Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya
In the planning point of view, it is essential to have
mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation
systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as
against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and
socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to
recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models,
for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya.
Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been
formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in
Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide
revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The
model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work,
social and recreational). The variables of the model have been
predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for
model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors
in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About
two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the
remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is
the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s
mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was
successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the
overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation.
The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive
to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of
modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various
travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to
planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and
determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for
intercity travel.
<p>[1] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, and R. Rahmat, "Development of disaggregate
mode choice models of intercity travel in Libya," in Information
Technology and Artificial Intelligence Conference (ITAIC), 2011 6th
IEEE Joint International, 2011, pp. 197-201.
[2] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, and R. Rahmat, "Influencing Intercity Mode
Choice Behavior in Libya," International Journal of Information and
Electronics Engineering, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 547-551, 2012 a.
[3] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, R. Rahmat, and A. M. Alhodairi, “Modelling
Intercity Route Choice Behaviour to Explore Road Users’ Response to
Road Pricing Policy in Libya," Australian Journal of Basic and Applied
Sciences, vol. 6, no. 9, pp. 431-439, 2012 b.
[4] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, A. M. Alhodairi, and R. Rahmat, “Behavior
Modeling of Intercity Travel Mode Choice for Business Trips in Libya:
a Binary Logit Model of Car and Airplane,” Journal of Applied Sciences
Research, 53JASR Jan 2013.
[5] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, A. M. Alhodairi, and R. Rahmat, “Modeling of
Intercity Transport Mode Choice Behavior in Libya: a Binary Logit
Model for Business Trips by Private Car and Intercity Bus,” Australian
Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 302-311, 2013.
[6] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, A. M. Alhodairi, and R. Rahmat, “Modeling of
Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for Non-Business Trips within
Libya,” Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and
Technology, 2013c.
[7] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, A. M. Alhodairi, and R. Rahmat, “Evaluate the
Service Quality of Local Airline Companies in Libya Using Importance-
Satisfaction Analysis,” Australian Journal of Basic and Applied
Sciences, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 154-165, 2013.
[8] J. D. Ortuzar, and L. G. Willumsen, “Modeling Transport” 2nd ed.
Chichester, NY: John Wiley and Sons, 1994.
[9] M. E. B. Akiva, and S. R. Lerman, Discrete choice analysis: theory and
application to predict travel demand. vol. 9: The MIT press, 1985.
[10] P. L. Watson, "Predictions of Intercity Modal Choice from Disaggregate,
Behavioral, Stochastic Models," Highway Research Record, no. 446, pp.
28-35, 1973.
[11] A. Grayson, “Disaggregate Model of Choice in Intercity Travel”
Transportation Research Record, no. 835, pp. 36-42, 1981.
[12] A. Banai-Kashani, “Travel Demand (Modal Spilt) Estimation by
Hierarchical Measurement” Journal of the Market Research Society, vol.
48, pp. 295-306, 1984.
[13] F. R. Wilson, S. Damodaran, and J. D. Innes, "Disaggregate mode
choice models for intercity passenger travel in Canada," Canadian
Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 17, pp. 184-191, 1990.
[14] R. W. Lyles, and S. R. Mallick, "An intercity model of modal split
considering four modes," Journal of advanced transportation, vol. 24,
pp. 191-211, 1990.
[15] F. Koppelman, "Multidimensional model system for intercity travel
choice behavior," Transportation Research Record, 1989.
[16] W. M. Abdelwahab, J. D. Innes, and A. M. Stevens, "Development of
disaggregate mode choice models of intercity travel in Canada,"
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 19, pp. 965-974, 1992.
[17] C. V. Forinash and F. S. Koppelman, "Application and interpretation of
nested logit models of intercity mode choice," Transportation Research
Record, 1993.
[18] C. R. Bhat, "An endogenous segmentation mode choice model with an
application to intercity travel," Transportation Science, vol. 31, pp. 34-
48, 1997.
[19] S. R. Mehndiratta, and M. Hansen, "Analysis of discrete choice data
with repeated observations: comparison of three Techniques in intercity
travel Case," Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board, vol. 1607, pp. 69-73, 1997.
[20] P. Vovsha, "Application of cross-nested logit model to mode choice in
Tel Aviv, Israel, metropolitan area," Transportation Research Record:
Journal of the Transportation Research Board, vol. 1607, pp. 6-15,
1997.
[21] A. Nurdeen, R. A. O. Rahmat, and A. Ismail, "Modeling of
transportation behavior for coercive measures for car driving in Kuala
Lumpur," ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 2,
no.2, pp.18-24. 2007
[22] S. Ashiabor, H. Baik, and A. Trani, "Logit models for forecasting
nationwide intercity travel demand in the United States," Transportation
Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, vol.
