Abstract: A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.
Abstract: The goal of option pricing theory is to help the investors
to manage their money, enhance returns and control their financial
future by theoretically valuing their options. However, most of the
option pricing models have no analytical solution. Furthermore,
not all the numerical methods are efficient to solve these models
because they have nonsmoothing payoffs or discontinuous derivatives
at the exercise price. In this paper, we solve the American option
under jump diffusion models by using efficient time-dependent
numerical methods. several techniques are integrated to reduced
the overcome the computational complexity. Fast Fourier Transform
(FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector multiplication solver,
which reduces the complexity from O(M2) into O(M logM).
Partial fraction decomposition technique is applied to rational
approximation schemes to overcome the complexity of inverting
polynomial of matrices. The proposed method is easy to implement
on serial or parallel versions. Numerical results are presented to prove
the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.
Abstract: Small scale hydropower used to play a very important role in the provision of energy to urban and rural areas of South Africa. The national electricity grid, however, expanded and offered cheap, coal generated electricity and a large number of hydropower systems were decommissioned. Unfortunately, large numbers of households and communities will not be connected to the national electricity grid for the foreseeable future due to high cost of transmission and distribution systems to remote communities due to the relatively low electricity demand within rural communities and the allocation of current expenditure on upgrading and constructing of new coal fired power stations. This necessitates the development of feasible alternative power generation technologies. A feasibility and implementation model was developed to assist in designing and financially evaluating small-scale hydropower (SSHP) plants. Several sites were identified using the model. The SSHP plants were designed for the selected sites and the designs for the different selected sites were priced using pricing models (civil, mechanical and electrical aspects). Following feasibility studies done on the designed and priced SSHP plants, a feasibility analysis was done and a design chart developed for future similar potential SSHP plant projects. The methodology followed in conducting the feasibility analysis for other potential sites consisted of developing cost and income/saving formulae, developing net present value (NPV) formulae, Capital Cost Comparison Ratio (CCCR) and levelised cost formulae for SSHP projects for the different types of plant installations. It included setting up a model for the development of a design chart for a SSHP, calculating the NPV, CCCR and levelised cost for the different scenarios within the model by varying different parameters within the developed formulae, setting up the design chart for the different scenarios within the model and analyzing and interpreting results. From the interpretation of the develop design charts for feasible SSHP in can be seen that turbine and distribution line cost are the major influences on the cost and feasibility of SSHP. High head, short transmission line and islanded mini-grid SSHP installations are the most feasible and that the levelised cost of SSHP is high for low power generation sites. The main conclusion from the study is that the levelised cost of SSHP projects indicate that the cost of SSHP for low energy generation is high compared to the levelised cost of grid connected electricity supply; however, the remoteness of SSHP for rural electrification and the cost of infrastructure to connect remote rural communities to the local or national electricity grid provides a low CCCR and renders SSHP for rural electrification feasible on this basis.
Abstract: Throughout this paper, a relatively new technique, the Tabu search variable selection model, is elaborated showing how it can be efficiently applied within the financial world whenever researchers come across the selection of a subset of variables from a whole set of descriptive variables under analysis. In the field of financial prediction, researchers often have to select a subset of variables from a larger set to solve different type of problems such as corporate bankruptcy prediction, personal bankruptcy prediction, mortgage, credit scoring and the Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM). Consequently, to demonstrate how the method operates and to illustrate its usefulness as well as its superiority compared to other commonly used methods, the Tabu search algorithm for variable selection is compared to two main alternative search procedures namely, the stepwise regression and the maximum R 2 improvement method. The Tabu search is then implemented in finance; where it attempts to predict corporate bankruptcy by selecting the most appropriate financial ratios and thus creating its own prediction score equation. In comparison to other methods, mostly the Altman Z-Score model, the Tabu search model produces a higher success rate in predicting correctly the failure of firms or the continuous running of existing entities.
