Abstract: In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.
Abstract: The deficit of power supply in Macedonia is almost 30% or reached up to 3000 GWh in a year. The existing thermal and hydro power plants are not enough to cover the power and energy, so the import increases every year. Therefore, in order to have more domestic energy supply, the new trends in renewable and energy efficiency should be implemented in power sector. The paper gives some perspectives for development of the power system in Macedonia, taking into account the growth of electricity demand and in the same time with implementation of renewable and energy efficiency. The development of power system is made for the period up to 2030 with the period of every 5 years.
Abstract: We used mathematical model to study the
transmission of dengue disease. The model is developed in which
the human population is separated into two populations, pregnant and
non-pregnant humans. The dynamical analysis method is used for
analyzing this modified model. Two equilibrium states are found and
the conditions for stability of theses two equilibrium states are
established. Numerical results are shown for each equilibrium state.
The basic reproduction numbers are found and they are compared by
using numerical simulations.
Abstract: Measuring the effect of perinatal lead exposure on learning ability of offspring is considered as a sensitive and selective index for providing an early marker for central nervous system damage produced by this toxic metal. A total of 35 Sprague-Dawley adult rats were used to investigate the effect of lead acetate toxicity on behavioral patterns of adult female rats and learning ability of offspring. Rats were allotted into 4 groups, group one received 1g/l lead acetate (n=10), group two received 1.5g/l lead acetate (n=10), group three received 2g/l lead acetate in drinking water (n=10) and control group did not receive lead acetate (n=5) from 8th day of pregnancy till weaning of pups.
The obtained results revealed a dose dependent increase in the feeding time, drinking frequency, licking frequency, scratching frequency, licking litters, nest building and retrieving frequencies, while standing time increased significantly in rats treated with 1.5g/l lead acetate than other treated groups and control, on contrary lying time decreased gradually in a dose dependent manner. Moreover, movement activities were higher in rats treated with 1g/l lead acetate than other treated groups and control. Furthermore, time spent in closed arms was significantly lower in rats given 2g/l lead acetate than other treated groups, while, they spent significantly much time spent in open arms than other treated groups which could be attributed to occurrence of adaptation. Furthermore, number of entries in open arms was dose dependent. However, the ratio between open/closed arms revealed a significant decrease in rats treated with 2g/l lead acetate than control group.
Abstract: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have gained tremendous importance, in both Military and Civil, during first decade of this century. In a UAV, onboard computer (autopilot) autonomously controls the flight and navigation of the aircraft. Based on the aircraft role and flight envelope, basic to complex and sophisticated controllers are used to stabilize the aircraft flight parameters. These controllers constitute the autopilot system for UAVs. The autopilot systems, most commonly, provide lateral and longitudinal control through Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controllers or Phase-lead or Lag Compensators. Various techniques are commonly used to ‘tune’ gains of these controllers. Some techniques used are, in-flight step-by-step tuning, software-in-loop or hardware-in-loop tuning methods. Subsequently, numerous in-flight tests are required to actually ‘fine-tune’ these gains. However, an optimization-based tuning of these PID controllers or compensators, as presented in this paper, can greatly minimize the requirement of in-flight ‘tuning’ and substantially reduce the risks and cost involved in flight-testing.
Abstract: In this paper we introduced new wavelet based algorithm for speckle reduction of synthetic aperture radar images, which uses combination of undecimated wavelet transformation, wiener filter (which is an adaptive filter) and mean filter. Further more instead of using existing thresholding techniques such as sure shrinkage, Bayesian shrinkage, universal thresholding, normal thresholding, visu thresholding, soft and hard thresholding, we use brute force thresholding, which iteratively run the whole algorithm for each possible candidate value of threshold and saves each result in array and finally selects the value for threshold that gives best possible results. That is why it is slow as compared to existing thresholding techniques but gives best results under the given algorithm for speckle reduction.
Abstract: An optimal control strategy based on simple model, a
single phase unity power factor boost converter is presented with an
evaluation of first order differential equations. This paper presents an
evaluation of single phase boost converter having power factor
correction. The simple discrete model of boost converter is formed
and optimal control is obtained, digital PI is adopted to adjust control
error. The method of instantaneous current control is proposed in this
paper for its good tracking performance of dynamic response. The
simulation and experimental results verified our design.
