Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in
three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data
mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering
into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an
artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented
after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring
error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on
previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of
network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast
for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential
Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based
on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support
vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results
show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in
comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods'
stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of
clustering analysis is measured.
Abstract: The turbulent mixing of coolant streams of different
temperature and density can cause severe temperature fluctuations in
piping systems in nuclear reactors. In certain periodic contraction
cycles these conditions lead to thermal fatigue. The resulting aging
effect prompts investigation in how the mixing of flows over a sharp
temperature/density interface evolves. To study the fundamental
turbulent mixing phenomena in the presence of density gradients,
isokinetic (shear-free) mixing experiments are performed in a square
channel with Reynolds numbers ranging from 2-500 to 60-000.
Sucrose is used to create the density difference. A Wire Mesh Sensor
(WMS) is used to determine the concentration map of the flow in the
cross section. The mean interface width as a function of velocity,
density difference and distance from the mixing point are analyzed
based on traditional methods chosen for the purposes of
atmospheric/oceanic stratification analyses. A definition of the
mixing layer thickness more appropriate to thermal fatigue and based
on mixedness is devised. This definition shows that the thermal
fatigue risk assessed using simple mixing layer growth can be
misleading and why an approach that separates the effects of large
scale (turbulent) and small scale (molecular) mixing is necessary.
Abstract: Mobile agent has motivated the creation of a new
methodology for parallel computing. We introduce a methodology
for the creation of parallel applications on the network. The proposed
Mobile-Agent parallel processing framework uses multiple Javamobile
Agents. Each mobile agent can travel to the specified
machine in the network to perform its tasks. We also introduce the
concept of master agent, which is Java object capable of
implementing a particular task of the target application. Master agent
is dynamically assigns the task to mobile agents. We have developed
and tested a prototype application: Mobile Agent Based Parallel
Computing. Boosted by the inherited benefits of using Java and
Mobile Agents, our proposed methodology breaks the barriers
between the environments, and could potentially exploit in a parallel
manner all the available computational resources on the network.
This paper elaborates performance issues of a mobile agent for
parallel computing.
Abstract: This paper presents the results of the preliminary investigation of microwave (MW) irradiation pretreatments on the anaerobic digestion of food residues using biochemical methane potential (BMP) assays. Low solids systems with a total solids (TS) content ranging from 5.0-10.0% were analyzed. The inoculum to bulk mass of substrates to water ratio was 1:2:2 (mass basis). The experimental conditions for pretreatments were as follows: a control (no MW irradiation), two runs with MW irradiation for 15 and 30 minutes at 320 W, and another two runs with MW irradiation at 528 W for 30 and 60 minutes. The cumulative biogas production were 6.3 L and 8.7 L for 15min/320 W and 30min/320 W MW irradiation conditions, respectively, and 10.5 L and 11.4 L biogas for 30min/528 W and 60min/528 W, respectively, as compared to the control giving 5.8 L biogas. Both an increase in exposure time of irradiation and power of MW had increased the rate and yield of biogas. Singlefactor ANOVA tests (p
Abstract: The advent of multi-million gate Field Programmable
Gate Arrays (FPGAs) with hardware support for multiplication opens
an opportunity to recreate a significant portion of the front end of a
human cochlea using this technology. In this paper we describe the
implementation of the cochlear filter and show that it is entirely
suited to a single device XC3S500 FPGA implementation .The filter
gave a good fit to real time data with efficiency of hardware usage.
Abstract: Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.
Abstract: In the literature of fuzzy measures, there exist many
well known parametric and non-parametric measures, each with its
own merits and limitations. But our main emphasis is on
applications of these measures to a variety of disciplines. To extend
the scope of applications of these fuzzy measures to geometry, we
need some special fuzzy measures. In this communication, we have
introduced two new fuzzy measures involving trigonometric
functions and simultaneously provided their applications to obtain
the basic results already existing in the literature of geometry.
Abstract: Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on
costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water
demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task
because the forecast model should consider variations in economic
progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is
further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by
large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious
occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to
handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for
Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed
based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors-
distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying
variables such as household income, household density, and
city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected
number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.
