Abstract: In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.
A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.
Abstract: Most routing protocols (DSR, AODV etc.) that have
been designed for wireless adhoc networks incorporate the broadcasting
operation in their route discovery scheme. Probabilistic broadcasting
techniques have been developed to optimize the broadcast operation
which is otherwise very expensive in terms of the redundancy
and the traffic it generates. In this paper we have explored percolation
theory to gain a different perspective on probabilistic broadcasting
schemes which have been actively researched in the recent years.
This theory has helped us estimate the value of broadcast probability
in a wireless adhoc network as a function of the size of the network.
We also show that, operating at those optimal values of broadcast
probability there is at least 25-30% reduction in packet regeneration
during successful broadcasting.
Abstract: this paper presents a multi-context recurrent network for time series analysis. While simple recurrent network (SRN) are very popular among recurrent neural networks, they still have some shortcomings in terms of learning speed and accuracy that need to be addressed. To solve these problems, we proposed a multi-context recurrent network (MCRN) with three different learning algorithms. The performance of this network is evaluated on some real-world application such as handwriting recognition and energy load forecasting. We study the performance of this network and we compared it to a very well established SRN. The experimental results showed that MCRN is very efficient and very well suited to time series analysis and its applications.
Abstract: This paper presents a new approach using Combined Artificial Neural Network (CANN) module for daily peak load forecasting. Five different computational techniques –Constrained method, Unconstrained method, Evolutionary Programming (EP), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) – have been used to identify the CANN module for peak load forecasting. In this paper, a set of neural networks has been trained with different architecture and training parameters. The networks are trained and tested for the actual load data of Chennai city (India). A set of better trained conventional ANNs are selected to develop a CANN module using different algorithms instead of using one best conventional ANN. Obtained results using CANN module confirm its validity.
Abstract: A feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural
Network (ANN) model has been used to forecast the occurrences of
wastewater overflows in a combined sewerage reticulation system.
This approach was tested to evaluate its applicability as a method
alternative to the common practice of developing a complete
conceptual, mathematical hydrological-hydraulic model for the
sewerage system to enable such forecasts. The ANN approach
obviates the need for a-priori understanding and representation of the
underlying hydrological hydraulic phenomena in mathematical terms
but enables learning the characteristics of a sewer overflow from the
historical data.
The performance of the standard feed-forward, back-propagation
of error algorithm was enhanced by a modified data normalizing
technique that enabled the ANN model to extrapolate into the
territory that was unseen by the training data. The algorithm and the
data normalizing method are presented along with the ANN model
output results that indicate a good accuracy in the forecasted sewer
overflow rates. However, it was revealed that the accurate
forecasting of the overflow rates are heavily dependent on the
availability of a real-time flow monitoring at the overflow structure
to provide antecedent flow rate data. The ability of the ANN to
forecast the overflow rates without the antecedent flow rates (as is
the case with traditional conceptual reticulation models) was found to
be quite poor.
Abstract: Load forecasting has become in recent years one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering. Most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence neural network techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests. This article presents the development of an ANN-based short-term load forecasting model with improved generalization technique for the Regional Power Control Center of Saudi Electricity Company, Western Operation Area (SEC-WOA). The proposed ANN is trained with weather-related data and historical electric load-related data using the data from the calendar years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 for training. The model tested for one week at five different seasons, typically, winter, spring, summer, Ramadan and fall seasons, and the mean absolute average error for one hour-ahead load forecasting found 1.12%.
Abstract: Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM)
has developed into a popular scheme for wideband digital
communications used in consumer applications such as digital broadcasting, wireless networking and broadband internet access. In
the OFDM system, carrier frequency offset (CFO) causes intercarrier
interference (ICI) which significantly degrades the system error performance. In this paper we provide an exact evaluation method for error performance analysis of arbitrary 2-D modulation OFDM systems with CFO, and analyze the effect of CFO on error performance.