2007, pp. 1-12, 2007.
[23] S. Ashiabor, H. Baik, A. Trani, and N. A. Hinze, “Development of an
Intercity Mode Choice Models for New Aviation Technologies,”
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation
Research Board no. 01079429, pp 61-77, 2007.
[24] A. Daly, "Applicability of disaggregate models of behaviour: a question
of methodology," Transportation Research Part A: General, vol. 16, pp.
363-370, 1982.
[25] F. S. Koppelman, G.-K. Kuah, and M. Hirsh, Review of intercity
passenger travel demand modelling: mid-60's to the mid-80's: The
Transportation Center and Department of Civil Engineering,
Northwestern University, 1984.
[26] P. D. Allison, Logistic regression using SAS: Theory and application:
SAS Institute, 1999, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC.
[27] D. R. Cox, "Regression models and life-tables," Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), pp. 187-220, 1972.
[28] D. G. Kleinbaum, L. L. Kupper, and K.E. Muller, Applied Regression
Analysis and Other Multivariable Methods, Duxbury Pr. 2007.
[29] S. N. Aljarad, "Disaggregate mode choice modeling for intercity nonbusiness
travelers in the Saudi Arabia-Bahrain corridor," Unpublished
Ph.D. Dissertation, Indiana University, Bloomington, 1993.
[30] C. P. Kumar, D. Basu, and B. Maitra, "Modeling generalized cost of
travel for rural bus users: a case study," Journal of Public
Transportation, vol. 7, pp. 59-72, 2004.
[31] P. K. Mukala and M. Chunchu, "Mode choice modelling for intercity
transportation in India: A case of Guwahati to five metro cities."
International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering, vol. 04, no. 06
SPL, pp. 364-374, 2011.
[32] W. Elias, G. L. Newmark, and Y. Shiftan, "Gender and travel behavior
in two Arab communities in Israel," Transportation Research Record:
Journal of the Transportation Research Board, vol. 2067, pp. 75-83,
2008.
[33] H. M. Al-Amadi, G. Ergun, N. T. Ratrout, and S.H. Al-Senan, “Travel
Mode Choice Modelling for AUMRA Tips within Saudi Arabia,” The
fourth Saudi engineering conference, vol. 3, 1995.
[34] U. Riza, "Urban Transport Management System," Engineering Faculty,
UKM IRPA 0, pp. 4-02, 2004.
[35] R. Liu and G. Li, "The subjective values of safety and security in the
context of intercity travel," in Transportation Research Board 83 rd
Annual Meeting Preprint CD-ROM, 2004.
[36] D. B. Jung, T. Nishimura, and Y. Hino, "Analysis of travel mode choice
models considering the subjective indicators of alternatives," Memoirs of
the Faculty of Engineering Osaka City University, vol. 36, pp. 39-46,
1995.
[37] H. M. Al-Ahmadi, "Development of Intercity Mode Choice Models for
Saudi Arabia," Engineering Sciences, vol. 17, pp. 3-20, 2006.
[38] C. Ruijgrok, "Disaggregate choice models: an evaluation," New
Developments in Modelling Travel Demand and Urban Systems,
Westmead, UK: Saxon House, pp. 13-37, 1979.
[39] D. McFadden, Quantitative methods for analyzing travel behavior of
individuals: some recent developments: Ch. 13. Behavioural Travel
Modelling. London, UK: Groom Helm Ltd, 1979.
[40] R. Mackett, and A. Ahern, "Potential for mode transfer of short trips:
Report on the analysis of the survey results," A contract carried out for
the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. Centre
for Transport Studies. University College London.
[41] E. Beimborn, "An examination of the effects of the access portion of a
trip upon an intercity mode choice," Dissertation, Northwestern
University, Evanston, Ill. 1968.
[42] G. Leake, and J. Underwood, "An inter‐city terminal access modal
choice model," Transportation Planning and Technology, vol. 4, pp. 11-
21, 1977.
[43] B. D. Spear, "An Analysis of the Demand for Airport Bus Services at
Washington National and Dulles International Airports," DTIC
Document, Cambridge, Mass.: US Department of Transportation,
Transportation Systems Center, 1984.
[44] E. J. Miller, "The trouble with intercity travel demand models,"
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation
Research Board, vol. 1895, pp. 94-101, 2004.
[45] D. A. Hensher, and L. W. Johnson, "Applied discrete choice modelling,"
London: Croom Helm, 1981.</p>
<p>[1] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, and R. Rahmat, "Development of disaggregate
mode choice models of intercity travel in Libya," in Information
Technology and Artificial Intelligence Conference (ITAIC), 2011 6th
IEEE Joint International, 2011, pp. 197-201.
