Abstract: Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.
Abstract: This article analyses the relationship between
sovereign credit risk rating and gross domestic product for Central
and Eastern European Countries for the period 1996 – 2010. In order
to study the metioned relationship, we have used a numerical
transformation of the risk qualification, thus: we marked 0 the lowest
risk; then, we went on ascending, with a pace of 5, up to the score of
355 corresponding to the maximum risk. The used method of analysis
is that of econometric modelling with EViews 7.0. programme. This
software allows the analysis of data into a pannel type system,
involving a mix of periods of time and series of data for different
entities. The main conclusion of the work is the one confirming the
negative relationship between the sovereign credit risk and the gross
domestic product for the Central European and Eastern countries
during the reviewed period.
Abstract: Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, is one of the
densely populated cities in the world. Due to rapid urbanization 60%
of its population lives in slum and squatter settlements. The reason
behind this poverty is low economic growth, inequitable distribution
of income, unequal distribution of productive assets, unemployment
and underemployment, high rate of population growth, low level of
human resource development, natural disasters, and limited access to
public services. Along with poverty, creating pressure on urban land,
shelter, plots, open spaces this creates environmental and ecological
degradation. These constraints are mostly resulted from the failures
of the government policies and measures and only Government can
solve this problem. This is now prime time to establish planning and
environmental management policy and sustainable urban
development for the city and for the urban slum dwellers which are
free from eviction, criminals, rent seekers and other miscreants.
Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to investigate thelong-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run.Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause strongerimpacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries.The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.
Abstract: The paper discusses European Lifelong Learning policy in the European enlargement to the Balkan. The European Lifelong Learning policy with Human Capital approach is researched in the country case of Macedonia. The paper argues that Human Capital approach focusing on instrumental and economic importance of learning for employability and economic growth needs to be complemented with Capability Approach for intrinsic and noneconomic needs of learning among the ethnic minorities. The paper identifies two dimensions of importance – minority languages and civic education – that the Capability Approach may develop to guarantee equal opportunities to all to benefit from European educational and lifelong learning development and to build an inclusive and socially just democracy in Macedonia.
Abstract: This study examines causal link between energy use and economic growth for five South Asian countries over period 1971-2006. Panel cointegration, ECM and FMOLS are applied for short and long run estimates. In short run unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption is found, but not vice versa. In long run one percent increase in per capita energy consumption tend to decrease 0.13 percent per capita GDP. i.e. Energy use discourage economic growth. This short and long run relationship indicate energy shortage crisis in South Asia due to increased energy use coupled with insufficient energy supply. Beside this long run estimated coefficient of error term suggest that short term adjustment to equilibrium are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium. Moreover, per capita energy consumption is responsive to adjustment back to equilibrium and it takes 59 years approximately. It specifies long run feedback between both variables.
Abstract: The proposed paper examines strategies whose aim is
to counter the all too often sighted process of abandonment that
characterizes contemporary cities. The city of Nicosia in Cyprus is
used as an indicative case study, whereby several recent projects are
presented as capitalizing on traditional cultural assets to revive the
downtown. The reuse of existing building stock as museums,
performing arts centers and theaters but also as in the form of various
housing typologies is geared to strengthen the ranks of local residents
and to spur economic growth. Unlike the examples from the 1960s,
the architecture of more recent adaptive reuse for urban regeneration
seems to be geared in reinforcing a connection to the city where the
buildings often reflect the characteristics of their urban context.
Abstract: Saudi Arabia in recent years has seen drastic increase
in traffic related crashes. With population of over 29 million, Saudi
Arabia is considered as a fast growing and emerging economy. The
rapid population increase and economic growth has resulted in rapid
expansion of transportation infrastructure, which has led to increase
in road crashes. Saudi Ministry of Interior reported more than 7,000
people killed and 68,000 injured in 2011 ranking Saudi Arabia to be
one of the worst worldwide in traffic safety. The traffic safety issues
in the country also result in distress to road users and cause and
economic loss exceeding 3.7 billion Euros annually. Keeping this in
view, the researchers in Saudi Arabia are investigating ways to
improve traffic safety conditions in the country. This paper presents a
multilevel approach to collect traffic safety related data required to do
traffic safety studies in the region. Two highway corridors including
King Fahd Highway 39 kilometre and Gulf Cooperation Council
Highway 42 kilometre long connecting the cities of Dammam and
Khobar were selected as a study area. Traffic data collected included
traffic counts, crash data, travel time data, and speed data. The
collected data was analysed using geographic information system to
evaluate any correlation. Further research is needed to investigate the
effectiveness of traffic safety related data when collected in a
concerted effort.
Abstract: There are three distinct stages in the evolution of
economic thought, namely:
1. in the first stage, the major concern was to accelerate
economic growth with increased availability of material
goods, especially in developing economies with very low
living standards, because poverty eradication meant faster
economic growth.
