Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes
requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work
established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a
suitable tool for developing such models. The current research
focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction
error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in
training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an
observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in
each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used
in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at
hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model,
consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters,
was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and
calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks
for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms,
up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of
processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced
average prediction error compared to previous research across all
horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or
12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12
hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively,
improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these
horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different
initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These
results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider
instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial
weights to establish preferred model parameters.
Abstract: This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.
Abstract: Geographical Information Systems are an integral part
of planning in modern technical systems. Nowadays referred to as
Spatial Decision Support Systems, as they allow synergy database
management systems and models within a single user interface
machine and they are important tools in spatial design for
evaluating policies and programs at all levels of administration.
This work refers to the creation of a Geographical Information
System in the context of a broader research in the area of influence
of an under construction station of the new metro in the Greek
city of Thessaloniki, which included statistical and multivariate
data analysis and diagrammatic representation, mapping and
interpretation of the results.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop models that would enable predicting student success. These models could improve allocation of students among colleges and optimize the newly introduced model of government subsidies for higher education. For the purpose of collecting data, an anonymous survey was carried out in the last year of undergraduate degree student population using random sampling method. Decision trees were created of which two have been chosen that were most successful in predicting student success based on two criteria: Grade Point Average (GPA) and time that a student needs to finish the undergraduate program (time-to-degree). Decision trees have been shown as a good method of classification student success and they could be even more improved by increasing survey sample and developing specialized decision trees for each type of college. These types of methods have a big potential for use in decision support systems.
Abstract: Problem solving has traditionally been one of the principal research areas for artificial intelligence. Yet, although artificial intelligence reasoning techniques have been employed in several product support systems, the benefit of integrating product support, knowledge engineering, and problem solving, is still unclear. This paper studies the synergy of these areas and proposes a knowledge engineering framework that integrates product support systems and artificial intelligence techniques. The framework includes four spaces; the data, problem, hypothesis, and solution ones. The data space incorporates the knowledge needed for structured reasoning to take place, the problem space contains representations of problems, and the hypothesis space utilizes a multimodal reasoning approach to produce appropriate solutions in the form of virtual documents. The solution space is used as the gateway between the system and the user. The proposed framework enables the development of product support systems in terms of smaller, more manageable steps while the combination of different reasoning techniques provides a way to overcome the lack of documentation resources.
Abstract: Decision Support System (DSS) are interactive
software systems that are built to assist the management of an
organization in the decision making process when faced with nonroutine
problems in a specific application domain. Non-functional
requirements (NFRs) for a DSS deal with the desirable qualities and
restrictions that the DSS functionalities must satisfy. Unlike the
functional requirements, which are tangible functionalities provided
by the DSS, NFRs are often hidden and transparent to DSS users but
affect the quality of the provided functionalities. NFRs are often
overlooked or added later to the system in an ad hoc manner, leading
to a poor overall quality of the system. In this paper, we discuss the
development of NFRs as part of the requirements engineering phase
of the system development life cycle of DSSs. To help eliciting
NFRs, we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of NFRs for DSSs.
Abstract: Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSSs) are sophisticated, intelligent systems that can provide inference due to lack of information and uncertainty. In such systems, to model the uncertainty various soft computing methods such as Bayesian networks, rough sets, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, inductive logic programming and genetic algorithms and hybrid methods that formed from the combination of the few mentioned methods are used. In this study, symptom-disease relationships are presented by a framework which is modeled with a formal concept analysis and theory, as diseases, objects and attributes of symptoms. After a concept lattice is formed, Bayes theorem can be used to determine the relationships between attributes and objects. A discernibility relation that forms the base of the rough sets can be applied to attribute data sets in order to reduce attributes and decrease the complexity of computation.
Abstract: PARADIGMA (PARticipative Approach to DIsease
Global Management) is a pilot project which aims to develop and
demonstrate an Internet based reference framework to share scientific
resources and findings in the treatment of major diseases.
PARADIGMA defines and disseminates a common methodology and
optimised protocols (Clinical Pathways) to support service functions
directed to patients and individuals on matters like prevention, posthospitalisation
support and awareness. PARADIGMA will provide a
platform of information services - user oriented and optimised
against social, cultural and technological constraints - supporting the
Health Care Global System of the Euro-Mediterranean Community
in a continuous improvement process.
Abstract: Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste
management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack
practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and
complexity of the mathematical models which include the
assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The
approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a
few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This
segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of
the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The
various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and
optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and
has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision
makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction
despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora
of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream
for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.
Abstract: The customary practice of identifying industrial sickness is a set traditional techniques which rely upon a range of manual monitoring and compilation of financial records. It makes the process tedious, time consuming and often are susceptible to manipulation. Therefore, certain readily available tools are required which can deal with such uncertain situations arising out of industrial sickness. It is more significant for a country like India where the fruits of development are rarely equally distributed. In this paper, we propose an approach based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to deal with industrial sickness with specific focus on a few such units taken from a less developed north-east (NE) Indian state like Assam. The proposed system provides decision regarding industrial sickness using eight different parameters which are directly related to the stages of sickness of such units. The mechanism primarily uses certain signals and symptoms of industrial health to decide upon the state of a unit. Specifically, we formulate an ANN based block with data obtained from a few selected units of Assam so that required decisions related to industrial health could be taken. The system thus formulated could become an important part of planning and development. It can also contribute towards computerization of decision support systems related to industrial health and help in better management.
