Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Comparison between Logistic Regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Models in the Municipality of Oudka, Northern of Morocco

The logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MarSpline) are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility map in Oudka, Morocco, using geographical information system. From spatial database containing data such as landslide mapping, topography, soil, hydrology and lithology, the eight factors related to landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to road, distance to faults, lithology map and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by the two mentioned methods. Before the calculation, this database was divided into two parts, the first for the formation of the model and the second for the validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates to evaluate the quality of these probabilistic models. The result of this verification was that the MarSpline model is the best model with a success rate (AUC = 0.963) and a prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) higher than the LR model (success rate AUC = 0.918, rate prediction AUC = 0.901).

Using GIS and Map Data for the Analysis of the Relationship between Soil and Groundwater Quality at Saline Soil Area of Kham Sakaesaeng District, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand

The study area is Kham Sakaesaeng District in Nakhon Ratchasima Province, the south section of Northeastern Thailand, located in the Lower Khorat-Ubol Basin. This region is the one of saline soil area, located in a dry plateau and regularly experience standing with periods of floods and alternating with periods of drought. Especially, the drought in the summer season causes the major saline soil and saline water problems of this region. The general cause of dry land salting resulted from salting on irrigated land, and an excess of water leading to the rising water table in the aquifer. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of physical and chemical properties between the soil and groundwater. The soil and groundwater samples were collected in both rainy and summer seasons. The content of pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), chloride and salinity were investigated. The experimental result of soil and groundwater samples show the slightly pH less than 7, EC (186 to 8,156 us/cm and 960 to 10,712 us/cm), TDS (93 to 3,940 ppm and 480 to 5,356 ppm), chloride content (45.58 to 4,177,015 mg/l and 227.90 to 9,216,736 mg/l), and salinity (0.07 to 4.82 ppt and 0.24 to 14.46 ppt) in the rainy and summer seasons, respectively. The distribution of chloride content and salinity content were interpolated and displayed as a map by using ArcMap 10.3 program, according to the season. The result of saline soil and brined groundwater in the study area were related to the low-lying topography, drought area, and salt-source exposure. Especially, the Rock Salt Member of Maha Sarakham Formation was exposed or lies near the ground surface in this study area. During the rainy season, salt was eroded or weathered from the salt-source rock formation and transported by surface flow or leached into the groundwater. In the dry season, the ground surface is dry enough resulting salt precipitates from the brined surface water or rises from the brined groundwater influencing the increasing content of chloride and salinity in the ground surface and groundwater.

Multiscale Modelization of Multilayered Bi-Dimensional Soils

Soil moisture content is a key variable in many environmental sciences. Even though it represents a small proportion of the liquid freshwater on Earth, it modulates interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, thereby influencing climate and weather. Accurate modeling of the above processes depends on the ability to provide a proper spatial characterization of soil moisture. The measurement of soil moisture content allows assessment of soil water resources in the field of hydrology and agronomy. The second parameter in interaction with the radar signal is the geometric structure of the soil. Most traditional electromagnetic models consider natural surfaces as single scale zero mean stationary Gaussian random processes. Roughness behavior is characterized by statistical parameters like the Root Mean Square (RMS) height and the correlation length. Then, the main problem is that the agreement between experimental measurements and theoretical values is usually poor due to the large variability of the correlation function, and as a consequence, backscattering models have often failed to predict correctly backscattering. In this study, surfaces are considered as band-limited fractal random processes corresponding to a superposition of a finite number of one-dimensional Gaussian process each one having a spatial scale. Multiscale roughness is characterized by two parameters, the first one is proportional to the RMS height, and the other one is related to the fractal dimension. Soil moisture is related to the complex dielectric constant. This multiscale description has been adapted to two-dimensional profiles using the bi-dimensional wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm to describe more correctly natural surfaces. We characterize the soil surfaces and sub-surfaces by a three layers geo-electrical model. The upper layer is described by its dielectric constant, thickness, a multiscale bi-dimensional surface roughness model by using the wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm, and volume scattering parameters. The lower layer is divided into three fictive layers separated by an assumed plane interface. These three layers were modeled by an effective medium characterized by an apparent effective dielectric constant taking into account the presence of air pockets in the soil. We have adopted the 2D multiscale three layers small perturbations model including, firstly air pockets in the soil sub-structure, and then a vegetable canopy in the soil surface structure, that is to simulate the radar backscattering. A sensitivity analysis of backscattering coefficient dependence on multiscale roughness and new soil moisture has been performed. Later, we proposed to change the dielectric constant of the multilayer medium because it takes into account the different moisture values of each layer in the soil. A sensitivity analysis of the backscattering coefficient, including the air pockets in the volume structure with respect to the multiscale roughness parameters and the apparent dielectric constant, was carried out. Finally, we proposed to study the behavior of the backscattering coefficient of the radar on a soil having a vegetable layer in its surface structure.

