Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

A Super-Efficiency Model for Evaluating Efficiency in the Presence of Time Lag Effect

In many cases, there are some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in evaluating the performance of organizations. Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. Multi-periods input(MpI) and Multi-periods output(MpO) models are integrate models to calculate simple efficiency considering time lag effect. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. That is, efficient DMUs can’t be discriminated because their efficiency scores are same. Thus, this paper suggests a super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect based on the MpO model. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.

Technology Based Learning Environment and Student Achievement in English as a Foreign Language in Pakistan

The fast growing accessibility and capability of emerging technologies have fashioned enormous possibilities of designing, developing and implementing innovative teaching methods in the classroom. The global technological scenario has paved the way to new pedagogies in teaching-learning process focusing on technology based learning environment and its impact on student achievement. The present experimental study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of technology based learning environment on student achievement in English as a foreign language. The sample of the study was 90 students of 10th grade of a public school located in Islamabad. A pretest- posttest equivalent group design was used to compare the achievement of the two groups. A Pretest and A posttest containing 50 items each from English textbook were developed and administered. The collected data were statistically analyzed. The results showed that there was a significant difference between the mean scores of Experimental group and the Control group. The performance of Experimental group was better on posttest scores that indicted that teaching through technology based learning environment enhanced the achievement level of the students. On the basis of the results, it was recommended that teaching and learning through information and communication technologies may be adopted to enhance the language learning capability of the students.

Hybrid of Hunting Search and Modified Simplex Methods for Grease Position Parameter Design Optimisation

This study proposes a multi-response surface optimization problem (MRSOP) for determining the proper choices of a process parameter design (PPD) decision problem in a noisy environment of a grease position process in an electronic industry. The proposed models attempts to maximize dual process responses on the mean of parts between failure on left and right processes. The conventional modified simplex method and its hybridization of the stochastic operator from the hunting search algorithm are applied to determine the proper levels of controllable design parameters affecting the quality performances. A numerical example demonstrates the feasibility of applying the proposed model to the PPD problem via two iterative methods. Its advantages are also discussed. Numerical results demonstrate that the hybridization is superior to the use of the conventional method. In this study, the mean of parts between failure on left and right lines improve by 39.51%, approximately. All experimental data presented in this research have been normalized to disguise actual performance measures as raw data are considered to be confidential.

Heavy Metal Concentrations in Fanworth (Cabombafurcata) from Lake Chini, Malaysia

Study was conducted to determine the concentration of copper, cadmium, lead and zinc in Cabomba furcata that found abundance in Lake Chini. This aquatic plant was collected randomly within the lake for heavy metal determination. Water quality measurement was undertaken in situ for temperature, pH, conductivity and dissolved oksigen using portable multi sensor probe YSI model 556. The C. furcata was digested using wet digestion method and heavy metal concentrations were analysed using Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS) Perkin Elmer 4100B (flame method). Result of water quality classify Lake Chini between class II to class III using Malaysian Water Quality Standard. According to this standard, Lake Chini has moderate quality, which normal for natural lake. Heavy metal concentrations in C.furcata were low and found to be lower than the critical toxic value in aquatic plants. Oneway ANOVA test indicated the heavy metal concentrations in C.furcata were significantly differ between sampling location. Water quality and heavy metal concentrations indicates that Lake Chini was not receives anthropogenic load from nearby activities.

Velocity Filter Banks using 3-D FFT

In this paper a bank of velocity filters is devised to be used for isolating a moving object with specific velocity in a sequence of frames. The approach used is a 3-D FFT based experimental procedure without applying any theoretical concept from velocity filters. Accordingly, velocity filters are built using the spectral signature of each separate moving object. Experimentation reveals the capabilities of the constructed filter bank to separate moving objects as far as the amplitude as well as the direction of the velocity are concerned.

Two Iterative Algorithms to Compute the Bisymmetric Solution of the Matrix Equation A1X1B1 + A2X2B2 + ... + AlXlBl = C

In this paper, two matrix iterative methods are presented to solve the matrix equation A1X1B1 + A2X2B2 + ... + AlXlBl = C the minimum residual problem l i=1 AiXiBi−CF = minXi∈BRni×ni l i=1 AiXiBi−CF and the matrix nearness problem [X1, X2, ..., Xl] = min[X1,X2,...,Xl]∈SE [X1,X2, ...,Xl] − [X1, X2, ..., Xl]F , where BRni×ni is the set of bisymmetric matrices, and SE is the solution set of above matrix equation or minimum residual problem. These matrix iterative methods have faster convergence rate and higher accuracy than former methods. Paige’s algorithms are used as the frame method for deriving these matrix iterative methods. The numerical example is used to illustrate the efficiency of these new methods.