Abstract: IP multicasting is a key technology for many existing and emerging applications on the Internet. Furthermore, with increasing popularity of wireless devices and mobile equipment, it is necessary to determine the best way to provide this service in a wireless environment. IETF Mobile IP, that provides mobility for hosts in IP networks, proposes two approaches for mobile multicasting, namely, remote subscription (MIP-RS) and bi-directional tunneling (MIP-BT). In MIP-RS, a mobile host re-subscribes to the multicast groups each time it moves to a new foreign network. MIP-RS suffers from serious packet losses while mobile host handoff occurs. In MIP-BT, mobile hosts send and receive multicast packets by way of their home agents (HAs), using Mobile IP tunnels. Therefore, it suffers from inefficient routing and wastage of system resources. In this paper, we propose a protocol called Mobile Multicast support using Old Foreign Agent (MMOFA) for Mobile Hosts. MMOFA is derived from MIP-RS and with the assistance of Mobile host's Old foreign agent, routes the missing datagrams due to handoff in adjacent network via tunneling. Also, we studied the performance of the proposed protocol by simulation under ns-2.27. The results demonstrate that MMOFA has optimal routing efficiency and low delivery cost, as compared to other approaches.
Abstract: This paper presents performance comparison of three estimation techniques used for peak load forecasting in power systems. The three optimum estimation techniques are, genetic algorithms (GA), least error squares (LS) and, least absolute value filtering (LAVF). The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Different forecasting models are considered. Actual recorded data is used to perform the study. The performance of the above three optimal estimation techniques is examined. Advantages of each algorithms are reported and discussed.
Abstract: The study describes chitosan membrane platform
modified with nanostructure pattern which using nanotechnology to
fabricate. The cell-substrate interaction between neuro-2a neuroblasts
cell lines and chitosan membrane (flat, nanostructure and
nanostructure pattern types) was investigated. The adhered
morphology of neuro-2a cells depends on the topography of chitosan
surface. We have found that neuro-2a showed different morphogenesis
when cells adhered on flat and nanostructure chitosan membrane. The
cell projected area of neuro-2a on flat chitosan membrane is larger
than on nanostructure chitosan membrane. In addition, neuro-2a cells
preferred to adhere on flat chitosan surface region than on
nanostructure chitosan membrane to immobilize and differentiation.
The experiment suggests surface topography can be used as a critical
mechanism to isolate group of neuro-2a to a particular rectangle area
on chitosan membrane. Our finding will provide a platform to take
patch clamp to record electrophysiological behavior about neurons in
vitro in the future.
Abstract: Technology changes have been acknowledged as a
critical factor in determining competitiveness of organization. Under
such environment, the right anticipation of technology change has
been of huge importance in strategic planning. To monitor technology
change, technology forecasting (TF) is frequently utilized. In
academic perspective, TF has received great attention for a long time.
However, few researches have been conducted to provide overview of
the TF literature. Even though some studies deals with review of TF
research, they generally focused on type and characteristics of various
TF, so hardly provides information about patterns of TF research and
which TF method is used in certain technology industry. Accordingly,
this study profile developments in and patterns of scholarly research in
TF over time. Also, this study investigates which technology
industries have used certain TF method and identifies their
relationships. This study will help in understanding TF research trend
and their application area.
Abstract: Rapid prototyping (RP) techniques are a group of
advanced manufacturing processes that can produce custom made
objects directly from computer data such as Computer Aided Design
(CAD), Computed Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance
Imaging (MRI) data. Using RP fabrication techniques, constructs
with controllable and complex internal architecture with appropriate
mechanical properties can be achieved. One of the attractive and
promising utilization of RP techniques is related to tissue engineering
(TE) scaffold fabrication. Tissue engineering scaffold is a 3D
construction that acts as a template for tissue regeneration. Although
several conventional techniques such as solvent casting and gas
forming are utilized in scaffold fabrication; these processes show
poor interconnectivity and uncontrollable porosity of the produced
scaffolds. So, RP techniques become the best alternative fabrication
methods of TE scaffolds. This paper reviews the current state of the
art in the area of tissue engineering scaffolds fabrication using
advanced RP processes, as well as the current limitations and future
trends in scaffold fabrication RP techniques.
Abstract: A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.
