Abstract: Wildfires are becoming an increasing concern worldwide, causing substantial social, economic, and environmental disruptions. This situation is especially relevant in Mediterranean-climate regions, present in all the five continents of the world, in which fire is not only a natural component of the environment but also perhaps one of the most important evolutionary forces. The rise in wildfire occurrences and their associated impacts suggests the need for identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing the basis of scientific evidence on how managers and policymakers may act effectively to address them. Considering that the main goal of a systematic map is to collate and catalog a body of evidence to describe the state of knowledge for a specific topic, it is a suitable approach to be used for this purpose. In this context, the aim of this study is to systematically map the research trends in wildfire management practices in Mediterranean-climate regions. A total of 201 wildfire management studies were analyzed and systematically mapped in terms of their: Year of publication; Place of study; Scientific outlet; Research area (Web of Science) or Research field (Scopus); Wildfire phase; Central research topic; Main objective of the study; Research methods; and Main conclusions or contributions. The results indicate that there is an increasing number of studies being developed on the topic (most from the last 10 years), but more than half of them are conducted in few Mediterranean countries (60% of the analyzed studies were conducted in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy or France), and more than 50% are focused on pre-fire issues, such as prevention and fuel management. In contrast, only 12% of the studies focused on “Economic modeling” or “Human factors and issues,” which suggests that the triple bottom line of the sustainability argument (social, environmental, and economic) is not being fully addressed by fire management research. More than one-fourth of the studies had their objective related to testing new approaches in fire or forest management, suggesting that new knowledge is being produced on the field. Nevertheless, the results indicate that most studies (about 84%) employed quantitative research methods, and only 3% of the studies used research methods that tackled social issues or addressed expert and practitioner’s knowledge. Perhaps this lack of multidisciplinary studies is one of the factors hindering more progress from being made in terms of reducing wildfire occurrences and their impacts.
Abstract: Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.
Abstract: An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.
Abstract: The service of passenger waterway transportation lacks economic models that help in designing and implementing strategies to ensure its sustainability in several aspects (economic, social and environmental). The size of costs, though not the only one, is of particular importance in these models. However, traditionally, cost management has been focused only on reducing production costs, for the purpose of companies to keep prices low and gain market competitiveness. Although, with all the technological advances, and other restrictions imposed by the market in terms of service, in the case of passengers waterway transportation: intermodal competition; quality of service; or by regulatory environment for public concession and; in the aspect of business: to stay in the market with natural, demand and institutional restrictions, this view is not enough. Thus, there is an evolution of a traditional cost accounting to strategic cost management. On the other hand, it is important to consider other important dimensions and recognize that companies no longer exist in isolation, but they are part of highly integrated value and supplies chains. Therefore, this work will explore and analyze the sustainable value chain of passenger waterway transportation service using the tools of strategic cost management. The method will start from three components of analysis: (1) definition of basic elements of sustainable value chain; (2) identification of main restrictions to the chain development and aspects critical for service sustainability; (3) development of a cost model and propositions to overcome the bottlenecks found, to add value. Whether in the internal cost structure of the company; operational cost reduction strategies; in search of new markets, or to establish new partnerships or even; in the broadest level, in terms of investments in infrastructure or recommendations involving governance decisions to improve the current institutional environment. The case study will be developed in passenger transport companies located in the Lower Amazon, consolidated in this market, with defined enterprise structure of business sustainability, and who have already been willing to collaborate with the investigation. As results, it is expected to understand the cost structures that support sustainable value chains, namely, costs of activities and relevant cost objects in order to determine the cost drivers, profitability margins, cost reduction opportunities and conditions conducive to competitive advantages related to the different strategic options to cost leadership, differentiation or approach. Finally, in the model to be developed, the proper characterization of cost structure and value creation in transport processes under study may constitute reference points for future more sophisticated applied works of optimizing the resources involved and supporting the decision making, in particular with regard to operations research and quantitative methods more robust.
