Forecasting Malaria Cases in Bujumbura

The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Choice of Efficient Information System with Service-Oriented Architecture using Multiple Criteria Threshold Algorithms (With Practical Example)

Author presents the results of a study conducted to identify criteria of efficient information system (IS) with serviceoriented architecture (SOA) realization and proposes a ranking method to evaluate SOA information systems using a set of architecture quality criteria before the systems are implemented. The method is used to compare 7 SOA projects and ranking result for SOA efficiency of the projects is provided. The choice of SOA realization project depends on following criteria categories: IS internal work and organization, SOA policies, guidelines and change management, processes and business services readiness, risk management and mitigation. The last criteria category was analyzed on the basis of projects statistics.

Prospects, Problems of Marketing Research and Data Mining in Turkey

The objective of this paper is to review and assess the methodological issues and problems in marketing research, data and knowledge mining in Turkey. As a summary, academic marketing research publications in Turkey have significant problems. The most vital problem seems to be related with modeling. Most of the publications had major weaknesses in modeling. There were also, serious problems regarding measurement and scaling, sampling and analyses. Analyses myopia seems to be the most important problem for young academia in Turkey. Another very important finding is the lack of publications on data and knowledge mining in the academic world.

Existence and Uniqueness of Periodic Solution for a Discrete-time SIR Epidemic Model with Time Delays and Impulses

In this paper, a discrete-time SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, time delays and impulses is investigated. Sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of periodic solutions are obtained by using contraction theorem and inequality techniques. An example is employed to illustrate our results.

Design Optimization for Efficient Erbium-Doped Fiber Amplifiers

The exact gain shape profile of erbium doped fiber amplifiers (EDFA`s) are depends on fiber length and Er3 ion densities. This paper optimized several of erbium doped fiber parameters to obtain high performance characteristic at pump wavelengths of λp= 980 nm and λs= 1550 nm for three different pump powers. The maximum gain obtained for pump powers (10, 30 and 50mw) is nearly (19, 30 and 33 dB) at optimizations. The required numerical aperture NA to obtain maximum gain becomes less when pump power increased. The amplifier gain is increase when Er+3doped near the center of the fiber core. The simulation has been done by using optisystem 5.0 software (CAD for Photonics, a license product of a Canadian based company) at 2.5 Gbps.

Fuzzy Rules Emulated Network Adaptive Controller with Unfixed Learning Rate for a Class of Unknown Discrete-time Nonlinear Systems

A direct adaptive controller for a class of unknown nonlinear discrete-time systems is presented in this article. The proposed controller is constructed by fuzzy rules emulated network (FREN). With its simple structure, the human knowledge about the plant is transferred to be if-then rules for setting the network. These adjustable parameters inside FREN are tuned by the learning mechanism with time varying step size or learning rate. The variation of learning rate is introduced by main theorem to improve the system performance and stabilization. Furthermore, the boundary of adjustable parameters is guaranteed through the on-line learning and membership functions properties. The validation of the theoretical findings is represented by some illustrated examples.

A Novel Multiplex Real-Time PCR Assay Using TaqMan MGB Probes for Rapid Detection of Trisomy 21

Cytogenetic analysis still remains the gold standard method for prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21 (Down syndrome, DS). Nevertheless, the conventional cytogenetic analysis needs live cultured cells and is too time-consuming for clinical application. In contrast, molecular methods such as FISH, QF-PCR, MLPA and quantitative Real-time PCR are rapid assays with results available in 24h. In the present study, we have successfully used a novel MGB TaqMan probe-based real time PCR assay for rapid diagnosis of trisomy 21 status in Down syndrome samples. We have also compared the results of this molecular method with corresponding results obtained by the cytogenetic analysis. Blood samples obtained from DS patients (n=25) and normal controls (n=20) were tested by quantitative Real-time PCR in parallel to standard G-banding analysis. Genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral blood lymphocytes. A high precision TaqMan probe quantitative Real-time PCR assay was developed to determine the gene dosage of DSCAM (target gene on 21q22.2) relative to PMP22 (reference gene on 17p11.2). The DSCAM/PMP22 ratio was calculated according to the formula; ratio=2 -ΔΔCT. The quantitative Real-time PCR was able to distinguish between trisomy 21 samples and normal controls with the gene ratios of 1.49±0.13 and 1.03±0.04 respectively (p value

Gender Differences of Elementary Prospective Teachers in Mathematical Beliefs and Mathematics Teaching Anxiety

In this study, any possible differences between mathematics beliefs and anxiety of prospective elementary mathematics teachers have been investigated according to their gender. In this purpose, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th grade students from a Government University in Turkey were selected as a sample. Mathematics Teaching Anxiety Scale (MATAS) and Beliefs About Mathematics Survey (BAMS) has been used as data collection tools. As a result of the study, it has been observed that prospective male teachers have more instrumentalist approach in learning mathematics than females according to their mathematical beliefs. On the other hand, females have more mathematics teaching anxiety than males especially, for subject knowledge in mathematics and selfconfidence.

