Abstract: Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.
Abstract: This paper proposes an effective algorithm approach to hybrid control systems combining fuzzy logic and conventional control techniques of controlling the speed of induction motor assumed to operate in high-performance drives environment. The introducing of fuzzy logic in the control systems helps to achieve good dynamical response, disturbance rejection and low sensibility to parameter variations and external influences. Some fundamentals of the fuzzy logic control are preliminary illustrated. The developed control algorithm is robust, efficient and simple. It also assures precise trajectory tracking with the prescribed dynamics. Experimental results have shown excellent tracking performance of the proposed control system, and have convincingly demonstrated the validity and the usefulness of the hybrid fuzzy controller in high-performance drives with parameter and load uncertainties. Satisfactory performance was observed for most reference tracks.
Abstract: Process capability index Cpk is the most widely
used index in making managerial decisions since it provides bounds
on the process yield for normally distributed processes. However,
existent methods for assessing process performance which
constructed by statistical inference may unfortunately lead to fine
results, because uncertainties exist in most real-world applications.
Thus, this study adopts fuzzy inference to deal with testing of Cpk .
A brief score is obtained for assessing a supplier’s process instead of
a severe evaluation.
Abstract: The three-time-scale plant model of a wind power
generator, including a wind turbine, a flexible vertical shaft, a Variable
Inertia Flywheel (VIF) module, an Active Magnetic Bearing (AMB)
unit and the applied wind sequence, is constructed. In order to make
the wind power generator be still able to operate as the spindle speed
exceeds its rated speed, the VIF is equipped so that the spindle speed
can be appropriately slowed down once any stronger wind field is
exerted. To prevent any potential damage due to collision by shaft
against conventional bearings, the AMB unit is proposed to regulate
the shaft position deviation. By singular perturbation order-reduction
technique, a lower-order plant model can be established for the
synthesis of feedback controller. Two major system parameter
uncertainties, an additive uncertainty and a multiplicative uncertainty,
are constituted by the wind turbine and the VIF respectively.
Frequency Shaping Sliding Mode Control (FSSMC) loop is proposed
to account for these uncertainties and suppress the unmodeled
higher-order plant dynamics. At last, the efficacy of the FSSMC is
verified by intensive computer and experimental simulations for
regulation on position deviation of the shaft and counter-balance of
unpredictable wind disturbance.
Abstract: The objective of this study was to improve our
understanding of vulnerability and environmental change; it's causes
basically show the intensity, its distribution and human-environment
effect on the ecosystem in the Apodi Valley Region, This paper is
identify, assess and classify vulnerability and environmental change
in the Apodi valley region using a combined approach of landscape
pattern and ecosystem sensitivity. Models were developed using the
following five thematic layers: Geology, geomorphology, soil,
vegetation and land use/cover, by means of a Geographical
Information Systems (GIS)-based on hydro-geophysical parameters.
In spite of the data problems and shortcomings, using ESRI-s ArcGIS
9.3 program, the vulnerability score, to classify, weight and combine
a number of 15 separate land cover classes to create a single indicator
provides a reliable measure of differences (6 classes) among regions
and communities that are exposed to similar ranges of hazards.
Indeed, the ongoing and active development of vulnerability
concepts and methods have already produced some tools to help
overcome common issues, such as acting in a context of high
uncertainties, taking into account the dynamics and spatial scale of
asocial-ecological system, or gathering viewpoints from different
sciences to combine human and impact-based approaches. Based on
this assessment, this paper proposes concrete perspectives and
possibilities to benefit from existing commonalities in the
construction and application of assessment tools.
Abstract: Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste
management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack
practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and
complexity of the mathematical models which include the
assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The
approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a
few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This
segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of
the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The
various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and
optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and
has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision
makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction
despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora
of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream
for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.
Abstract: The recycling of concrete, bricks and masonry rubble
as concrete aggregates is an important way to contribute to a
sustainable material flow. However, there are still various
uncertainties limiting the widespread use of Recycled Concrete
Aggregates (RCA). The fluctuations in the composition of grade
recycled aggregates and their influence on the properties of fresh and
hardened concrete are of particular concern regarding the use of
RCA. Most of problems occurring while using recycled concrete
aggregates as aggregates are due to higher porosity and hence higher
water absorption, lower mechanical strengths, residual impurities on
the surface of the RCA forming weaker bond between cement paste
and aggregate. So, the reuse of RCA is still limited. Efficient
polymer based treatment is proposed in order to reuse RCA easier.
The silicon-based polymer treatments of RCA were carried out and
were compared. This kind of treatment can improve the properties of
RCA such as the rate of water absorption on treated RCA is
significantly reduced.
Abstract: It is very important to determine reference temperature when convective temperature because it should be used to calculate the temperature potential. This paper deals with the development of a new method that can determine heat transfer coefficient and reference free stream temperature simultaneously, based on transient heat transfer experiments with using two narrow band thermo-tropic liquid crystals (TLC's). The method is validated through error analysis in terms of the random uncertainties in the measured temperatures. It is shown how the uncertainties in heat transfer coefficient and free stream temperature can be reduced. The general method described in this paper is applicable to many heat transfer models with unknown free stream temperature.
Abstract: Based on the fuzzy set theory this work develops two
adaptations of iterative methods that solve mathematical programming
problems with uncertainties in the objective function and in
the set of constraints. The first one uses the approach proposed by
Zimmermann to fuzzy linear programming problems as a basis and
the second one obtains cut levels and later maximizes the membership
function of fuzzy decision making using the bound search method.