Abstract: While the problem based learning (PBL) approach promotes unsupervised self-directed learning (SDL), many students experience difficulty juggling the role of being an information recipient and information seeker. Logbooks have been used to assess trainee doctors but not in other areas. This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of logbook for assessing SDL during PBL sessions in first year medical students. The log book included a learning checklist and knowledge and skills components. Comparisons with the baseline assessment of student performance in PBL and that at semester end after logbook intervention showed significant improvements in student performance (31.5 ± 8 vs. 17.7 ± 4.4; p
Abstract: Modeling of a heterogeneous industrial fixed bed
reactor for selective dehydrogenation of heavy paraffin with Pt-Sn-
Al2O3 catalyst has been the subject of current study. By applying
mass balance, momentum balance for appropriate element of reactor
and using pressure drop, rate and deactivation equations, a detailed
model of the reactor has been obtained. Mass balance equations have
been written for five different components. In order to estimate
reactor production by the passage of time, the reactor model which is
a set of partial differential equations, ordinary differential equations
and algebraic equations has been solved numerically.
Paraffins, olefins, dienes, aromatics and hydrogen mole percent as
a function of time and reactor radius have been found by numerical
solution of the model. Results of model have been compared with
industrial reactor data at different operation times. The comparison
successfully confirms validity of proposed model.
Abstract: Introducing survivability into embedded real-time system (ERTS) can improve the survivability power of the system. This paper mainly discusses about the survivability of ERTS. The first is the survivability origin of ERTS. The second is survivability analysis. According to the definition of survivability based on survivability specification and division of the entire survivability analysis process for ERTS, a survivability analysis profile is presented. The quantitative analysis model of this profile is emphasized and illuminated in detail, the quantifying analysis of system was showed helpful to evaluate system survivability more accurate. The third is platform design of survivability analysis. In terms of the profile, the analysis process is encapsulated and assembled into one platform, on which quantification, standardization and simplification of survivability analysis are all achieved. The fourth is survivability design. According to character of ERTS, strengthened design method is selected to realize system survivability design. Through the analysis of embedded mobile video-on-demand system, intrusion tolerant technology is introduced in whole survivability design.
Abstract: An ultrasound-assisted activation method for
electroless silver plating is presented in this study. When the
ultrasound was applied during the activation step, the amount of the Pd
species adsorbed on substrate surfaces was higher than that of sample
pretreated with a conventional activation process without ultrasound
irradiation. With this activation method, it was also shown that the
adsorbed Pd species with a size of about 5 nm were uniformly
distributed on the surfaces, thus a smooth and uniform coating on the
surfaces was obtained by subsequent electroless silver plating. The
samples after each step were characterized by AFM, XPS, FIB, and
SEM.
Abstract: Fats and oils are made of esterified hydrocarbons
(RCOOR-) and this work demonstrates the substitution of R by
multi-walled CNTs (MWNTs). The resultant materials are fluidic, oily,
electrically conducting and excellent lubricants. Esterified MWNTs
can also respond to magnetic field when tubules contain long segments
of Fe
Abstract: The paper reviews the relationship between spatial
and transportation planning in the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) region of Sub-Saharan Africa. It argues that
most urbanisation in the region has largely occurred subsequent to
the 1950s and, accordingly, urban development has been
profoundly and negatively affected by the (misguided) spatial and
institutional tenets of modernism. It demonstrates how a
considerable amount of the poor performance of these settlements
can be directly attributed to this. Two factors in particular about the
planning systems are emphasized: the way in which programmatic
land-use planning lies at the heart of both spatial and transportation
planning; and the way on which transportation and spatial planning
have been separated into independent processes. In the final
section, the paper identifies ways of improving the planning
system. Firstly, it identifies the performance qualities which
Southern African settlements should be seeking to achieve.