Adsorptive Removal of Vapors of Toxic Sulfur Compounds using Activated Carbons

Adsorption of CS2 vapors has been studied on different types of activated carbons obtained from different source raw materials. The activated carbons have different surface areas and are associated with varying amounts of the carbon-oxygen surface groups. The adsorption of CS2 vapors is not directly related to surface area, but is considerably influenced by the presence of carbonoxygen surface groups. The adsorption decreases on increasing the amount of carbon-oxygen surface groups on oxidation and increases when these surface groups are eliminated on degassing. The adsorption is maximum in case of the 950°-degassed carbon sample which is almost completely free of any associated oxygen. The kinetic data as analysed by Empirical diffusion model and Linear driving force mass transfer model indicate that the adsorption does not involve Fickian diffusion but may be considered as a pseudo first order mass transfer process. The activation energy of adsorption and isosteric enthalpies of adsorption indicate that the adsorption does not involve interaction between CS2 and carbon-oxygen surface groups, but hydrophobic interactions between CS2 and C-C atoms in the carbon lattice.

Effect of Heat Treatment on the Portevin-Le Chatelier Effect of Al-2.5%Mg Alloy

An experimental study is presented on the effect of microstructural change on the Portevin-Le Chatelier effect behaviour of Al-2.5%Mg alloy. Tensile tests are performed on the as received and heat treated (at 400 ºC for 16 hours) samples for a wide range of strain rates. The serrations observed in the stress-time curve are investigated from statistical analysis point of view. Microstructures of the samples are characterized by optical metallography and X-ray diffraction. It is found that the excess vacancy generated due to heat treatment leads to decrease in the strain rate sensitivity and the increase in the number of stress drop occurrences per unit time during the PLC effect. The microstructural parameters like domain size, dislocation density have no appreciable effect on the PLC effect as far as the statistical behavior of the serrations is considered.

FWM Wavelength Conversion Analysis in a 3-Integrated Portion SOA and DFB Laser using Coupled Wave Approach and FD-BPM Method

In this paper we have numerically analyzed terahertzrange wavelength conversion using nondegenerate four wave mixing (NDFWM) in a SOA integrated DFB laser (experiments reported both in MIT electronics and Fujitsu research laboratories). For analyzing semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA), we use finitedifference beam propagation method (FDBPM) based on modified nonlinear SchrÖdinger equation and for distributed feedback (DFB) laser we use coupled wave approach. We investigated wavelength conversion up to 4THz probe-pump detuning with conversion efficiency -5dB in 1THz probe-pump detuning for a SOA integrated quantum-well

Cellular Phone Users- Willingness to Shop Online

This study aims to identify cellular phone users- shopping motivating factors towards online shopping. 100 university students located in Klang Valley, Malaysia were involved as the respondents. They were required to complete a set of questionnaire and had to own a cellular phone in order to be selected as sample in this study. Three from five proposed hypotheses were supported: purchasing information, shopping utilities and service quality. As a result, marketers and retailers should concentrate more on the less important factors in order to encourage and create willingness of the consumers to purchase online. Recommendation for future research is also presented.

Antioxidant Components of Fumaria Species(Papaveraceae)

The genus Fumaria L. (Papaveraceae) in Iran comprises 8 species with a vast medicinal use in Asian folk medicine. These herbs are considered to be useful in the treatment of gastrointestinal disease and skin disorders. Antioxidant activities of alkaloids and phenolic extracts of these species had been studied previously. These species are: F. officinalis, F. parviflora, F. asepala, F. densiflora, F. schleicheri, F. vaillantii and F. indica. More than 50 populations of Fumaria species were sampled from nature. In this study different fatty acids are extracted. Their picks were recorded by GC technique. This species contain some kind of fatty acids with antioxidant effects. A part of these lipids are phospholipids. As these are unsaturated fatty acids they may have industrial use as natural additive to cosmetics, dermal and oral medicines. The presences of different materials are discussed. Our studies for antioxidant effects of these substances are continued.

Presenting a Combinatorial Feature to Estimate Depth of Anesthesia

Determining depth of anesthesia is a challenging problem in the context of biomedical signal processing. Various methods have been suggested to determine a quantitative index as depth of anesthesia, but most of these methods suffer from high sensitivity during the surgery. A novel method based on energy scattering of samples in the wavelet domain is suggested to represent the basic content of electroencephalogram (EEG) signal. In this method, first EEG signal is decomposed into different sub-bands, then samples are squared and energy of samples sequence is constructed through each scale and time, which is normalized and finally entropy of the resulted sequences is suggested as a reliable index. Empirical Results showed that applying the proposed method to the EEG signals can classify the awake, moderate and deep anesthesia states similar to BIS.

