "adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles,System
Dynamic Analysis, Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles", volume = "6", number = "5", pages = "862-8", }