2. in the second stage, economists made distinction between
growth and development. Development was seen as going
beyond economic growth, and bringing certain changes in
the structure of the economy with more equitable
distribution of the benefits of growth, with the growth
coming automatic and sustained.
3. the third stage is now reached. Our concern is now with
“sustainable development", that is, development not only
for the present but also of the future.
Thus the focus changed from “sustained growth" to “sustained
development". Sustained development brings to the fore the long
term relationship between the ecology and economic development.
Since the creation of UNEP in 1972 it has worked for
development without destruction for environmentally sound and
sustained development. It was realised that the environment cannot
be viewed in a vaccum, it is not separate from development, nor is it
competing. It suggested for the integration of the environment with
development whereby ecological factors enter development planning,
socio-economic policies, cost-benefit analysis, trade, technology
transfer, waste management, educational and other specific areas.
Industrialisation has contributed to the growth of economy of
several countries. It has improved the standards of living of its people
and provided benefits to the society. It has also created in the process
great environmental problems like climate change, forest destruction
and denudation, soil erosion and desertification etc.
On the other hand, industry has provided jobs and improved the
prospects of wealth for the industrialists. The working class
communities had to simply put up with the high levels of pollution in
order to keep up their jobs and also to save their income.
There are many roots of the environmental problem. They may be
political, economic, cultural and technological conditions of the
modern society. The experts concede that industrial growth lies
somewhere close to the heart of the matter. Therefore, the objective
of this paper is not to document all roots of an environmental crisis
but rather to discuss the effects of industrial growth and
development.
We have come to the conclusion that although public intervention
is often unnecessary to ensure that perfectly competitive markets will
function in society-s best interests, such intervention is necessary
when firms or consumers pollute.
Abstract: This study utilizes the panel vector error correction
model (PVECM) to examine the relationship among corruption,
economic growth, and income inequality experienced within ten Asian
countries over the 1995 to 2010 period. According to the empirical
results, we do not support the common perception that corruption
decreases economic growth. On the contrary, we found that corruption
increases economic growth. Meanwhile, an increase in economic
growth will cause an increase in income inequality, although the effect
is insignificant. Similarly, an increase in income inequality will cause
an increase in economic growth but a decrease in corruption, although
the effect is also insignificant.
Abstract: Infrastructure investments are important in developing
countries, it will not only help to foster the economic growth of a
nation, but it will also act as a platform in which new forms of
partnership and collaboration can be developed mainly in East Asian
countries. Since the last two decades, many infrastructure projects
had been completed through build-operate-transfer (BOT) type of
procurement. The developments of BOT have attracted participation
of local and foreign private sector investor to secure funding and to
deliver projects on time, within the budget and to the required
specifications. Private sectors are preferred by the government in
East Asia to participate in BOT projects due to lack of public
funding. The finding has resulted that the private sector or promoter
of the BOT projects is exposed to multiple risks which have been
discussed in this paper. Effective risk management methods and
good managerial skills are required in ensuring the success of the
project. The review indicated that mitigation measures should be
employed by the promoter throughout the concession period and
support from the host government is also required in ensuring the
success of the BOT project.
Abstract: Limited competition has been a serious concern in infrastructure procurement. Importantly, however, there are normally a number of potential bidders initially showing interest in proposed projects. This paper focuses on tackling the question why these initially interested bidders fade out. An empirical problem is that no bids of fading-out firms are observable. They could decide not to enter the process at the beginning of the tendering or may be technically disqualified at any point in the selection process. The paper applies the double selection model to procurement data from road development projects in developing countries and shows that competition ends up restricted, because bidders are self-selective and auctioneers also tend to limit participation depending on the size of contracts.Limited competition would likely lead to high infrastructure procurement costs, threatening fiscal sustainability and economic growth.
Abstract: While import-substituting industrialization policy
constitute the basis for the industrialization strategies of the 1960s
and 1970s in Turkey, this policy was no longer sustainable by the
1980s. For this reason, export-oriented industrialization policy was
adopted with the decisions taken on January 24, 1980. In other words,
the post-1980 period, Turkey's economy has adopted outwardoriented
industrialization strategy.
In this study, it is aimed to analyze the effect of the change in
economic structure on foreign trade with the transformation of
foreign trade and industrialization policies in the post-1980 period. In
this respect, in order to analyze the relationship between import,
export and economic growth by using variables of the 1960-2011
period, Chow test was applied. In the analysis the reason for using
Chow test is whether there is any difference in economic terms
between import-substituting industrialization policy applied in the
1960-1980 period and the 1981-2011 period during which exportoriented
industrialization policy was applied as a result of the
structural transformation.
Abstract: This study aims at investigating factors in research
and development (R&D) growth and exploring the role of R&D
management in enhancing social innovation and productivity
improvement in Iran-s industrial sector. It basically explores the
common types of R&D activities and the industries which benefited
the most from active R&D units in Iran. The researchers generated
qualitative analyses obtained from primary and secondary data.
