Abstract: An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.
Abstract: The challenge for everyone involved in preserving the ecosystem is to find creative ways to protect and restore the remaining ecosystems while accommodating and enhancing the country social and economic well-being. Frequent fires of anthropogenic origin have been affecting the ecosystems in many countries adversely. Hence adopting ways of decision making such as Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) is appropriate since it will enhance the evaluation and analysis of fire risk and hazard of the ecosystem. In this paper, fire risk and hazard data from the West Gonja area of Ghana were used in some of the methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process, Compromise Programming, and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) for MCDM evaluation and analysis to determine the optimal weight method for fire risk and hazard. Ranking of the land cover types was carried out using; Fire Hazard, Fire Fighting Capacity and Response Risk Criteria. Pairwise comparison under Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of the various criteria. Weights for sub-criteria were also obtained by the pairwise comparison method. The results were optimised using GRA and Compromise Programming (CP). The results from each method, hybrid GRA and CP, were compared and it was established that all methods were satisfactory in terms of optimisation of weight. The most optimal method for spatial multicriteria evaluation was the hybrid GRA method. Thus, a hybrid AHP and GRA method is more effective method for ranking alternatives in MCDM than the hybrid AHP and CP method.
Abstract: The implementation of lean manufacturing initiatives has produced significant impacts in improving operational performance and reducing manufacturing wastes in the production process. However, selecting an appropriate set of lean strategies is critical to avoid misapplication of the lean manufacturing techniques and consequential increase in non-value-adding activities. To the author’s best knowledge, there is currently no methodology to select lean strategies that considers their impacts on manufacturing wastes and performance metrics simultaneously. In this research, a multi-objective methodology is proposed that suggests an appropriate set of lean initiatives based on their impacts on performance metrics and manufacturing wastes and within manufacturers’ resource limitation. The proposed methodology in this research suggests the best set of lean initiatives for implementation that have highest impacts on identified critical performance metrics and manufacturing wastes. Therefore, manufacturers can assure that implementing suggested lean tools improves their production performance and reduces manufacturing wastes at the same time. A case study was conducted to show the effectiveness and validate the proposed model and methodologies.
Abstract: This paper presents an optimization method for
reducing the number of input channels and the complexity of the
feed-forward NARX neural network (NN) without compromising the
accuracy of the NN model. By utilizing the correlation analysis
method, the most significant regressors are selected to form the input
layer of the NN structure. An application of vehicle dynamic model
identification is also presented in this paper to demonstrate the
optimization technique and the optimal input layer structure and the
optimal number of neurons for the neural network is investigated.
Abstract: A model of user behaviour based automated planning
is introduced in this work. The behaviour of users of web interactive
systems can be described in term of a planning domain encapsulating
the timed actions patterns representing the intended user profile. The
user behaviour recognition is then posed as a planning problem
where the goal is to parse a given sequence of user logs of the
observed activities while reaching a final state.
A general technique for transforming a timed finite state automata
description of the behaviour into a numerical parameter planning
model is introduced.
Experimental results show that the performance of a planning
based behaviour model is effective and scalable for real world
applications. A major advantage of the planning based approach is to
represent in a single automated reasoning framework problems of
plan recognitions, plan synthesis and plan optimisation.
Abstract: Designing modern machine tools is a complex task. A
simulation tool to aid the design work, a virtual machine, has
therefore been developed in earlier work. The virtual machine
considers the interaction between the mechanics of the machine
(including structural flexibility) and the control system. This paper
exemplifies the usefulness of the virtual machine as a tool for product
development. An optimisation study is conducted aiming at
improving the existing design of a machine tool regarding weight and
manufacturing accuracy at maintained manufacturing speed. The
problem can be categorised as constrained multidisciplinary multiobjective
multivariable optimisation. Parameters of the control and
geometric quantities of the machine are used as design variables. This
results in a mix of continuous and discrete variables and an
optimisation approach using a genetic algorithm is therefore
deployed. The accuracy objective is evaluated according to
international standards. The complete systems model shows nondeterministic
behaviour. A strategy to handle this based on statistical
analysis is suggested. The weight of the main moving parts is reduced
by more than 30 per cent and the manufacturing accuracy is
improvement by more than 60 per cent compared to the original
design, with no reduction in manufacturing speed. It is also shown
that interaction effects exist between the mechanics and the control,
i.e. this improvement would most likely not been possible with a
conventional sequential design approach within the same time, cost
and general resource frame. This indicates the potential of the virtual
machine concept for contributing to improved efficiency of both
complex products and the development process for such products.
Companies incorporating such advanced simulation tools in their
product development could thus improve its own competitiveness as
well as contribute to improved resource efficiency of society at large.
Abstract: Business rules are widely used within the services
sector. They provide consistency and allow relatively unskilled staff
to process complex transactions correctly. But there are many
examples where the rules themselves have an impact on the costs and
profits of an organisation. Financial services, transport and human
services are areas where the rules themselves can impact the bottom
line in a predictable way. If this is the case, how can we find that set
of rules that maximise profit, performance or customer service, or
any other key performance indicators? The manufacturing, energy
and process industries have embraced mathematical optimisation
techniques to improve efficiency, increase production and so on. This
paper explores several real world (but simplified) problems in the
services sector and shows how business rules can be optimised. It
also examines the similarities and differences between the service
and other sectors, and how optimisation techniques could be used to
deliver similar benefits.