Secondly, it focuses on two necessary arenas of change: the need to
replace programmatic land-use planning practices with structuralspatial
approaches; and it makes a case for making urban corridors
a spatial focus of integrated planning, as a way of beginning the
restructuring and intensification of settlements which are currently
characterised by sprawl, fragmentation and separation
Abstract: Numerical simulations are performed for laminar
continuous and pulsed jets impinging on a surface in order to
investigate the effects of pulsing frequency on the heat transfer
characteristics. The time-averaged Nusselt number of pulsed jets is
larger in the impinging jet region as compared to the continuous jet,
while it is smaller in the outer wall jet region. At the stagnation point,
the mean and RMS Nusselt numbers become larger and smaller,
respectively, as the pulsing frequency increases. Unsteady behaviors
of vortical fluid motions and temperature field are also investigated to
understand the underlying mechanisms of heat transfer enhancement.
Abstract: This paper presents the impact study of GTO Controlled Series Capacitor (GCSC) parameters on measured impedance (Zseen) by MHO distance relays for single transmission line high voltage 220 kV in the presence of single phase to earth fault with fault resistance (RF). The study deals with a 220 kV single electrical transmission line of Eastern Algerian transmission networks at Group Sonelgaz (Algerian Company of Electrical and Gas) compensated by series Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) i.e. GCSC connected at midpoint of the transmission line. The transmitted active and reactive powers are controlled by three GCSC-s. The effects of maximum reactive power injected as well as injected maximum voltage by GCSC on distance relays measured impedance is treated. The simulations results investigate the effects of GCSC injected parameters: variable reactance (XGCSC), variable voltage (VGCSC) and reactive power injected (QGCSC) on measured resistance and reactance in the presence of earth fault with resistance fault varied between 5 to 50 Ω for three cases study.
Abstract: Risk of infectious disease outbreaks is related to the
hygiene among the population. To assess the actual risks and modify
the relevant emergency procedures if necessary, a hygiene survey
was conducted among undergraduate students on the Rhodes
University campus. Soap was available to 10.5% and only 26.8% of
the study participants followed proper hygiene in relation to food
consumption. This combination increases the risk of infectious
disease outbreaks at the campus. Around 83.6% were willing to wash
their hands if soap was provided. Procurement and availability of
soap in undergraduate residences on campus should be improved, as
the total cost is estimated at only 2000 USD per annum. Awareness
campaigns about food-related hygiene and the need for regular handwashing
with soap should be run among Rhodes University students.
If successful, rates of respiratory and hygiene-related diseases will be
decreased and emergency health management simplified.
Abstract: One of the criteria in production scheduling is Make
Span, minimizing this criteria causes more efficiently use of the
resources specially machinery and manpower. By assigning some
budget to some of the operations the operation time of these activities
reduces and affects the total completion time of all the operations
(Make Span). In this paper this issue is practiced in parallel flow
shops. At first we convert parallel flow shop to a network model and
by using a linear programming approach it is identified in order to
minimize make span (the completion time of the network) which
activities (operations) are better to absorb the predetermined and
limited budget. Minimizing the total completion time of all the
activities in the network is equivalent to minimizing make span in
production scheduling.
Abstract: This paper presents modeling and simulation of Grid Connected Photovoltaic (PV) system by using improved mathematical model. The model is used to study different parameter variations and effects on the PV array including operating temperature and solar irradiation level. In this paper stepped P&O algorithm is proposed for MPPT control. This algorithm will identify the suitable duty ratio in which the DC-DC converter should be operated to maximize the power output. Photo voltaic array with proposed stepped P&O-MPPT controller can operate in the maximum power point for the whole range of solar data (irradiance and temperature).
Abstract: This paper presents results of empirical studies that were conducted in enterprises from Podkarpackie Voivodeship (Poland). It shows the experiences of those enterprises resulting from implementing and improving the eco-innovativeness management that is formal Environmental Management System (EMS). This study shows the expected and obtained internal benefits which are the effects of a functioning EMS. The aim of this paper is to determine whether the information included in international theoretical studies concerning the benefits of implementing, functioning and improving formal EMS (which is based on the international standard ISO 14001) are confirmed by the effects of the enterprises- activities.