Neural Network Imputation in Complex Survey Design

Missing data yields many analysis challenges. In case of complex survey design, in addition to dealing with missing data, researchers need to account for the sampling design to achieve useful inferences. Methods for incorporating sampling weights in neural network imputation were investigated to account for complex survey designs. An estimate of variance to account for the imputation uncertainty as well as the sampling design using neural networks will be provided. A simulation study was conducted to compare estimation results based on complete case analysis, multiple imputation using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and neural network imputation. Furthermore, a public-use dataset was used as an example to illustrate neural networks imputation under a complex survey design

Dry Sliding Wear Behavior of Epoxy-Rubber Dust Composites

Composite pins of rubber dust collected from tyre retreading centres of trucks, cars and buses etc.and epoxy with weight percentages of 10. 15, and 20 % of rubber (weight fractions of 9, 13 and 17 % respectively) have been prepared in house with the help of a split wooden mould. The pins were tested in a pin-on-disc wear monitor to determine the co-efficient of friction and weight losses with varying speeds, loads and time. The wear volume and wear rates have also been found out for all these three specimens.. It is observed that all the specimens have exhibited very low coefficient of friction and low wear rates under dry sliding condition. Out of the above three samples tested, the specimen with 10 % rubber dust by weight has shown lowest wear rates. However a peculiar result i.e decreasing trend has been obtained with 20% reinforcement of rubber in epoxy while rubbed against steel at varying speeds. This might have occurred due to high surface finish of the disc and formation of a thin transfer layer from the composite

Doping of Conveyor Belt Materials with Nanostructured Fillers to Adapt Innovative Performance Characteristics

The “conveyor belt" as a product represents a complex high performance component with a wide range of different applications. Further development of these highly complex components demands an integration of new technologies and new enhanced materials. In this context nanostructured fillers appear to have a more promising effect on the performance of the conveyor belt composite than conventional micro-scaled fillers. Within the project “DotTrans" nanostructured fillers, for example silicon dioxide, are used to optimize performance parameters of conveyor belt systems. The objective of the project includes operating parameters like energy consumption or friction characteristics as well as adaptive parameters like cut or wear resistance.

Design and Implementation of Rule-based Expert System for Fault Management

It has been defined that the “network is the system". This implies providing levels of service, reliability, predictability and availability that are commensurate with or better than those that individual computers provide today. To provide this requires integrated network management for interconnected networks of heterogeneous devices covering both the local campus. In this paper we are addressing a framework to effectively deal with this issue. It consists of components and interactions between them which are required to perform the service fault management. A real-world scenario is used to derive the requirements which have been applied to the component identification. An analysis of existing frameworks and approaches with respect to their applicability to the framework is also carried out.

Factors Related to Working Behavior

This paper aimed to study the factors that relate to working behavior of employees at Pakkred Municipality, Nonthaburi Province. A questionnaire was utilized as the tool in collecting information. Descriptive statistics included frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation. Independent- sample t- test, analysis of variance and Pearson Correlation were also used. The findings of this research revealed that the majority of the respondents were female, between 25- 35 years old, married, with a Bachelor degree. The average monthly salary of respondents was between 8,001- 12,000 Baht, and having about 4-7 years of working experience. Regarding the overall working motivation factors, the findings showed that interrelationship, respect, and acceptance were ranked as highly important factors, whereas motivation, remunerations & welfare, career growth, and working conditions were ranked as moderately important factors. Also, overall working behavior was ranked as high. The hypotheses testing revealed that different genders had a different working behavior and had a different way of working as a team, which was significant at the 0.05 confidence level, Moreover, there was a difference among employees with different monthly salary in working behavior, problem- solving and decision making, which all were significant at the 0.05 confidence level. Employees with different years of working experience were found to have work working behavior both individual and as a team at the statistical significance level of 0.01 and 0.05. The result of testing the relationship between motivation in overall working revealed that interrelationship, respect and acceptance from others, career growth, and working conditions related to working behavior at a moderate level, while motivation in performing duties and remunerations and welfares related to working behavior towards the same direction at a low level, with a statistical significance of 0.01.

Receive and Transmit Array Antenna Spacingand Their Effect on the Performance of SIMO and MIMO Systems by using an RCS Channel Model

In this paper, the effect of receive and/or transmit antenna spacing on the performance (BER vs. SNR) of multipleantenna systems is determined by using an RCS (Radar Cross Section) channel model. In this physical model, the scatterers existing in the propagation environment are modeled by their RCS so that the correlation of the receive signal complex amplitudes, i.e., both magnitude and phase, can be estimated. The proposed RCS channel model is then compared with classical models.