The primary data have been retrieved through interviews with five
key players (Managing Director, Internal Manager, General Manager,
Executive Manager, and Project Manager) in the industrial sector.
The secondary data acquired from an investigation on Mazandaran, a
province of northern Iran. The findings highlight Iran-s focuses of R
& D on cost reduction and upgrading productivity. Industries that
have benefited the most from active R&D units are metallic,
machinery and equipment design, and automotive.
We rank order the primary effects of R&D on productivity
improvement as follows, industry improvement, economic growth,
using professional human resources, generating productivity and
creativity culture, creating a competitive and innovative environment,
and increasing people-s knowledge.
Generally, low budget dedication and insufficient supply of highly
skilled scientists and engineers are two important obstacles for R&D
in Iran. Whereas, R&D has resulted in improvement in Iranian
society, transfer of contemporary knowledge into the international
market is still lacking.
Abstract: The fast technology and economic growth in China has
attracted global attention in its tourism development. This study makes
an effort on investigating China-s online tourism market and the
Chinese online travelers- perceptions of hotel websites. The findings
are expected to better understand Chinese customers- online
preference and identified the differences among online travelers from
different regions in the country. Empirical findings showed online
reservation information is the most important factor to Chinese
customers, and tourists from different regions of China have
perception difference on user-friendly factor. The findings benefit
hoteliers from understanding their websites development and
formulating more appropriate online strategies to meet the
requirements of Chinese travelers.
Abstract: The study investigates the causal link between trade
openness and economic growth for four South Asian countries for
period 1972-1985 and 1986-2007 to examine the scenario before and
after the implementation of SAARC. Panel cointegration and
FMOLS techniques are employed for short run and long run
estimates. In 1972-85 short run unidirectional causality from GDP to
openness is found whereas, in 1986-2007 there exists bi-directional
causality between GDP and openness. The long run elasticity
magnitude between GDP and openness contains negative sign in
1972-85 which shows that there exists long run negative relationship.
While in time period 1986-2007 the elasticity magnitude has positive
sign that indicates positive causation between GDP and openness. So
it can be concluded that after the implementation of SAARC overall
situation of selected countries got better. Also long run coefficient of
error term suggests that short term equilibrium adjustments are driven
by adjustment back to long run equilibrium.
Abstract: The objective of this study is to examine the validity of Wagner-s law and relationship between economic growth, population and export for Pakistan. The ARDL Bounds cointegration and ECM are utilized for long and short run equilibrium for the period of 1972-2007. Population has considerable role in an economy and exports are the main source to raise the GDP. With the increase in GDP, the government expenditures may or may not increase. The empirical results indicate that the Wagner-s Law does hold, as economic growth is significantly and positively correlated with government expenditures. However, population and exports have also significant and positive impact on government expenditures both in short and long run. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 70.82 percent within a year.
Abstract: South Africa is facing a crisis with not being able to produce enough graduates in the scarce skills areas to sustain economic growth. The crisis is fuelled by a school system that does not produce enough potential students with Mathematics, Accounting and Science. Since the introduction of the new school curriculum in 2008, there is no longer an option to take pure maths on a standard grade level. Instead, only two mathematical subjects are offered: pure maths (which is on par with higher grade maths) and mathematical literacy. It is compulsory to take one or the other. As a result, lees student finishes Grade 12 with pure mathematics every year. This national problem needs urgent attention if South Africa is to make any headway in critical skills development as mathematics is a gateway to scarce skills professions. Higher education institutions initiated several initiatives in an attempt to address the above, including preparatory courses, bridging programmes and extended curricula with foundation provisions. In view of the above, and government policy directives to broaden access in the scarce skills areas to increase student throughput, foundation provision was introduced for Commerce and Information Technology programmes at the Vaal Triangle Campus (VTC) of North-West University (NWU) in 2010. Students enrolling for extended programmes do not comply with the minimum prerequisites for the normal programmes. The question then arises as to whether these programmes have the intended impact? This paper reports the results of a two year longitudinal study, tracking the first year academic achievement of the two cohorts of enrolments since 2010. The results provide valuable insight into the structuring of an extended programme and its potential impact.
Abstract: Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main
essential with which an economy is managed and run. While
planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to
be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual
collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue
collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial
estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the
whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic
indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long
term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and
economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the
study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration
and error correction mechanism on three different models for the
period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has
a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget
deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.
Abstract: The essence of the 21st century is knowledge economy. Knowledge has become the key resource of economic growth and social development. Construction industry is no exception. Because of the characteristic of complexity, project manager can't depend only on information management. The only way to improve the level of construction project management is to set up a kind of effective knowledge accumulation mechanism. This paper first introduced the IFC standard and the concept of ontology. Then put forward the construction method of the architectural engineering domain ontology based on IFC. And finally build up the concepts, properties and the relationship between the concepts of the ontology. The deficiency of this paper is also pointed out.