Abstract: One of the processes of slope that occurs every year in Iran and some parts of world and cause a lot of criminal and financial harms is called landslide. They are plenty of method to stability landslide in soil and rock slides. The use of the best method with the least cost and in the shortest time is important for researchers. In this research, determining the best method of stability is investigated by using of Decision Support systems. DSS is made for this purpose and was used (for Hasan Salaran area in Kurdistan). Field study data from topography, slope, geology, geometry of landslide and the related features was used. The related data entered decision making managements programs (DSS) (ALES).Analysis of mass stability indicated the instability potential at present. Research results show that surface and sub surface drainage the best method of stabilizing. Analysis of stability shows that acceptable increase in security coefficient is a consequence of drainage.
Abstract: In most of the cases, natural disasters lead to the
necessity of evacuating people. The quality of evacuation
management is dramatically improved by the use of information
provided by decision support systems, which become indispensable
in case of large scale evacuation operations. This paper presents a
best practice case study. In November 2007, officers from the
Emergency Situations Inspectorate “Crisana" of Bihor County from
Romania participated to a cross-border evacuation exercise, when
700 people have been evacuated from Netherlands to Belgium. One
of the main objectives of the exercise was the test of four different
decision support systems. Afterwards, based on that experience,
software system called TEVAC (Trans Border Evacuation) has been
developed “in house" by the experts of this institution. This original
software system was successfully tested in September 2008, during
the deployment of the international exercise EU-HUROMEX 2008,
the scenario involving real evacuation of 200 persons from Hungary
to Romania. Based on the lessons learned and results, starting from
April 2009, the TEVAC software is used by all Emergency
Situations Inspectorates all over Romania.
Abstract: The structure of retinal vessels is a prominent feature,
that reveals information on the state of disease that are reflected in
the form of measurable abnormalities in thickness and colour.
Vascular structures of retina, for implementation of clinical diabetic
retinopathy decision making system is presented in this paper.
Retinal Vascular structure is with thin blood vessel, whose accuracy
is highly dependent upon the vessel segmentation. In this paper the
blood vessel thickness is automatically detected using preprocessing
techniques and vessel segmentation algorithm. First the capture
image is binarized to get the blood vessel structure clearly, then it is
skeletonised to get the overall structure of all the terminal and
branching nodes of the blood vessels. By identifying the terminal
node and the branching points automatically, the main and branching
blood vessel thickness is estimated. Results are presented and
compared with those provided by clinical classification on 50 vessels
collected from Bejan Singh Eye hospital..
Abstract: Imperfect knowledge cannot be avoided all the time. Imperfections may have several forms; uncertainties, imprecision and incompleteness. When we look to classification of methods for the management of imperfect knowledge we see fuzzy set-based techniques. The choice of a method to process data is linked to the choice of knowledge representation, which can be numerical, symbolic, logical or semantic and it depends on the nature of the problem to be solved for example decision support, which will be mentioned in our study. Fuzzy Logic is used for its ability to manage imprecise knowledge, but it can take advantage of the ability of neural networks to learn coefficients or functions. Such an association of methods is typical of so-called soft computing. In this study a new method was used for the management of imprecision for collected knowledge which related to economic analysis of construction industry in Turkey. Because of sudden changes occurring in economic factors decrease competition strength of construction companies. The better evaluation of these changes in economical factors in view of construction industry will made positive influence on company-s decisions which are dealing construction.
Abstract: Ontology is widely being used as a tool for organizing
information, creating the relation between the subjects within the
defined knowledge domain area. Various fields such as Civil,
Biology, and Management have successful integrated ontology in
decision support systems for managing domain knowledge and to
assist their decision makers. Gross pollutant traps (GPT) are devices
used in trapping and preventing large items or hazardous particles in
polluting and entering our waterways. However choosing and
determining GPT is a challenge in Malaysia as there are inadequate
GPT data repositories being captured and shared. Hence ontology is
needed to capture, organize and represent this knowledge into
meaningful information which can be contributed to the efficiency of
GPT selection in Malaysia urbanization. A GPT Ontology framework
is therefore built as the first step to capture GPT knowledge which
will then be integrated into the decision support system. This paper
will provide several examples of the GPT ontology, and explain how
it is constructed by using the Protégé tool.
Abstract: The localization of software products is essential for reaching the users of the international market. An important task for this is the translation of the user interface into local national languages. As graphical interfaces are usually optimized for the size of the texts in the original language, after the translation certain user controls (e.g. text labels and buttons in dialogs) may grow in such a manner that they slip above each other. This not only causes an unpleasant appearance but also makes the use of the program more difficult (or even impossible) which implies that the arrangement of the controls must be corrected subsequently. The correction should preserve the original structure of the interface (e.g. the relation of logically coherent controls), furthermore, it is important to keep the nicely proportioned design: the formation of large empty areas should be avoided. This paper describes an algorithm that automatically rearranges the controls of a graphical user interface based on the principles above. The algorithm has been implemented and integrated into a translation support system and reached results pleasant for the human eye in most test cases.