Projections of Climate Change in the Rain Regime of the Ibicui River Basin

The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Forest Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study from East Bokaro Coal Mining Area in India

The expansion of large scale coal mining into forest areas is a potential hazard for the local biodiversity and wildlife. The objective of this study is to provide a picture of the threat that coal mining poses to the forests of the East Bokaro landscape. The vulnerable forest areas at risk have been assessed and the priority areas for conservation have been presented. The forested areas at risk in the current scenario have been assessed and compared with the past conditions using classification and buffer based overlay approach. Forest vulnerability has been assessed using an analytical framework based on systematic indicators and composite vulnerability index values. The results indicate that more than 4 km2 of forests have been lost from 1973 to 2016. Large patches of forests have been diverted for coal mining projects. Forests in the northern part of the coal field within 1-3 km radius around the coal mines are at immediate risk. The original contiguous forests have been converted into fragmented and degraded forest patches. Most of the collieries are located within or very close to the forests thus threatening the biodiversity and hydrology of the surrounding regions. Based on the vulnerability values estimated, it was concluded that more than 90% of the forested grids in East Bokaro are highly vulnerable to mining. The forests in the sub-districts of Bermo and Chandrapura have been identified as the most vulnerable to coal mining activities. This case study would add to the capacity of the forest managers and mine managers to address the risk and vulnerability of forests at a small landscape level in order to achieve sustainable development.

Contributions of Natural and Human Activities to Urban Surface Runoff with Different Hydrological Scenarios (Orléans, France)

This study aims at improving the urban hydrological cycle of the Orléans agglomeration (France) and understanding the relationship between physical and chemical parameters of urban surface runoff and the hydrological conditions. In particular water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, major dissolved cations and anions, and chemical and biological oxygen demands were monitored for three types of urban water discharges (wastewater treatment plant output (WWTP), storm overflow and stormwater outfall) under two hydrologic scenarios (dry and wet weather). The first results were obtained over a period of five months. Each investigated (Ormes, l’Egoutier and La Corne) outfall represents an urban runoff source that receives water from runoff roads, gutters, the irrigation of gardens and other sources of flow over the Earth’s surface that drains in its catchments and carries it to the Loire River. In wet weather conditions there is rain water runoff and an additional input from the roof gutters that have entered the stormwater system during rainfall. For the comparison the results La Chilesse is a storm overflow that was selected in our study as a potential source of waste water which is located before the (WWTP). The comparison of the physical-chemical parameters (total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), concentration of major cations and anions) together with the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD) helped to characterize sources of runoff waters in the different watersheds. It also helped to highlight the infiltration of wastewater in some stormwater systems that reject directly in the Loire River. The values of the conductivity measured in the outflow of Ormes were always higher than those measured in the other two outlets. The results showed a temporal variation for the Ormes outfall of conductivity from 1465 μS cm-1 in the dry weather flow to 650 μS cm-1 in the wet weather flow and also a spatial variation in the wet weather flow from 650 μS cm-1 in the Ormes outfall to 281 μS cm-1 in L’Egouttier outfall. The ultimate BOD (BOD28) showed a significant decrease in La Corne outfall from 181 mg L-1 in the wet weather flow to 95 mg L-1 in the dry weather flow because of the nutrient load that was transported by the runoff.