Free Vibration Analysis of Smart FGM Plates

Analytical investigation of the free vibration behavior of circular functionally graded (FG) plates integrated with two uniformly distributed actuator layers made of piezoelectric (PZT4) material on the top and bottom surfaces of the circular FG plate based on the classical plate theory (CPT) is presented in this paper. The material properties of the functionally graded substrate plate are assumed to be graded in the thickness direction according to the power-law distribution in terms of the volume fractions of the constituents and the distribution of electric potential field along the thickness direction of piezoelectric layers is simulated by a quadratic function. The differential equations of motion are solved analytically for clamped edge boundary condition of the plate. The detailed mathematical derivations are presented and Numerical investigations are performed for FG plates with two surface-bonded piezoelectric layers. Emphasis is placed on investigating the effect of varying the gradient index of FG plate on the free vibration characteristics of the structure. The results are verified by those obtained from threedimensional finite element analyses.

Mathematical Model of Smoking Time Temperature Effect on Ribbed Smoked Sheets Quality

The quality of Ribbed Smoked Sheets (RSS) primarily based on color, dryness, and the presence or absence of fungus and bubbles. This quality is strongly influenced by the drying and fumigation process namely smoking process. Smoking that is held in high temperature long time will result scorched dark brown sheets, whereas if the temperature is too low or slow drying rate would resulted in less mature sheets and growth of fungus. Therefore need to find the time and temperature for optimum quality of sheets. Enhance, unmonitored heat and mass transfer during smoking process lead to high losses of energy balance. This research aims to generate simple empirical mathematical model describing the effect of smoking time and temperature to RSS quality of color, water content, fungus and bubbles. The second goal of study was to analyze energy balance during smoking process. Experimental study was conducted by measuring temperature, residence time and quality parameters of 16 sheets sample in smoking rooms. Data for energy consumption balance such as mass of fuel wood, mass of sheets being smoked, construction temperature, ambient temperature and relative humidity were taken directly along the smoking process. It was found that mathematical model correlating smoking temperature and time with color is Color = -169 - 0.184 T4 - 0.193 T3 - 0.160 0.405 T1 + T2 + 0.388 t1 +3.11 t2 + 3.92t3 + 0.215 t4 with R square 50.8% and with moisture is Moisture = -1.40-0.00123 T4 + 0.00032 T3 + 0.00260 T2 - 0.00292 T1 - 0.0105 t1 + 0.0290 t2 + 0.0452 t3 + 0.00061 t4 with R square of 49.9%. Smoking room energy analysis found useful energy was 27.8%. The energy stored in the material construction 7.3%. Lost of energy in conversion of wood combustion, ventilation and others were 16.6%. The energy flowed out through the contact of material construction with the ambient air was found to be the highest contribution to energy losses, it reached 48.3%.

Quick Spatial Assessment of Drought Information Derived from MODIS Imagery Using Amplitude Analysis

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) have been widely used to identify spatial information of drought condition. The relationship between NDVI and NDMI has been analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis and showed strong positive relationship. The drought indices have detected drought conditions and identified spatial extents of drought. A comparison between normal year and drought year demonstrates that the amplitude analysis considered both vegetation and moisture condition is an effective method to identify drought condition. We proposed the amplitude analysis is useful for quick spatial assessment of drought information at a regional scale.

Molecular Dynamics and Circular Dichroism Studies on Aurein 1.2 and Retro Analog

Aurein 1.2 is a 13-residue amphipathic peptide with antibacterial and anticancer activity. Aurein1.2 and its retro analog were synthesized to study the activity of the peptides in relation to their structure. The antibacterial test result showed the retro-analog is inactive. The secondary structural analysis by CD spectra indicated that both of the peptides at TFE/Water adopt alpha-helical conformation. MD simulation was performed on aurein 1.2 and retro-analog in water and TFE in order to analyse the factors that are involved in the activity difference between retro and the native peptide. The simulation results are discussed and validated in the light of experimental data from the CD experiment. Both of the peptides showed a relatively similar pattern for their hydrophobicity, hydrophilicity, solvent accessible surfaces, and solvent accessible hydrophobic surfaces. However, they showed different in directions of dipole moment of peptides. Also, Our results further indicate that the reversion of the amino acid sequence affects flexibility .The data also showed that factors causing structural rigidity may decrease the activity. Consequently, our finding suggests that in the case of sequence-reversed peptide strategy, one has to pay attention to the role of amino acid sequence order in making flexibility and role of dipole moment direction in peptide activity. KeywordsAntimicrobial peptides, retro, molecular dynamic, circular dichroism.