Abstract: Surface metrology with image processing is a challenging task having wide applications in industry. Surface roughness can be evaluated using texture classification approach. Important aspect here is appropriate selection of features that characterize the surface. We propose an effective combination of features for multi-scale and multi-directional analysis of engineering surfaces. The features include standard deviation, kurtosis and the Canny edge detector. We apply the method by analyzing the surfaces with Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Dual-Tree Complex Wavelet Transform (DT-CWT). We used Canberra distance metric for similarity comparison between the surface classes. Our database includes the surface textures manufactured by three machining processes namely Milling, Casting and Shaping. The comparative study shows that DT-CWT outperforms DWT giving correct classification performance of 91.27% with Canberra distance metric.
Abstract: Early supplier involvement (ESI) benefits new
product development projects several ways. Nevertheless, many castuser
companies do not know the advantages of ESI and therefore do
not utilize it. This paper presents reasons why to utilize ESI in
casting industry and how that can be done. Further, this paper
presents advantages and challenges related to ESI in casting industry,
and introduces a Casting-Network Collaboration Model. The model
presents practices for companies to build advantageous collaborative
relationships. More detailed, the model describes three levels for
company-network relationships in casting industry with different
degrees of collaboration, and requirements for operating in each
level. In our research, ESI was found to influence, for example, on
project time, component cost, and quality. In addition, challenges
related to ESI, such as, a lack of mutual trust and unawareness about
the advantages were found. Our research approach was a case study
including four cases.
Abstract: To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.
Abstract: In a product development process, understanding the functional behavior of the system, the role of components in achieving functions and failure modes if components/subsystem fails its required function will help develop appropriate design validation and verification program for reliability assessment. The integration of these three issues will help design and reliability engineers in identifying weak spots in design and planning future actions and testing program. This case study demonstrate the advantage of unascertained theory described in the subjective cognition uncertainty, and then applies blind number (BN) theory in describing the uncertainty of the mechanical system failure process and the same time used the same theory in bringing out another mechanical reliability system model. The practical calculations shows the BN Model embodied the characters of simply, small account of calculation but betterforecasting capability, which had the value of macroscopic discussion to some extent.
Abstract: The photonic component industry is a highly
innovative industry with a large value chain. In order to ensure the
growth of the industry much effort must be devoted to road mapping
activities. In such activities demand and price evolution forecasting
tools can prove quite useful in order to help in the roadmap
refinement and update process. This paper attempts to provide useful
guidelines in roadmapping of optical components and considers two
models based on diffusion theory and the extended learning curve for
demand and price evolution forecasting.
Abstract: Herein, the organic semiconductor methyl orange
(MO), is investigated for the first time for its electronic applications.
For this purpose, Al/MO/n-Si heterojunction is fabricated through
economical cheap and simple “drop casting” technique. The currentvoltage
(I-V) measurements of the device are made at room
temperature under dark conditions. The I-V characteristics of
Al/MO/n-Si junction exhibits asymmetrical and rectifying behavior
that confirms the formation of diode. The diode parameters such as
rectification ratio (RR), turn on voltage (Vturn on), reverse saturation
current (I0), ideality factor (n), barrier height ( b
f ), series resistance
(Rs) and shunt resistance (Rsh) are determined from I-V curves using
Schottky equations. These values of these parameters are also
extracted and verified by applying Cheung’s functions. The
conduction mechanisms are explained from the forward bias I-V
characteristics using the power law.
Abstract: Alkali treated oil palm empty fruit bunch (EFB) fibres
(TEFBF) and untreated EFBF fibers (UEFBF) were incorporated in
polypropylene (PP) with and without malic anhydride grafted PP
(MAPP) and magnesium hydroxide as flame retardant (FR) to
produce TEFBF-PP and UEFBF-PP composites by the melt casting
method. The composites were characterized by mechanical and
burning tests along with a scanning electron microscope and Fourier
transform infrared spectroscopy. The significant improvement in
flexural modulus (133%) and flame retardant property (60%) of
TEFBF-PP composite with MAPP and FR is observed. The improved
mechanical property is discussed by the development of encapsulated
textures.