Abstract: Westudy a dual-channel supply chain under
decentralized setting in which manufacturer sells to retailer and to
customers directly usingan online channel. A customer chooses the
purchase-channel based on price and service quality. Also, to buy
product from the retail store, the customer incurs a transportation cost
influenced by the fluctuating gasoline cost. Both companies are under
the revenue sharing contract. In this contract the retailer share a
portion of the revenue to the manufacturer while the manufacturer
will charge the lower wholesales price. The numerical result shows
that the effects of gasoline costs, the revenue sharing ratio and the
wholesale price play an important role in determining optimal prices.
The result shows that when the gasoline price fluctuatesthe optimal
on-line priceis relatively stable while the optimal retail price moves
in the opposite direction of the gasoline prices.
Abstract: In competitive electricity markets all over the world, an adoption of suitable transmission pricing model is a problem as transmission segment still operates as a monopoly. Transmission pricing is an important tool to promote investment for various transmission services in order to provide economic, secure and reliable electricity to bulk and retail customers. The nodal pricing based on SRMC (Short Run Marginal Cost) is found extremely useful by researchers for sending correct economic signals. The marginal prices must be determined as a part of solution to optimization problem i.e. to maximize the social welfare. The need to maximize the social welfare subject to number of system operational constraints is a major challenge from computation and societal point of views. The purpose of this paper is to present a nodal transmission pricing model based on SRMC by developing new mathematical expressions of real and reactive power marginal prices using GA-Fuzzy based optimal power flow framework. The impacts of selecting different social welfare functions on power marginal prices are analyzed and verified with results reported in literature. Network revenues for two different power systems are determined using expressions derived for real and reactive power marginal prices in this paper.
Abstract: With the implied volatility as an important factor in
financial decision-making, in particular in option pricing valuation,
and also the given fact that the pricing biases of Leland option pricing
models and the implied volatility structure for the options are related,
this study considers examining the implied adjusted volatility smile
patterns and term structures in the S&P/ASX 200 index options using
the different Leland option pricing models. The examination of the
implied adjusted volatility smiles and term structures in the
Australian index options market covers the global financial crisis in
the mid-2007. The implied adjusted volatility was found to escalate
approximately triple the rate prior the crisis.
Abstract: This paper tests the level of market integration between Malaysia and Singapore stock markets with the world market. Kalman Filter (KF) methodology is used on the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) and the pricing errors estimated within the framework of ICAPM are used as a measure of market integration or segmentation. The advantage of the KF technique is that it allows for time-varying coefficients in estimating ICAPM and hence able to capture the varying degree of market integration. Empirical results show clear evidence of varying degree of market integration for both case of Malaysia and Singapore. Furthermore, the results show that the changes in the level of market integration are found to coincide with certain economic events that have taken placed. The findings certainly provide evidence on the practicability of the KF technique to estimate stock markets integration. In the comparison between Malaysia and Singapore stock market, the result shows that the trends of the market integration indices for Malaysia and Singapore look similar through time but the magnitude is notably different with the Malaysia stock market showing greater degree of market integration. Finally, significant evidence of varying degree of market integration shows the inappropriate use of OLS in estimating the level of market integration.
Abstract: Unlike this study focused extensively on trading
behavior of option market, those researches were just taken their
attention to model-driven option pricing. For example, Black-Scholes
(B-S) model is one of the most famous option pricing models.
However, the arguments of B-S model are previously mentioned by
some pricing models reviewing. This paper following suggests the
importance of the dynamic character for option pricing, which is also
the reason why using the genetic algorithm (GA). Because of its
natural selection and species evolution, this study proposed a hybrid
model, the Genetic-BS model which combining GA and B-S to
estimate the price more accurate. As for the final experiments, the
result shows that the output estimated price with lower MAE value
than the calculated price by either B-S model or its enhanced one,
Gram-Charlier garch (G-C garch) model. Finally, this work would
conclude that the Genetic-BS pricing model is exactly practical.