We outline similarities between the two iterative methods studied.
Selected examples from the literature are presented to validate the
efficiency of the methods addressed.
Abstract: In this Letter, a class of impulsive switched cellular neural networks with time-varying delays is investigated. At the same time, parametric uncertainties assumed to be norm bounded are considered. By dividing the network state variables into subgroups according to the characters of the neural networks, some sufficient conditions guaranteeing exponential stability for all admissible parametric uncertainties are derived via constructing appropriate Lyapunov functional. One numerical example is provided to illustrate the validity of the main results obtained in this paper.
Abstract: An adaptive neural network controller for
autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) is presented in this paper.
The AUV model is highly nonlinear because of many factors, such as
hydrodynamic drag, damping, and lift forces, Coriolis and centripetal
forces, gravity and buoyancy forces, as well as forces from thruster.
In this regards, a nonlinear neural network is used to approximate the
nonlinear uncertainties of AUV dynamics, thus overcoming some
limitations of conventional controllers and ensure good performance.
The uniform ultimate boundedness of AUV tracking errors and the
stability of the proposed control system are guaranteed based on
Lyapunov theory. Numerical simulation studies for motion control of
an AUV are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the
proposed controller.
Abstract: This paper introduces a high-gain observer based state of charge(SOC) estimator for lithium-Ion batteries. The proposed SOC estimator has a high-gain observer(HGO) structure. The HGO scheme enhances the transient response speed and diminishes the effect of uncertainties. Furthermore, it guarantees that the output feedback controller recovers the performance of the state feedback controller when the observer gain is sufficiently high. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed method, the linear RC battery model in ADVISOR is used. The performance of the proposed method is compared with that of the conventional linear observer(CLO) and some simulation result is given.
Abstract: Multi criteria decision analysis (MDCA) covers both
data and experience. It is very common to solve the problems with
many parameters and uncertainties. GIS supported solutions improve
and speed up the decision process. Weighted grading as a MDCA
method is employed for solving the geotechnical problems. In this
study, geotechnical parameters namely soil type; SPT (N) blow
number, shear wave velocity (Vs) and depth of underground water
level (DUWL) have been engaged in MDCA and GIS. In terms of
geotechnical aspects, the settlement suitability of the municipal area
was analyzed by the method. MDCA results were compatible with
the geotechnical observations and experience. The method can be
employed in geotechnical oriented microzoning studies if the criteria
are well evaluated.
Abstract: Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle
products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and
fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring
modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models
incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic
variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal
order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor
inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand
capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer
demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure
that attains optimality in two steps with demand information
availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with
stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies
and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the
second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected
event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is
illustrated with a numerical example.
Abstract: Preparation and negotiation of innovative and future
projects can be characterized as a strategic-type decision situation,
involving many uncertainties and an unpredictable environment.
We will focus in this paper on the bidding process. It includes cooperative
and strategic decisions.
Our approach for bidding process knowledge capitalization is
aimed at information management in project-oriented organizations,
based on the MUSIC (Management and Use of Co-operative
Information Systems) model.
We will show how to capitalize the company strategic knowledge
and also how to organize the corporate memory. The result of the
adopted approach is improvement of corporate memory quality.
Abstract: In this note, the robust static output feedback
stabilisation of an induction machine is addressed. The machine is
described by a non homogenous bilinear model with structural
uncertainties, and the feedback gain is computed via an iterative LMI
(ILMI) algorithm.
Abstract: Presents a concept for a multidisciplinary process
supporting effective task transitions between different technical
domains during the architectural design stage.
A system configuration challenge is the multifunctional driven
increased solution space. As a consequence, more iteration is needed
to find a global optimum, i.e. a compromise between involved
disciplines without negative impact on development time. Since state
of the art standards like ISO 15288 and VDI 2206 do not provide a
detailed methodology on multidisciplinary design process, higher
uncertainties regarding final specifications arise. This leads to the
need of more detailed and standardized concepts or processes which
could mitigate risks.
The performed work is based on analysis of multidisciplinary
interaction, of modeling and simulation techniques. To demonstrate
and prove the applicability of the presented concept, it is applied to
the design of aircraft high lift systems, in the context of the
engineering disciplines kinematics, actuation, monitoring, installation
and structure design.
Abstract: The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.
Abstract: This paper presents a new adaptive impedance control
strategy, based on Function Approximation Technique (FAT) to
compensate for unknown non-flat environment shape or time-varying
environment location. The target impedance in the force controllable
direction is modified by incorporating adaptive compensators and the
uncertainties are represented by FAT, allowing the update law to be
derived easily. The force error feedback is utilized in the estimation
and the accurate knowledge of the environment parameters are not
required by the algorithm. It is shown mathematically that the
stability of the controller is guaranteed based on Lyapunov theory.
Simulation results presented to demonstrate the validity of the
proposed controller.
Abstract: This paper presents the Function Approximation
Technique (FAT) based adaptive impedance control for a robotic
finger. The force based impedance control is developed so that the
robotic finger tracks the desired force while following the reference
position trajectory, under unknown environment position and
uncertainties in finger parameters. The control strategy is divided into
two phases, which are the free and contact phases. Force error
feedback is utilized in updating the uncertain environment position
during contact phase. Computer simulations results are presented to
demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.