Abstract: Identifying and classifying intersections according to
severity is very important for implementation of safety related
counter measures and effective models are needed to compare and
assess the severity. Highway safety organizations have considered
intersection safety among their priorities. In spite of significant
advances in highways safety, the large numbers of crashes with high
severities still occur in the highways. Investigation of influential
factors on crashes enables engineers to carry out calculations in order
to reduce crash severity. Previous studies lacked a model capable of
simultaneous illustration of the influence of human factors, road,
vehicle, weather conditions and traffic features including traffic
volume and flow speed on the crash severity. Thus, this paper is
aimed at developing the models to illustrate the simultaneous
influence of these variables on the crash severity in urban highways.
The models represented in this study have been developed using
binary Logit Models. SPSS software has been used to calibrate the
models. It must be mentioned that backward regression method in
SPSS was used to identify the significant variables in the model.
Consider to obtained results it can be concluded that the main
factor in increasing of crash severity in urban highways are driver
age, movement with reverse gear, technical defect of the vehicle,
vehicle collision with motorcycle and bicycle, bridge, frontal impact
collisions, frontal-lateral collisions and multi-vehicle crashes in
urban highways which always increase the crash severity in urban
highways.
Abstract: In the planning point of view, it is essential to have
mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation
systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as
against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and
socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to
recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models,
for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya.
Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been
formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in
Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide
revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The
model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work,
social and recreational). The variables of the model have been
predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for
model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors
in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About
two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the
remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is
the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s
mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was
successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the
overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation.
The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive
to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of
modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various
travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to
planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and
determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for
intercity travel.
Abstract: The aim of the article is extending and developing
econometrics and network structure based methods which are able to
distinguish price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. The
principal goal of the present study is to offer model for
approximating price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. In order
to do so by applying separation method a sample consisting of 397
companies accepted at Tehran stock exchange were selected and
information related to their price and volume of trades during years
2001 until 2009 were collected and then through performing runs
test, skewness test and duration correlative test the selected
companies were divided into 2 sets of manipulated and non
manipulated companies. In the next stage by investigating
cumulative return process and volume of trades in manipulated
companies, the date of starting price manipulation was specified and
in this way the logit model, artificial neural network, multiple
discriminant analysis and by using information related to size of
company, clarity of information, ratio of P/E and liquidity of stock
one year prior price manipulation; a model for forecasting price
manipulation of stocks of companies present in Tehran stock
exchange were designed. At the end the power of forecasting models
were studied by using data of test set. Whereas the power of
forecasting logit model for test set was 92.1%, for artificial neural
network was 94.1% and multi audit analysis model was 90.2%;
therefore all of the 3 aforesaid models has high power to forecast
price manipulation and there is no considerable difference among
forecasting power of these 3 models.
Abstract: In this paper, perceptions of actors on changes in
crop productivity, quantity and quality of water, and determinants of
their perception are analyzed using descriptive statistics and ordered
logit model. Data collected from 297 Ethiopian farmers and 103
agricultural professionals from December 2009 to January 2010 are
employed. Results show that the majority of the farmers and
professionals recognized decline in water resources, reasoning
climate changes and soil erosion as some of the causes. However,
there is a variation in views on changes in productivity. The
household asset, education level, age and geographical positions are
found to affect farmers- perception on changes in crop productivity.
But, the study underlines that there is no evidence that farmers-
economic status, age, or education level affects recognition of
degradation of water resources. Thus, more focus shall be given on
providing them different coping mechanisms and alternative
resource conserving technologies than educating about the
problems.