Abstract: Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to
predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments.
However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce
gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems.
Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of
the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are
available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and
hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly
due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in
the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a
framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was
developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was
developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration
parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of
concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of
parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was
performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is
a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference
when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to
compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was
used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For
comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments
using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used.
The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN
result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior
predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior
predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD),
root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found
reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using
ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior
distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated
uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE
URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the
analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework
performs well for automatic calibration.
Abstract: Strategic investment decisions are characterized by
high innovation potential and long-term effects on the
competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks
involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for
well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and
the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation.
One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on
benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management
Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with
the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by
integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the
chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s
target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic
approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment.
This participation-oriented method was applied to business
environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a
library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects.
These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with
regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time,
an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects
regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The
results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise
measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits.
Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information
technology and data science for decision support when applying
within the PEFB-method.
Abstract: Distance learning systems offer useful methods of
learning and usually contain a final course test or another form of
test. The paper proposes a web application for evaluating tests using
an expert system in distance learning systems. The proposed web
application is appropriate for didactic tests or tests with results for
subsequent studying follow-up courses. The web application works
with test questions and uses an expert system and LFLC tool for test
evaluation. After test evaluation, the results are visualized and shown
to the student.
Abstract: In this paper, we will try to demonstrate the
importance of the project approach in the urban to deal with
uncertainty, the importance of the involvement of all stakeholders in
the urban project process and that the absence of an actor can lead to
project failure but also the importance of the urban project
management. These points are handled through the following questions: Does
the urban adhere to the theory of complexity? Does the project
approach bring hope and solution to make urban planning
"sustainable"? How converging visions of actors for the same
project? Is the management of urban project the solution to support
the urban project approach?
Abstract: This article presents the main results of a numerical
investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures
with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A
computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is
implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a
typical industrial building structure. The significance of random
damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the
sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a
resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of
damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are
compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation
techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of
damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping
coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of
dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the
LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for
structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is
demonstrated.
Abstract: Construction industry plays a vital role in the
economy of the world. However, due to high uncertainty and
variability in the industry, its performance is not as efficient in terms
of quality, lead times, productivity and costs as of other industries.
Moreover, there are continuous conflicts among the different actors
in the construction supply chains in terms of profit sharing. Previous
studies suggested partnership as an important approach to promote
cooperation among the different actors in the construction supply
chains and thereby it improves the overall performance. Construction
practitioners tried to focus on partnership which can enhance the
performance of construction supply chains but they are not fully
aware of different approaches and techniques for improving
partnership. In this research, a systematic review on partnership in
relation to construction supply chains is carried out to understand
different elements influencing the partnership. The research
development of this domain is analyzed by reviewing selected
articles published from 1996 to 2015. Based on the papers, three
major elements influencing partnership in construction supply chains
are identified: ‘Lean approach’, ‘Relationship building’ and ‘E-commerce
applications’. This study analyses the contributions in the
areas within each element and provides suggestions for future
developments of partnership in construction supply chains.
Abstract: Financial inclusion has become a crucially important
factor in debates on economic inequality posing challenges to the
financial systems of countries around the world. Nowadays
governments and banks are concerned about creating products that
allow access to wide sectors of the population. The creation of
banking products by the financial sector for people with low incomes
tends to lead to improvements in the quality of life of vulnerable parts
of the population. In countries with notable social and economic
inequalities, financial inclusion is a key aspect for equitable
economic growth. This study is based on the case of Colombia, which is a country
with a strong record of economic growth over the past decade.
Nevertheless, corruption, unemployment, and poverty contribute to
uncertainty regarding the country’s future growth prospects. This study wants to explain the situation of financial exclusion and
financial inclusion with respect to the Colombian case. Financial
inclusion is going to be studied from the perspective of social
innovation.
Abstract: For a rigid body sliding on a rough surface, a range of
uncertainty or non-uniqueness of solution could be found, which is
termed: Painlevé paradox. Painlevé paradox is the reason of a wide
range of bouncing motion, observed during sliding of robotic
manipulators on rough surfaces. In this research work, the existence
of the paradox zone during the sliding motion of a two-link (P-R)
robotic manipulator with a unilateral constraint is investigated.
Parametric study is performed to investigate the effect of friction,
link-length ratio, total height and link-mass ratio on the paradox zone.