A New Intelligent, Dynamic and Real Time Management System of Sewerage

The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.

Assessment of Hargreaves Equation for Estimating Monthly Reference Evapotranspiration in the South of Iran

Evapotranspiration is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in water and energy balances on the earth’s surface, and knowledge of the distribution of ET is a key factor in hydrology, climatology, agronomy and ecology studies. Many researchers have a valid relationship, which is a function of climate factors, to estimate the potential evapotranspiration presented to the plant water stress or water loss, prevent. The FAO-Penman method (PM) had been recommended as a standard method. This method requires many data and these data are not available in every area of world. So, other methods should be evaluated for these conditions. When sufficient or reliable data to solve the PM equation are not available then Hargreaves equation can be used. The Hargreaves equation (HG) requires only daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature extraterrestrial radiation .In this study, Hargreaves method (HG) were evaluated in 12 stations in the North West region of Iran. Results of HG and M.HG methods were compared with results of PM method. Statistical analysis of this comparison showed that calibration process has had significant effect on efficiency of Hargreaves method.

Variability of Hydrological Modeling of the Blue Nile

The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Review of Downscaling Methods in Climate Change and Their Role in Hydrological Studies

Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Determination the Curve Number Catchment by Using GIS and Remote Sensing

In recent years, geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing using has increased to estimate runoff catchment. In this research, runoff curve number maps for captive catchment of Tehran by helping GIS and also remote sensing which based on factors such as vegetation, lands using, group of soil hydrology and hydrological conditions were obtained. Runoff curve numbers map was obtained by combining these maps in ARC GIS and SCS table. To evaluate the accuracy of the results, the maximum flow rate of flood which was obtained from curve numbers, was compared with the measured maximum flood rate at the watershed outlet and correctness of curve numbers were approved.

An Assessment of Water Pollution of the Beshar River Aquatic Ecosystems

The Beshar River is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems in the upstream of the Karun watershed in south of Iran which is affected by point and non point pollutant sources . This study was done in order to evaluate the effects of pollutants activities on the water quality of the Beshar river and its aquatic ecosystems. This river is approximately 190 km in length and situated at the geographical positions of 51° 20´ to 51° 48´ E and 30° 18´ to 30° 52´ N it is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems of Kohkiloye and Boyerahmad province in south-west Iran. In this research project, five study stations were selected to examine water pollution in the Beshar River systems. Human activity is now one of the most important factors affecting on hydrology and water quality of the Beshar river. Humans use large amounts of resources to sustain various standards of living, although measures of sustainability are highly variable depending on how sustainability is defined. The Beshar river ecosystems are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to human activities. Therefore, to determine the impact of human activities on the Beshar River, the most important water quality parameters such as pH, dissolve oxygen (DO), Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD5), Total Dissolve Solids (TDS), Nitrates (NO3-N) and Phosphates (PO4) were estimated at the five stations. As the results show, the most important pollution index parameters such as BOD5, NO3 and PO4 increase and DO and pH decrease according to human activities (P

Neural Networks: From Black Box towards Transparent Box Application to Evapotranspiration Modeling

Neural networks are well known for their ability to model non linear functions, but as statistical methods usually does, they use a no parametric approach thus, a priori knowledge is not obvious to be taken into account no more than the a posteriori knowledge. In order to deal with these problematics, an original way to encode the knowledge inside the architecture is proposed. This method is applied to the problem of the evapotranspiration inside karstic aquifer which is a problem of huge utility in order to deal with water resource.

Cloud Forest Characteristics of Khao Nan, Thailand

A better understanding of cloud forest characteristic in a tropical montane cloud forest at Khao Nan, Nakhon Si Thammarat on climatic, vegetation, soil and hydrology were studied during 18-21 April 2007. The results showed that as air temperature at Sanyen cloud forest increased, the percent relative humidity decreased. The amount of solar radiation at Sanyen cloud forest had a positive association with the amount of solar radiation at Parah forest. The amount of solar radiation at Sanyen cloud forest was very low with a range of 0-19 W/m2. On the other hand, the amount of solar radiation at Parah forest was high with a range of 0-1000 W/m2. There was no difference between leaf width, leaf length, leaf thickness and leaf area with increasing in elevations. As the elevations increased, bush height and tree height decreased. There was no association between bush width and bush ratio with elevation. As the elevations increased, the percent epiphyte cover and the percent soil moisture increased but water temperature, conductivity, and dissolved oxygen decreased. The percent soil moistures and organic contents were higher at elevations above 900 m than elevations below.

