Abstract: Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of
predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index
(S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to
predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an
in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively
complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these
in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was
unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for
commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample
strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive
set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the
S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of
greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.
Abstract: This paper presents a regression model with
autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by
analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic
model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The
regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more
precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.