Abstract: Schools today face ever-increasing demands in their attempts to ensure that students are well equipped to enter the workforce and navigate a complex world. Research indicates that computer technology can help support learning, implementation of various experiments or learning games, and that it is especially useful in developing the higher-order skills of critical thinking, observation, comprehension, implementation, comparison, analysis and active attention to activities such as research, field work, simulations and scientific inquiry. The ICT in education supports the learning procedure by enabling it to be more flexible and effective, create a rich and attractive training environment and equip the students with knowledge and potential useful for the competitive social environment in which they live. This paper presents the design, the development, and the results of the evaluation analysis of an interactive educational game which using real electric vehicles - toys (material) on a toy race track. When the game starts each student selects a specific vehicle toy. Then students are answering questionnaires in the computer. The vehicles' speed is related to the percentage of right answers in a multiple choice questionnaire (software). Every question has its own significant value depending of the different level of questionnaire. Via the developed software, each right or wrong answers in questionnaire increase or decrease the real time speed of their vehicle toys. Moreover the rate of vehicle's speed increase or decrease depends on the difficulty level of each question. The aim of the work is to attract the student’s interest in a learning process and also to improve their scores. The developed real time game was tested using independent populations of students of age groups: 8-10, 11-14, 15-18 years. Standard educational and statistical analysis tools were used for the evaluation analysis of the game. Results reveal that students using the developed real time control game scored much higher (60%) than students using a traditional simulation game on the same questionnaire. Results further indicate that student's interest in repeating the developed real time control gaming was far higher (70%) than the interest of students using a traditional simulation game.
Abstract: In order to better understand the performance of
screen channel liquid acquisition devices (LADs) in liquid oxygen (LOX), a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of LOX passing through a LAD screen channel was conducted. In the
simulation, the screen is taken as a 'porous jump' where the pressure
drop across the screen depends on the incoming velocity and is formulated by Δp = Av + Bv2
. The CFD simulation reveals the importance of the pressure losses due to the flow entering from
across the screen and impacting and merging with the channel flow
and the vortices in the channel to the cumulative flow resistance. In fact, both the flow resistance of flows impact and mergence and the
resistance created by vortices are much larger than the friction and dynamic pressure losses in the channel and are comparable to the
flow resistance across the screen. Therefore, these resistances in the
channel must be considered as part of the evaluation for the LAD
channel performance. For proper operation of a LAD in LOX these resistances must be less than the bubble point pressure for the screen
channel in LOX. The simulation also presents the pressure and velocity distributions within the LAD screen channel, expanding the understanding of the fluid flow characteristics within the channel.
Abstract: Adsorption of proteins onto a solid surface is believed to be the initial and controlling step in biofouling. A better knowledge of the fouling process can be obtained by controlling the formation of the first protein layer at a solid surface. A number of methods have been investigated to inhibit adsorption of proteins. In this study, the adsorption kinetics of
Abstract: Strict stability can present the rate of decay of the
solution, so more and more investigators are beginning to study the
topic and some results have been obtained. However, there are few
results about strict stability of stochastic differential equations. In
this paper, using Lyapunov functions and Razumikhin technique, we
have gotten some criteria for the strict stability of impulsive stochastic
functional differential equations with markovian switching.
Abstract: Attack graph is an integral part of modeling the
overview of network security. System administrators use attack graphs to determine how vulnerable their systems are and to determine
what security measures to deploy to defend their systems. Previous methods on AGG(attack graphs generation) are aiming at
the whole network, which makes the process of AGG complex and
non-scalable. In this paper, we propose a new approach which is
simple and scalable to AGG by decomposing the whole network into atomic domains. Each atomic domain represents a host with a specific privilege. Then the process for AGG is achieved by communications
among all the atomic domains. Our approach simplifies the process
of design for the whole network, and can gives the attack graphs including each attack path for each host, and when the network changes we just carry on the operations of corresponding atomic
domains which makes the process of AGG scalable.
Abstract: The migration of a deformable drop in simple shear
flow at finite Reynolds numbers is investigated numerically by
solving the full Navier-Stokes equations using a finite
difference/front tracking method. The objectives of this study are to
examine the effectiveness of the present approach to predict the
migration of a drop in a shear flow and to investigate the behavior of
the drop migration with different drop sizes and non-unity viscosity
ratios. It is shown that the drop deformation depends strongly on the
capillary number, so that; the proper non-dimensional number for the
interfacial tension is the capillary number. The rate of migration
increased with increasing the drop radius. In other words, the
required time for drop migration to the centreline decreases. As the
viscosity ratio increases, the drop rotates more slowly and the
lubrication force becomes stronger. The increased lubrication force
makes it easier for the drop to migrate to the centre of the channel.