Abstract: Since mid-2000, the migratory flows of Latin American migrants to Chile have been increasing constantly. There are two reasons that would explain why Chile is presented as an attractive country for the migrants. On the one hand, traditional centres of migrants’ attraction such as the United States and Europe have begun to close their borders. On the other hand, Chile exhibits relative economic and political stability, which offers greater job opportunities and better standard of living when compared to the migrants’ origin country. At the same time, the neoliberal economic model of Chile, developed under an extractive production of the natural resources, has privatized the urban space. The market regulates the growth of the fragmented and segregated cities. Then, the vulnerable population, most of the time, is located in the periphery and in the marginal areas of the urban space. In this aspect, the migrants have begun to occupy those degraded and depressed areas of the city. The problem raised is that the increase of the social spatial segregation could be also attributed to the migrants´ occupation of the marginal urban places of the city. The aim of this investigation is to carry out an analysis of the migrants’ housing strategies, which are transforming the marginal areas of the city. The methodology focused on the urban experience of the migrants, through the observation of spatial practices, ways of living and networks configuration in order to transform the marginal territory. The techniques applied in this study are semi–structured interviews in-depth interviews. The study reveals that the migrants housing strategies for living in the marginal areas of the city are built on a paradox way. On the one hand, the migrants choose proximity to their place of origin, maintaining their identity and customs. On the other hand, the migrants choose proximity to their social and familiar places, generating sense of belonging. In conclusion, the migration as international displacements under a globalized economic model increasing socio spatial segregation in cities is evidenced, but the transformation of the marginal areas is a fundamental resource of their integration migratory process. The importance of this research is that it is everybody´s responsibility not only the right to live in a city without any discrimination but also to integrate the citizens within the social urban space of a city.
Abstract: This paper analyses the various benefits and barriers of residential deconstruction in the context of environmental performance and circular economy based on a case study project in Christchurch, New Zealand. The case study project “Whole House Deconstruction” which aimed, firstly, to harvest materials from a residential house, secondly, to produce new products using the recovered materials, and thirdly, to organize an exhibition for the local public to promote awareness on resource conservation and sustainable deconstruction practices. Through a systematic deconstruction process, the project recovered around 12 tonnes of various construction materials, most of which would otherwise be disposed of to landfill in the traditional demolition approach. It is estimated that the deconstruction of a similar residential house could potentially prevent around 27,029 kg of carbon emission to the atmosphere by recovering and reusing the building materials. In addition, the project involved local designers to produce 400 artefacts using the recovered materials and to exhibit them to accelerate public awareness. The findings from this study suggest that the deconstruction project has significant environmental benefits, as well as social benefits by involving the local community and unemployed youth as a part of their professional skills development opportunities. However, the project faced a number of economic and institutional challenges. The study concludes that with proper economic models and appropriate institutional support a significant amount of construction and demolition waste can be reduced through a systematic deconstruction process. Traditionally, the greatest benefits from such projects are often ignored and remain unreported to wider audiences as most of the external and environmental costs have not been considered in the traditional linear economy.
Abstract: This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.
Abstract: The optimal control is one of the possible controllers
for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using
the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method .
Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative
disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that
the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters
difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability
calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy
logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it
operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial
decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time.
This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control
of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm.
A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the
linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model
of Goodwin.