The Necessity of Optimized Management on Surface Water Sources of Zayanderood Basin

One of the efficient factors in comprehensive development of an area is to provide water sources and on the other hand the appropriate management of them. Population growth and nourishment security for such a population necessitate the achievement of constant development besides the reforming of traditional management in order to increase the profit of sources; In this case, the constant exploitation of sources for the next generations will be considered in this program. The achievement of this development without the consideration and possibility of water development will be too difficult. Zayanderood basin with 41500 areas in square kilometers contains 7 sub-basins and 20 units of hydrologic. In this basin area, from the entire environment descending, just a small part will enter into the river currents and the rest will be out of efficient usage by various ways. The most important surface current of this basin is Zayanderood River with 403 kilometers length which is originated from east slopes of Zagros mount and after draining of this basin area it will enter into Gaavkhooni pond. The existence of various sources and consumptions of water in Zayanderood basin, water transfer of the other basin areas into this basin, of course the contradiction between the upper and lower beneficiaries, the existence of worthwhile natural ecosystems such as Gaavkhooni swamp in this basin area and finally, the drought condition and lack of water in this area all necessitate the existence of comprehensive management of water sources in this central basin area of Iran as this method is a kind of management which considers the development and the management of water sources as an equilibrant way to increase the economical and social benefits. In this study, it is tried to survey the network of surface water sources of basin in upper and lower sections; at the most, according to the difficulties and deficiencies of an efficient management of water sources in this basin area, besides the difficulties of water draining and the destructive phenomenon of flood-water, the appropriate guidelines according to the region conditions are presented in order to prevent the deviation of water in upper sections and development of regions in lower sections of Zayanderood dam.

Traditionally Sustainability Analyses of Hydraulic-Architectural Bridge Construction in Iran

Bridge is an architectural symbol in Iran as Badgir (wind catcher); fire temples and arch are vaults are such. Therefore, from the very old ages, construction of bridges in Iran has mixed with architecture, social customs, alms and charity and holiness. Since long ago, from Mad, Achaemenid, Parthian and Sassanid times which construction of bridges got an inseparable relation with social dependency and architecture, based on those dependency bridges and dams got holy names; as Dokhtar castle and Dokhtar bridges were constructed. This method continued even after Islam and whenever Iranians got free from political fights and the immunity of roads were established the bridge construction did also prospered. In ancient times bridge construction passes through it growing and completion process and in Sassanid time in some way it reached to the peak of art and glory; as after Islam especially during 4th. century (Arab calendar) it put behind a period of glory and in Safavid time it reached to an exceptional glory and magnificence by constructing glorious bridges on Zayandeh Roud River in Isfahan. Having a combined style and changeability into bridge barrier, some of these bridges develop into magnificent constructions. The sustainable structures, mentioned above, are constructed for various reasons as follows: connecting two sides of a river, storing water, controlling floods, using water energy to operate water windmills, making lanes of streams for farms- use, and building recreational places for people, etc. These studies carried in bridges reveals the fact that in construction and designing mentioned above, lots of technological factors have been taken into consideration such as exceeding floods in the rives, hydraulic and hydrology of the rivers and bridges, geology, foundation, structure, construction material, and adopting appropriate executing methods, all of which are being analyzed in this article.