The migration velocity of the drop vanishes as the drop reaches the
centreline under viscosity ratio of one and non-unity viscosity ratios.
To validate the present calculations, some typical results are
compared with available experimental and theoretical data.
Abstract: Business Process Reengineering (BPR) is an essential tool before an information system project implementation. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) projects definitely require the standardization and fixation of business processes from customer order to shipment. Therefore, ERP implementations are well proven to be coupled with BPR, although the extend and timing of BPR with respect to ERP implementation differ. This study aims at analyzing the effects of BPR on ERP implementation success. Basing on two Turkish ERP implementations in pharmaceutical sector, a comparative study is performed. One of the ERP implementations took place after a BPR implementation, whereas the other implementation was without a prior BPR application. Both implementations have been realized with the same consultant team, the case with prior BPR implementation going live first. The results of the case study reveal that if business processes are not optimized and improved before an ERP implementation, ERP live system would face with disharmony problems of processes and processes automated by ERP. This suggests a definite precedence relationship between BPR and ERP applications
Abstract: A block backward differentiation formula of uniform
order eight is proposed for solving first order stiff initial value
problems (IVPs). The conventional 8-step Backward Differentiation
Formula (BDF) and additional methods are obtained from the same
continuous scheme and assembled into a block matrix equation which
is applied to provide the solutions of IVPs on non-overlapping
intervals. The stability analysis of the method indicates that the
method is L0-stable. Numerical results obtained using the proposed
new block form show that it is attractive for solutions of stiff problems
and compares favourably with existing ones.
Abstract: This paper discusses a new heavy tailed distribution based data hiding into discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of image, which provides statistical security as well as robustness against steganalysis attacks. Unlike other data hiding algorithms, the proposed technique does not introduce much effect in the stegoimage-s DCT coefficient probability plots, thus making the presence of hidden data statistically undetectable. In addition the proposed method does not compromise on hiding capacity. When compared to the generic block DCT based data-hiding scheme, our method found more robust against a variety of image manipulating attacks such as filtering, blurring, JPEG compression etc.
Abstract: This paper presents a comparative study on dry and wet grinding through experimental investigation in the grinding of CSM glass fibre reinforced polymer laminates using a pink aluminium oxide wheel. Different sets of experiments were performed to study the effects of the independent grinding parameters such as grinding wheel speed, feed and depth of cut on dependent performance criteria such as cutting forces and surface finish. Experimental conditions were laid out using design of experiment central composite design. An effective coolant was sought in this study to minimise cutting forces and surface roughness for GFRP laminates grinding. Test results showed that the use of coolants reduces surface roughness, although not necessarily the cutting forces. These research findings provide useful economic machining solution in terms of optimized grinding conditions for grinding CSM GFRP.
Abstract: Ants are fascinating creatures that demonstrate the
ability to find food and bring it back to their nest. Their ability as a
colony, to find paths to food sources has inspired the development of
algorithms known as Ant Colony Systems (ACS). The principle of
cooperation forms the backbone of such algorithms, commonly used
to find solutions to problems such as the Traveling Salesman
Problem (TSP). Ants communicate to each other through chemical
substances called pheromones. Modeling individual ants- ability to
manipulate this substance can help an ACS find the best solution.
This paper introduces a Dynamic Ant Colony System with threelevel
updates (DACS3) that enhance an existing ACS. Experiments
were conducted to observe single ant behavior in a colony of
Malaysian House Red Ants. Such behavior was incorporated into the
DACS3 algorithm. We benchmark the performance of DACS3 versus
DACS on TSP instances ranging from 14 to 100 cities. The result
shows that the DACS3 algorithm can achieve shorter distance in
most cases and also performs considerably faster than DACS.
Abstract: In this paper, self-starting block hybrid method of
order (5,5,5,5)T is proposed for the solution of the special second
order ordinary differential equations with associated initial or
boundary conditions. The continuous hybrid formulations enable us
to differentiate and evaluate at some grids and off – grid points to
obtain four discrete schemes, which were used in block form for
parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. The computational
burden and computer time wastage involved in the usual reduction of
second order problem into system of first order equations are avoided
by this approach. Furthermore, a stability analysis and efficiency of
the block method are tested on stiff ordinary differential equations,
and the results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution.
Abstract: The aim of this study the analysis of Turkic culture and their influence on personality. We also discussed the role of history in Turkic folk development. Thereby cultural and anthropological context of ancient Turkic sources reveal concept of the "person". In the article have been analyzed ethnical, cultural, ethnical philosophical content of the world conception of the ancient Turks.