Abstract: Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed
Abstract: Climate change has profound consequences for the agriculture of south-eastern Australia and its climate-induced water shortage in the Murray-Darling Basin. Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) macro-dynamics, along with Kaleckian investment and growth theory, are used to develop an ecological-economic system dynamics model of this complex nonlinear river basin system. The Murray- Darling Basin Simulation Model (MDB-SM) uses the principles of PKE to incorporate the fundamental uncertainty of economic behaviors of farmers regarding the investments they make and the climate change they face, particularly as regards water ecosystem services. MDB-SM provides a framework for macroeconomic policies, especially for long-term fiscal policy and for policy directed at the sustainability of agricultural water, as measured by socio-economic well-being considerations, which include sustainable consumption and investment in the river basin. The model can also reproduce other ecological and economic aspects and, for certain parameters and initial values, exhibit endogenous business cycles and ecological sustainability with realistic characteristics. Most importantly, MDBSM provides a platform for the analysis of alternative economic policy scenarios. These results reveal the importance of understanding water ecosystem adaptation under climate change by integrating a PKE macroeconomic analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach. Once parameterised and supplied with historical initial values, MDB-SM should prove to be a practical tool to provide alternative long-term policy simulations of agricultural water and socio-economic well-being.
Abstract: Fish-feed is a major cost component of operating expenses for any aquaculture farm. Due to soaring prices of fish-feed ingredients, the need for better feeding schedule management has become imperative. On such factor that influences the utilization rate of fish-feed are sea currents. Up to now, practical monitoring of fishfeed loss due to sea currents is not exercised. This paper gives a description of an economic methodology that aims at quantifying the amount of fish-feed lost due to sea currents and draws on data from a Mediterranean aquaculture farm to formulate the associated model.
Abstract: The impact assessment in its various forms has
recently become a very important part of policy-making and
legislation in many different countries. Regulatory impact assessment
(RIA) is yet another set of analytical methods deployed in the
legislation of the European Union, of many developed countries as
well as in many developing ones such as Mexico, Malaysia and
Philippines. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical
background for economic models in regulatory impact assessment
and an overview of their application especially on the financial
market in the Czech Republic. We found out an inadequate
application of these models, what makes room for further research in
this field.
Abstract: The paper presents a computational tool developed for
the evaluation of technical and economic advantages of an innovative
cleaning and conditioning technology of fluidized bed steam/oxygen
gasifiers outlet product gas. This technology integrates into a single
unit the steam gasification of biomass and the hot gas cleaning and
conditioning system. Both components of the computational tool,
process flowsheet and economic evaluator, have been developed
under IPSEpro software. The economic model provides information
that can help potential users, especially small and medium size
enterprises acting in the regenerable energy field, to decide the
optimal scale of a plant and to better understand both potentiality and
limits of the system when applied to a wide range of conditions.
Abstract: If price and quantity are the fundamental building
blocks of any theory of market interactions, the importance of trading
volume in understanding the behavior of financial markets is clear.
However, while many economic models of financial markets have
been developed to explain the behavior of prices -predictability,
variability, and information content- far less attention has been
devoted to explaining the behavior of trading volume. In this article,
we hope to expand our understanding of trading volume by
developing a new measure of herding behavior based on a cross
sectional dispersion of volumes betas. We apply our measure to the
Toronto stock exchange using monthly data from January 2000 to
December 2002. Our findings show that the herd phenomenon
consists of three essential components: stationary herding, intentional
herding and the feedback herding.
Abstract: Semantic Web Technologies enable machines to
interpret data published in a machine-interpretable form on the web.
At the present time, only human beings are able to understand the
product information published online. The emerging semantic Web
technologies have the potential to deeply influence the further
development of the Internet Economy. In this paper we propose a
scenario based research approach to predict the effects of these new
technologies on electronic markets and business models of traders
and intermediaries and customers. Over 300 million searches are
conducted everyday on the Internet by people trying to find what
they need. A majority of these searches are in the domain of
consumer ecommerce, where a web user is looking for something to
buy. This represents a huge cost in terms of people hours and an
enormous drain of resources. Agent enabled semantic search will
have a dramatic impact on the precision of these searches. It will
reduce and possibly eliminate information asymmetry where a better
informed buyer gets the best value. By impacting this key
determinant of market prices semantic web will foster the evolution
of different business and economic models. We submit that there is a
need for developing these futuristic models based on our current
understanding of e-commerce models and nascent semantic web
technologies. We believe these business models will encourage
mainstream web developers and businesses to join the “semantic web
revolution."