Abstract: The current tools for real time management of sewer
systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather
forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first
ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of
the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of
their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that
the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by
approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that
"hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a
large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds)
allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real
time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system
where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where
the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different
return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary
from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then
used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the
subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this
new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained
gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment
and of 65 % in the number of discharges.
Abstract: Unsatisfactory experiences due to an information shortage regarding the future pay-offs of actual choices, yield satisficing decision-making. This research will examine, for the first time in the literature, the motivation behind suboptimal decisions due to uncertainty by subjecting Adam Smith’s and Jeremy Bentham’s assumptions about the nature of the actions that lead to satisficing behavior, in order to clarify the theoretical background of a “consumption-based satisfactory time” concept. The contribution of this paper with respect to the existing literature is threefold: firstly, it is showed in this paper that Adam Smith’s uncertainty is related to the problem of the constancy of ideas and not related directly to beliefs. Secondly, possessions, as in Jeremy Bentham’s oeuvre, are assumed to be just as pleasing, as protecting and improving the actual or expected quality of life, so long as they reduce any displeasure due to the undesired outcomes of uncertainty. Finally, each consumption decision incurs its own satisfactory time period, owed to not feeling hungry, being healthy, not having transportation…etc. This reveals that the level of satisfaction is indeed a behavioral phenomenon where its value would depend on the simultaneous satisfaction derived from all activities.
Abstract: This paper proposes that in the course of evolution
pitch structure became a human specific tool of communication the
function of which is to induce emotional states such as uncertainty
and cohesion. By the means of eliciting these emotions during
collective music performance people are able to unconsciously give
cues concerning social acceptance. This is probably one of the
reasons why in all cultures people collectively perform tonal music. It
is also suggested that tonal pitch structure had been invented socially
before it became an evolutionary innovation of hominines. It means
that a predisposition to tonally organize pitches evolved by the means
of ‘Baldwin effect’ – a process in which natural selection transforms
the learned response of an organism into the instinctive response. In
the proposed, hypothetical evolutionary scenario of the emergence of
tonal pitch structure social forces such as a need for closer
cooperation play the crucial role.
Abstract: In this article, a new method is proposed for the measuring of well-being inequality through a model composed of superimposing satisfaction waves. The displacement of households’ satisfactory state (i.e. satisfaction) is defined in a satisfaction string. The duration of the satisfactory state for a given period is measured in order to determine the relationship between utility and total satisfactory time, itself dependent on the density and tension of each satisfaction string. Thus, individual cardinal total satisfaction values are computed by way of a one-dimensional form for scalar sinusoidal (harmonic) moving wave function, using satisfaction waves with varying amplitudes and frequencies which allow us to measure wellbeing inequality. One advantage to using satisfaction waves is the ability to show that individual utility and consumption amounts would probably not commute; hence, it is impossible to measure or to know simultaneously the values of these observables from the dataset. Thus, we crystallize the problem by using a Heisenberg-type uncertainty resolution for self-adjoint economic operators. We propose to eliminate any estimation bias by correlating the standard deviations of selected economic operators; this is achieved by replacing the aforementioned observed uncertainties with households’ perceived uncertainties (i.e. corrected standard deviations) obtained through the logarithmic psychophysical law proposed by Weber and Fechner.
Abstract: Electrohydraulic servo system have been used in
industry in a wide number of applications. Its dynamics are highly
nonlinear and also have large extent of model uncertainties and
external disturbances. In this paper, a robust back-stepping control
(RBSC) scheme is proposed to overcome the problem of disturbances
and system uncertainties effectively and to improve the tracking
performance of EHS systems. In order to implement the proposed
control scheme, the system uncertainties in EHS systems are
considered as total leakage coefficient and effective oil volume. In
addition, in order to obtain the virtual controls for stabilizing system,
the update rule for the system uncertainty term is induced by
the Lyapunov control function (LCF). To verify the performance and
robustness of the proposed control system, computer simulation of
the proposed control system using Matlab/Simulink Software
is executed. From the computer simulation, it was found that the
RBSC system produces the desired tracking performance and has
robustness to the disturbances and system uncertainties of EHS
systems.
Abstract: Batch production plants provide a wide range of
scheduling problems. In pharmaceutical industries a batch process
is usually described by a recipe, consisting of an ordering of tasks
to produce the desired product. In this research work we focused
on pharmaceutical production processes requiring the culture of
a microorganism population (i.e. bacteria, yeasts or antibiotics).