A Finite Point Method Based on Directional Derivatives for Diffusion Equation

This paper presents a finite point method based on directional derivatives for diffusion equation on 2D scattered points. To discretize the diffusion operator at a given point, a six-point stencil is derived by employing explicit numerical formulae of directional derivatives, namely, for the point under consideration, only five neighbor points are involved, the number of which is the smallest for discretizing diffusion operator with first-order accuracy. A method for selecting neighbor point set is proposed, which satisfies the solvability condition of numerical derivatives. Some numerical examples are performed to show the good performance of the proposed method.

Spectral Amplitude Coding Optical CDMA: Performance Analysis of PIIN Reduction Using VC Code Family

Multi-user interference (MUI) is the main reason of system deterioration in the Spectral Amplitude Coding Optical Code Division Multiple Access (SAC-OCDMA) system. MUI increases with the number of simultaneous users, resulting into higher probability bit rate and limits the maximum number of simultaneous users. On the other hand, Phase induced intensity noise (PIIN) problem which is originated from spontaneous emission of broad band source from MUI severely limits the system performance should be addressed as well. Since the MUI is caused by the interference of simultaneous users, reducing the MUI value as small as possible is desirable. In this paper, an extensive study for the system performance specified by MUI and PIIN reducing is examined. Vectors Combinatorial (VC) codes families are adopted as a signature sequence for the performance analysis and a comparison with reported codes is performed. The results show that, when the received power increases, the PIIN noise for all the codes increases linearly. The results also show that the effect of PIIN can be minimized by increasing the code weight leads to preserve adequate signal to noise ratio over bit error probability. A comparison study between the proposed code and the existing codes such as Modified frequency hopping (MFH), Modified Quadratic- Congruence (MQC) has been carried out.

TOSOM: A Topic-Oriented Self-Organizing Map for Text Organization

The self-organizing map (SOM) model is a well-known neural network model with wide spread of applications. The main characteristics of SOM are two-fold, namely dimension reduction and topology preservation. Using SOM, a high-dimensional data space will be mapped to some low-dimensional space. Meanwhile, the topological relations among data will be preserved. With such characteristics, the SOM was usually applied on data clustering and visualization tasks. However, the SOM has main disadvantage of the need to know the number and structure of neurons prior to training, which are difficult to be determined. Several schemes have been proposed to tackle such deficiency. Examples are growing/expandable SOM, hierarchical SOM, and growing hierarchical SOM. These schemes could dynamically expand the map, even generate hierarchical maps, during training. Encouraging results were reported. Basically, these schemes adapt the size and structure of the map according to the distribution of training data. That is, they are data-driven or dataoriented SOM schemes. In this work, a topic-oriented SOM scheme which is suitable for document clustering and organization will be developed. The proposed SOM will automatically adapt the number as well as the structure of the map according to identified topics. Unlike other data-oriented SOMs, our approach expands the map and generates the hierarchies both according to the topics and their characteristics of the neurons. The preliminary experiments give promising result and demonstrate the plausibility of the method.

PIIN Suppression Using Random Diagonal Code for Spectral Amplitude Coding Optical CDMA System

A new code for spectral-amplitude coding optical code-division multiple-access system is proposed called Random diagonal (RD) code. This code is constructed using code segment and data segment. One of the important properties of this code is that the cross correlation at data segment is always zero, which means that Phase Intensity Induced Noise (PIIN) is reduced. For the performance analysis, the effects of phase-induced intensity noise, shot noise, and thermal noise are considered simultaneously. Bit-error rate (BER) performance is compared with Hadamard and Modified Frequency Hopping (MFH) codes. It is shown that the system using this new code matrices not only suppress PIIN, but also allows larger number of active users compare with other codes. Simulation results shown that using point to point transmission with three encoded channels, RD code has better BER performance than other codes, also its found that at 0 dbm PIIN noise are 10-10 and 10-11 for RD and MFH respectively.

