A Review on Technology Forecasting Methods and Their Application Area
Technology changes have been acknowledged as a
critical factor in determining competitiveness of organization. Under
such environment, the right anticipation of technology change has
been of huge importance in strategic planning. To monitor technology
change, technology forecasting (TF) is frequently utilized. In
academic perspective, TF has received great attention for a long time.
However, few researches have been conducted to provide overview of
the TF literature. Even though some studies deals with review of TF
research, they generally focused on type and characteristics of various
TF, so hardly provides information about patterns of TF research and
which TF method is used in certain technology industry. Accordingly,
this study profile developments in and patterns of scholarly research in
TF over time. Also, this study investigates which technology
industries have used certain TF method and identifies their
relationships. This study will help in understanding TF research trend
and their application area.
[1] S. Mishra, S. Deshmukh, P. Vrat, Matching of technological forecasting
technique to a technology, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 69 (2002)
1-27.
[2] H. Ernst, The use of patent data for technological forecasting: the diffusion
of CNC-technology in the machine tool industry, Small Business
Economics, 9 (1997) 361-381.
[3] A. Firat, W. Woon, S. Madnick, Technological Forecasting-A Review, in,
Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, 2008.
[4] S. Jun, A Forecasting Model for Technological Trend Using Unsupervised
Learning, Database Theory and Application, Bio-Science and
Bio-Technology, (2011) 51-60.
[5] A.L. Porter, S.W. Cunningham, J. Banks, A.T. Roper, T.W. Mason, F.A.
Rossini, Forecasting and management of technology, Wiley, 2011.
[6] H. Dransfeld, J. Pemberton, G. Jacobs, Quantifying weighted expert
opinion: the future of interactive television and retailing, Technol.
Forecast. Soc. Chang., 63 (2000) 81-90.
[7] S. Jun, S.S. Park, D.S. Jang, Technology forecasting using matrix map and
patent clustering, Industrial Management & Data Systems, 112 (2012)
786-807.
[8] M. Fattori, G. Pedrazzi, R. Turra, Text mining applied to patent mapping:
a practical business case, World Patent Information, 25 (2003) 335-342.
[9] S. Lee, B. Yoon, Y. Park, An approach to discovering new technology
opportunities: Keyword-based patent map approach, Technovation, 29
(2009) 481-497.
[10] M.S. Slocum, C.O. Lundberg, Technology Forecasting: from emotional to
empirical, Creativity and Innovation Management, 10 (2001) 139-152.
[11] J.P. Martino, A review of selected recent advances in technological
forecasting, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 70 (2003) 719-733.
[12] B. Johnson, TreeViz: treemap visualization of hierarchically structured
information, in: Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on Human
factors in computing systems, ACM, 1992, pp. 369-370.
[13] L. Shvartz, R. Horesh, B. Raz, The logistic envelope approximation in
technological forecasting, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 19 (1981)
283-289
[1] S. Mishra, S. Deshmukh, P. Vrat, Matching of technological forecasting
technique to a technology, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 69 (2002)
1-27.
[2] H. Ernst, The use of patent data for technological forecasting: the diffusion
of CNC-technology in the machine tool industry, Small Business
Economics, 9 (1997) 361-381.
[3] A. Firat, W. Woon, S. Madnick, Technological Forecasting-A Review, in,
Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, 2008.
[4] S. Jun, A Forecasting Model for Technological Trend Using Unsupervised
Learning, Database Theory and Application, Bio-Science and
Bio-Technology, (2011) 51-60.
[5] A.L. Porter, S.W. Cunningham, J. Banks, A.T. Roper, T.W. Mason, F.A.
Rossini, Forecasting and management of technology, Wiley, 2011.
[6] H. Dransfeld, J. Pemberton, G. Jacobs, Quantifying weighted expert
opinion: the future of interactive television and retailing, Technol.
Forecast. Soc. Chang., 63 (2000) 81-90.
[7] S. Jun, S.S. Park, D.S. Jang, Technology forecasting using matrix map and
patent clustering, Industrial Management & Data Systems, 112 (2012)
786-807.
[8] M. Fattori, G. Pedrazzi, R. Turra, Text mining applied to patent mapping:
a practical business case, World Patent Information, 25 (2003) 335-342.
[9] S. Lee, B. Yoon, Y. Park, An approach to discovering new technology
opportunities: Keyword-based patent map approach, Technovation, 29
(2009) 481-497.
[10] M.S. Slocum, C.O. Lundberg, Technology Forecasting: from emotional to
empirical, Creativity and Innovation Management, 10 (2001) 139-152.
[11] J.P. Martino, A review of selected recent advances in technological
forecasting, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 70 (2003) 719-733.
[12] B. Johnson, TreeViz: treemap visualization of hierarchically structured
information, in: Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on Human
factors in computing systems, ACM, 1992, pp. 369-370.
[13] L. Shvartz, R. Horesh, B. Raz, The logistic envelope approximation in
technological forecasting, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 19 (1981)
283-289
@article{"International Journal of Mechanical, Industrial and Aerospace Sciences:52059", author = "Daekook Kang and Wooseok Jang and Hyeonjeong Lee and Hyun Joung No", title = "A Review on Technology Forecasting Methods and Their Application Area", abstract = "Technology changes have been acknowledged as a
critical factor in determining competitiveness of organization. Under
such environment, the right anticipation of technology change has
been of huge importance in strategic planning. To monitor technology
change, technology forecasting (TF) is frequently utilized. In
academic perspective, TF has received great attention for a long time.
However, few researches have been conducted to provide overview of
the TF literature. Even though some studies deals with review of TF
research, they generally focused on type and characteristics of various
TF, so hardly provides information about patterns of TF research and
which TF method is used in certain technology industry. Accordingly,
this study profile developments in and patterns of scholarly research in
TF over time. Also, this study investigates which technology
industries have used certain TF method and identifies their
relationships. This study will help in understanding TF research trend
and their application area.", keywords = "Technology forecasting, technology industry, TF
trend, technology trajectory.", volume = "7", number = "4", pages = "565-5", }