Several sources of uncertainty may influence the yield of the culture
processes, including (i) low performance and quality of the cultured
microorganism population or (ii) microbial contamination. For
these reasons, robustness is a valuable property for the considered
application context. In particular, a robust schedule will not collapse
immediately when a cell of microorganisms has to be thrown away
due to a microbial contamination. Indeed, a robust schedule should
change locally in small proportions and the overall performance
measure (i.e. makespan, lateness) should change a little if at all.
In this research work we formulated a constraint programming
optimization (COP) model for the robust planning of antibiotics
production. We developed a discrete-time model with a multi-criteria
objective, ordering the different criteria and performing a
lexicographic optimization. A feasible solution of the proposed
COP model is a schedule of a given set of tasks onto available
resources. The schedule has to satisfy tasks precedence constraints,
resource capacity constraints and time constraints. In particular
time constraints model tasks duedates and resource availability
time windows constraints. To improve the schedule robustness, we
modeled the concept of (a, b) super-solutions, where (a, b) are input
parameters of the COP model. An (a, b) super-solution is one in
which if a variables (i.e. the completion times of a culture tasks)
lose their values (i.e. cultures are contaminated), the solution can be
repaired by assigning these variables values with a new values (i.e.
the completion times of a backup culture tasks) and at most b other
variables (i.e. delaying the completion of at most b other tasks).
The efficiency and applicability of the proposed model is
demonstrated by solving instances taken from a real-life
pharmaceutical company. Computational results showed that
the determined super-solutions are near-optimal.
Abstract: In this paper, we present a new segmentation approach
for focal liver lesions in contrast enhanced ultrasound imaging. This
approach, based on a two-cluster Fuzzy C-Means methodology,
considers type-II fuzzy sets to handle uncertainty due to the image
modality (presence of speckle noise, low contrast, etc.), and to
calculate the optimum inter-cluster threshold. Fine boundaries are
detected by a local recursive merging of ambiguous pixels. The
method has been tested on a representative database. Compared to
both Otsu and type-I Fuzzy C-Means techniques, the proposed
method significantly reduces the segmentation errors.
Abstract: In this paper, we present a new segmentation approach
for liver lesions in regions of interest within MRI (Magnetic
Resonance Imaging). This approach, based on a two-cluster Fuzzy CMeans
methodology, considers the parameter variable compactness
to handle uncertainty. Fine boundaries are detected by a local
recursive merging of ambiguous pixels with a sequential forward
floating selection with Zernike moments. The method has been tested
on both synthetic and real images. When applied on synthetic images,
the proposed approach provides good performance, segmentations
obtained are accurate, their shape is consistent with the ground truth,
and the extracted information is reliable. The results obtained on MR
images confirm such observations. Our approach allows, even for
difficult cases of MR images, to extract a segmentation with good
performance in terms of accuracy and shape, which implies that the
geometry of the tumor is preserved for further clinical activities (such
as automatic extraction of pharmaco-kinetics properties, lesion
characterization, etc.).
Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic
risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film
distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product
(movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a
fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and
applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex
phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both
independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with
distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant
comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of
interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk
behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk
behavior under conditions of uncertainty.
Abstract: It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation
life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty
and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to
analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life
at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to find the effect of load ratio
on probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a
specified grown crack size and to confirm the good probability
distribution in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio
conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue
crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under
several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability
distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed. The
effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is
also investigated.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present a modeling and
control of a quarter-car active suspension system with unknown
mass, unknown time-delay and road disturbance. The objective of
designing the controller is to derive a control law to achieve stability
of the system and convergence that can considerably improve ride
comfort and road disturbance handling. This is accomplished by
using Routh-Hurwitz criterion based on defined parameters.
Mathematical proof is given to show the ability of the designed
controller to ensure the target of design, implementation with the
active suspension system and enhancement dispersion oscillation of
the system despite these problems. Simulations were also performed
to control quarter car suspension, where the results obtained from
these simulations verify the validity of the proposed design.
Abstract: Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into
during decision-making in product development and related areas.
Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information
availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market
uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the
market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market
uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirmed
the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention
criterion ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups
from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes
with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of
uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer
orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.