A Microcontroller Implementation of Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is increasingly being proposed for real time applications and embedded systems. However comparing to PID controller, the implementation of the MPC in miniaturized devices like Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) and microcontrollers has historically been very small scale due to its complexity in implementation and its computation time requirement. At the same time, such embedded technologies have become an enabler for future manufacturing enterprises as well as a transformer of organizations and markets. Recently, advances in microelectronics and software allow such technique to be implemented in embedded systems. In this work, we take advantage of these recent advances in this area in the deployment of one of the most studied and applied control technique in the industrial engineering. In fact in this paper, we propose an efficient framework for implementation of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) in the performed STM32 microcontroller. The STM32 keil starter kit based on a JTAG interface and the STM32 board was used to implement the proposed GPC firmware. Besides the GPC, the PID anti windup algorithm was also implemented using Keil development tools designed for ARM processor-based microcontroller devices and working with C/Cµ langage. A performances comparison study was done between both firmwares. This performances study show good execution speed and low computational burden. These results encourage to develop simple predictive algorithms to be programmed in industrial standard hardware. The main features of the proposed framework are illustrated through two examples and compared with the anti windup PID controller.

Clamped-clamped Boundary Conditions for Analysis Free Vibration of Functionally Graded Cylindrical Shell with a Ring based on Third Order Shear Deformation Theory

In this paper a study on the vibration of thin cylindrical shells with ring supports and made of functionally graded materials (FGMs) composed of stainless steel and nickel is presented. Material properties vary along the thickness direction of the shell according to volume fraction power law. The cylindrical shells have ring supports which are arbitrarily placed along the shell and impose zero lateral deflections. The study is carried out based on third order shear deformation shell theory (T.S.D.T). The analysis is carried out using Hamilton-s principle. The governing equations of motion of FGM cylindrical shells are derived based on shear deformation theory. Results are presented on the frequency characteristics, influence of ring support position and the influence of boundary conditions. The present analysis is validated by comparing results with those available in the literature.

Envelope Echo Signal of Metal Sphere in the Fresh Water

An envelope echo signal measurement is proposed in this paper using echo signal observation from the 200 kHz echo sounder receiver. The envelope signal without any object is compared with the envelope signal of the sphere. Two diameter size steel ball (3.1 cm & 2.2 cm) and two diameter size air filled stainless steel ball (4.8 cm & 7.4 cm) used in this experiment. The target was positioned about 0.5 m and 1.0 meter from the transducer face using nylon rope. From the echo observation in time domain, it is obviously shown that echo signal structure is different between the size, distance and type of metal sphere. The amplitude envelope voltage for the bigger sphere is higher compare to the small sphere and it confirm that the bigger sphere have higher target strength compare to the small sphere. Although the structure signal without any object are different compare to the signal from the sphere, the reflected signal from the tank floor increase linearly with the sphere size. We considered this event happened because of the object position approximately to the tank floor.

Problems and Possible Solutions with the Development of a Computer Model of Quantum Theory

A computer model of Quantum Theory (QT) has been developed by the author. Major goal of the computer model was support and demonstration of an as large as possible scope of QT. This includes simulations for the major QT (Gedanken-) experiments such as, for example, the famous double-slit experiment. Besides the anticipated difficulties with (1) transforming exacting mathematics into a computer program, two further types of problems showed up, namely (2) areas where QT provides a complete mathematical formalism, but when it comes to concrete applications the equations are not solvable at all, or only with extremely high effort; (3) QT rules which are formulated in natural language and which do not seem to be translatable to precise mathematical expressions, nor to a computer program. The paper lists problems in all three categories and describes also the possible solutions or circumventions developed for the computer model.

Multi-Objective Optimization for Performance-based Seismic Retrofit using Connection Upgrade

The unanticipated brittle fracture of connection of the steel moment resisting frame (SMRF) occurred in 1994 the Northridge earthquake. Since then, the researches for the vulnerability of connection of the existing SMRF and for rehabilitation of those buildings were conducted. This paper suggests performance-based optimal seismic retrofit technique using connection upgrade. For optimal design, a multi-objective genetic algorithm(NSGA-II) is used. One of the two objective functions is to minimize initial cost and another objective function is to minimize lifetime seismic damages cost. The optimal algorithm proposed in this paper is performed satisfying specified performance objective based on FEMA 356. The nonlinear static analysis is performed for structural seismic performance evaluation. A numerical example of SAC benchmark SMRF is provided using the performance-based optimal seismic retrofit technique proposed in this paper