[2] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, and R. Rahmat, "Influencing Intercity Mode
Choice Behavior in Libya," International Journal of Information and
Electronics Engineering, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 547-551, 2012 a.
[3] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, R. Rahmat, and A. M. Alhodairi, “Modelling
Intercity Route Choice Behaviour to Explore Road Users’ Response to
Road Pricing Policy in Libya," Australian Journal of Basic and Applied
Sciences, vol. 6, no. 9, pp. 431-439, 2012 b.
[4] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, A. M. Alhodairi, and R. Rahmat, “Behavior
Modeling of Intercity Travel Mode Choice for Business Trips in Libya:
a Binary Logit Model of Car and Airplane,” Journal of Applied Sciences
Research, 53JASR Jan 2013.
[5] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, A. M. Alhodairi, and R. Rahmat, “Modeling of
Intercity Transport Mode Choice Behavior in Libya: a Binary Logit
Model for Business Trips by Private Car and Intercity Bus,” Australian
Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 302-311, 2013.
[6] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, A. M. Alhodairi, and R. Rahmat, “Modeling of
Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for Non-Business Trips within
Libya,” Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and
Technology, 2013c.
[7] M. A. A. B. Miskeen, A. M. Alhodairi, and R. Rahmat, “Evaluate the
Service Quality of Local Airline Companies in Libya Using Importance-
Satisfaction Analysis,” Australian Journal of Basic and Applied
Sciences, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 154-165, 2013.
[8] J. D. Ortuzar, and L. G. Willumsen, “Modeling Transport” 2nd ed.
Chichester, NY: John Wiley and Sons, 1994.
[9] M. E. B. Akiva, and S. R. Lerman, Discrete choice analysis: theory and
application to predict travel demand. vol. 9: The MIT press, 1985.
[10] P. L. Watson, "Predictions of Intercity Modal Choice from Disaggregate,
Behavioral, Stochastic Models," Highway Research Record, no. 446, pp.
28-35, 1973.
[11] A. Grayson, “Disaggregate Model of Choice in Intercity Travel”
Transportation Research Record, no. 835, pp. 36-42, 1981.
[12] A. Banai-Kashani, “Travel Demand (Modal Spilt) Estimation by
Hierarchical Measurement” Journal of the Market Research Society, vol.
48, pp. 295-306, 1984.
[13] F. R. Wilson, S. Damodaran, and J. D. Innes, "Disaggregate mode
choice models for intercity passenger travel in Canada," Canadian
Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 17, pp. 184-191, 1990.
[14] R. W. Lyles, and S. R. Mallick, "An intercity model of modal split
considering four modes," Journal of advanced transportation, vol. 24,
pp. 191-211, 1990.
[15] F. Koppelman, "Multidimensional model system for intercity travel
choice behavior," Transportation Research Record, 1989.
[16] W. M. Abdelwahab, J. D. Innes, and A. M. Stevens, "Development of
disaggregate mode choice models of intercity travel in Canada,"
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 19, pp. 965-974, 1992.
[17] C. V. Forinash and F. S. Koppelman, "Application and interpretation of
nested logit models of intercity mode choice," Transportation Research
Record, 1993.
[18] C. R. Bhat, "An endogenous segmentation mode choice model with an
application to intercity travel," Transportation Science, vol. 31, pp. 34-
48, 1997.
[19] S. R. Mehndiratta, and M. Hansen, "Analysis of discrete choice data
with repeated observations: comparison of three Techniques in intercity
travel Case," Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board, vol. 1607, pp. 69-73, 1997.
[20] P. Vovsha, "Application of cross-nested logit model to mode choice in
Tel Aviv, Israel, metropolitan area," Transportation Research Record:
Journal of the Transportation Research Board, vol. 1607, pp. 6-15,
1997.
[21] A. Nurdeen, R. A. O. Rahmat, and A. Ismail, "Modeling of
transportation behavior for coercive measures for car driving in Kuala
Lumpur," ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 2,
no.2, pp.18-24. 2007
[22] S. Ashiabor, H. Baik, and A. Trani, "Logit models for forecasting
nationwide intercity travel demand in the United States," Transportation
Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, vol.
2007, pp. 1-12, 2007.
[23] S. Ashiabor, H. Baik, A. Trani, and N. A. Hinze, “Development of an
Intercity Mode Choice Models for New Aviation Technologies,”
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation
Research Board no. 01079429, pp 61-77, 2007.
[24] A. Daly, "Applicability of disaggregate models of behaviour: a question
of methodology," Transportation Research Part A: General, vol. 16, pp.
363-370, 1982.