The Effects of Human Activity in Yasuj Area on the Health of Stream City

The Yasuj city stream named the Beshar supply water for different usages such as aquaculture farms , drinking, agricultural and industrial usages. Fish processing plants ,Agricultural farms, waste water of industrial zones and hospitals waste water which they are generate by human activity produce a considerable volume of effluent and when they are released in to the stream they can effect on the water quality and down stream aquatic systems. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of outflow effluent from different human activity and point and non point pollution sources on the water quality and health of the Beshar river next to Yasuj. Yasuj is the biggest and most important city in the Kohkiloye and Boyerahmad province . The Beshar River is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems in the upstream of the Karun watershed in south of Iran which is affected by point and non point pollutant sources . This study was done in order to evaluate the effects of human activities on the water quality and health of the Beshar river. This river is approximately 190 km in length and situated at the geographical positions of 51° 20' to 51° 48' E and 30° 18' to 30° 52' N it is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems of Kohkiloye and Boyerahmad province in south-west Iran. In this research project, five study stations were selected to examine water pollution in the Beshar River systems. Human activity is now one of the most important factors affecting on hydrology and water quality of the Beshar river. Humans use large amounts of resources to sustain various standards of living, although measures of sustainability are highly variable depending on how sustainability is defined. The Beshar river ecosystems are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to human activities. The water samples were analyzed, then some important water quality parameters such as pH, dissolve oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD5), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Total Suspended Solids (TDS),Turbidity, Temperature, Nitrates (NO3) and Phosphates (PO4) were estimated at the two stations. The results show a downward trend in the water quality at the down stream of the city. The amounts of BOD5,COD,TSS,T,Turbidity, NO3 and PO4 in the down stream stations were considerably more than the station 1. By contrast the amounts of DO in the down stream stations were less than to the station 1. However when effluent discharge consequence of human activities are released into the Beshar river near the city, the quality of river are decreases and the environmental problems of the river during the next years are predicted to rise.

Thailand National Biodiversity Database System with webMathematica and Google Earth

National Biodiversity Database System (NBIDS) has been developed for collecting Thai biodiversity data. The goal of this project is to provide advanced tools for querying, analyzing, modeling, and visualizing patterns of species distribution for researchers and scientists. NBIDS data record two types of datasets: biodiversity data and environmental data. Biodiversity data are specie presence data and species status. The attributes of biodiversity data can be further classified into two groups: universal and projectspecific attributes. Universal attributes are attributes that are common to all of the records, e.g. X/Y coordinates, year, and collector name. Project-specific attributes are attributes that are unique to one or a few projects, e.g., flowering stage. Environmental data include atmospheric data, hydrology data, soil data, and land cover data collecting by using GLOBE protocols. We have developed webbased tools for data entry. Google Earth KML and ArcGIS were used as tools for map visualization. webMathematica was used for simple data visualization and also for advanced data analysis and visualization, e.g., spatial interpolation, and statistical analysis. NBIDS will be used by park rangers at Khao Nan National Park, and researchers.

Radar Hydrology: New Z/R Relationships for Klang River Basin Malaysia based on Rainfall Classification

The use of radar in Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) for radar-rainfall measurement is significantly beneficial. Radar has advantages in terms of high spatial and temporal condition in rainfall measurement and also forecasting. In Malaysia, radar application in QPE is still new and needs to be explored. This paper focuses on the Z/R derivation works of radarrainfall estimation based on rainfall classification. The works developed new Z/R relationships for Klang River Basin in Selangor area for three different general classes of rain events, namely low (10mm/hr, 30mm/hr) and also on more specific rain types during monsoon seasons. Looking at the high potential of Doppler radar in QPE, the newly formulated Z/R equations will be useful in improving the measurement of rainfall for any hydrological application, especially for flood forecasting.

Prediction of Basic Wind Speed for Ayeyarwady

Abstract— The paper presents a preliminary study on modeling and estimation of basic wind speed ( extreme wind gusts ) for the consideration of vulnerability and design of building in Ayeyarwady Region. The establishment of appropriate design wind speeds is a critical step towards the calculation of design wind loads for structures. In this paper the extreme value analysis of this prediction work is based on the anemometer data (1970-2009) maintained by the department of meteorology and hydrology of Pathein. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are used to derive formulas for estimating 3-second gusts from recorded data (10-minute sustained mean wind speeds).