[25] F. S. Koppelman, G.-K. Kuah, and M. Hirsh, Review of intercity
passenger travel demand modelling: mid-60's to the mid-80's: The
Transportation Center and Department of Civil Engineering,
Northwestern University, 1984.
[26] P. D. Allison, Logistic regression using SAS: Theory and application:
SAS Institute, 1999, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC.
[27] D. R. Cox, "Regression models and life-tables," Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), pp. 187-220, 1972.
[28] D. G. Kleinbaum, L. L. Kupper, and K.E. Muller, Applied Regression
Analysis and Other Multivariable Methods, Duxbury Pr. 2007.
[29] S. N. Aljarad, "Disaggregate mode choice modeling for intercity nonbusiness
travelers in the Saudi Arabia-Bahrain corridor," Unpublished
Ph.D. Dissertation, Indiana University, Bloomington, 1993.
[30] C. P. Kumar, D. Basu, and B. Maitra, "Modeling generalized cost of
travel for rural bus users: a case study," Journal of Public
Transportation, vol. 7, pp. 59-72, 2004.
[31] P. K. Mukala and M. Chunchu, "Mode choice modelling for intercity
transportation in India: A case of Guwahati to five metro cities."
International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering, vol. 04, no. 06
SPL, pp. 364-374, 2011.
[32] W. Elias, G. L. Newmark, and Y. Shiftan, "Gender and travel behavior
in two Arab communities in Israel," Transportation Research Record:
Journal of the Transportation Research Board, vol. 2067, pp. 75-83,
2008.
[33] H. M. Al-Amadi, G. Ergun, N. T. Ratrout, and S.H. Al-Senan, “Travel
Mode Choice Modelling for AUMRA Tips within Saudi Arabia,” The
fourth Saudi engineering conference, vol. 3, 1995.
[34] U. Riza, "Urban Transport Management System," Engineering Faculty,
UKM IRPA 0, pp. 4-02, 2004.
[35] R. Liu and G. Li, "The subjective values of safety and security in the
context of intercity travel," in Transportation Research Board 83 rd
Annual Meeting Preprint CD-ROM, 2004.
[36] D. B. Jung, T. Nishimura, and Y. Hino, "Analysis of travel mode choice
models considering the subjective indicators of alternatives," Memoirs of
the Faculty of Engineering Osaka City University, vol. 36, pp. 39-46,
1995.
[37] H. M. Al-Ahmadi, "Development of Intercity Mode Choice Models for
Saudi Arabia," Engineering Sciences, vol. 17, pp. 3-20, 2006.
[38] C. Ruijgrok, "Disaggregate choice models: an evaluation," New
Developments in Modelling Travel Demand and Urban Systems,
Westmead, UK: Saxon House, pp. 13-37, 1979.
[39] D. McFadden, Quantitative methods for analyzing travel behavior of
individuals: some recent developments: Ch. 13. Behavioural Travel
Modelling. London, UK: Groom Helm Ltd, 1979.
[40] R. Mackett, and A. Ahern, "Potential for mode transfer of short trips:
Report on the analysis of the survey results," A contract carried out for
the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. Centre
for Transport Studies. University College London.
[41] E. Beimborn, "An examination of the effects of the access portion of a
trip upon an intercity mode choice," Dissertation, Northwestern
University, Evanston, Ill. 1968.
[42] G. Leake, and J. Underwood, "An inter‐city terminal access modal
choice model," Transportation Planning and Technology, vol. 4, pp. 11-
21, 1977.
[43] B. D. Spear, "An Analysis of the Demand for Airport Bus Services at
Washington National and Dulles International Airports," DTIC
Document, Cambridge, Mass.: US Department of Transportation,
Transportation Systems Center, 1984.
[44] E. J. Miller, "The trouble with intercity travel demand models,"
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation
Research Board, vol. 1895, pp. 94-101, 2004.
[45] D. A. Hensher, and L. W. Johnson, "Applied discrete choice modelling,"
London: Croom Helm, 1981.</p>
@article{"International Journal of Architectural, Civil and Construction Sciences:51984", author = "Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen and Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi and Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat", title = "Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya", abstract = "In the planning point of view, it is essential to have
mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation
systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as
against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and
socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to
recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models,
for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya.
Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been
formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in
Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide
revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The
model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work,
social and recreational). The variables of the model have been
predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for
model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors
in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About
two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the
remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is
the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s
mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was
successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the
overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation.
The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive
to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of
modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various
travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to
planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and
determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for
intercity travel.
", keywords = "Multinomial logit model, improved intercity
transport, intercity mode-choice behavior, disaggregate analysis.", volume = "7", number = "9", pages = "634-10", }
