Abstract: It is commonly observed that aftershocks follow the mainshock. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and typically there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock–aftershock sequence. Usually, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding displacement as a function of seismic loading parameters, ground motion parameters, and site parameters but these models do not include the aftershocks. The seismic risks associated with the post-mainshock slopes ('damaged slopes') subjected to aftershocks is significant. This paper extends the empirical sliding displacement models for flexible slopes subjected to earthquake mainshock-aftershock sequences (a multi hazard approach). A dataset was developed using 144 pairs of as-recorded mainshock-aftershock sequences using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) database. The results reveal that the combination of mainshock and aftershock increases the seismic demand on slopes relative to the mainshock alone; thus, seismic risks are underestimated if aftershocks are neglected.
Abstract: This paper discusses the reaction of investors in the Taiwan stock market to the most probable unknown earnings-related information and the most probable known earnings-related information. As compared with the previous literature regarding the effect of an official announcement of earnings forecast revision, this paper further analyzes investors’ cognitive bias toward the unknown and known earnings-related information, and the role of media during the investors' reactions to the foresaid information shocks. The empirical results show that both the unknown and known earnings-related information provides useful information content for a stock market. In addition, cognitive bias and disposition effect are the behavioral pitfalls that commonly occur in the process of the investors' reactions to the earnings-related information. Finally, media coverage has a remarkable influence upon the investors' trading decisions.
Abstract: Farming households faces lots of disaster which contribute to endemic poverty. Anticipated increases in extreme weather events will exacerbate this. Primary data was administered to farming household using multi-stage random sampling technique. The result of the analysis shows that majority of the respondents (69.9%) are male, have mean household size, years of formal education and age of 5±1.14, 6±3.41, and 51.06±10.43 respectively. The major (48.9%) type of disaster experienced is flooding. Major coping mechanism adopted is sourcing for support from family and friends. Age, education, experience, access to extension agent, and mitigation control method contribute significantly to vulnerability to disaster. The major adaptation method (62.3%) is construction of drainage.
The study revealed that the coping mechanisms employed may become less effective as increasingly fragile livelihood systems struggle to withstand disaster shocks. Thus there is need for training of the farmers on measures to adapt to mitigate the shock from disasters
Abstract: This paper generalizes Yeh Lam-s shock model for
renewal shock arrivals and random threshold. Several interesting
statistical measures are explicitly obtained. A few special cases and
an optimal replacement problem are also discussed.
Abstract: A parametric study of a mixed-compression
supersonic inlet is performed and reported. The effects of inlet Mach
Numbers, varying from 4 to 10, and angle of attack, varying from 0
to 10, are reported for a constant inlet dynamic pressure. The paper
looked at the variations of mass flow rates through the inlet, gain in
entropy through the inlet, and the angles of the external oblique
shocks. The mass flow rates were found to decrease monotonically
with Mach numbers and increase with angle of attacks. On the other
hand the entropy gain through the inlet increased with increasing
Mach number and angle of attack. The variation in static pressure
was found to be identical from the inlet throat to the exit for Mach
number values higher than 6.
Abstract: Due to increased number of terrorist attacks in recent years, loads induced by explosions need to be incorporated in building designs. For safer performance of a structure, its foundation should have sufficient strength and stability. Therefore, prior to any reconstruction or rehabilitation of a building subjected to blast, it is important to examine adverse effects on the foundation caused by blast induced ground shocks. This paper evaluates the effects of a buried explosion on a pile foundation. It treats the dynamic response of the pile in saturated sand, using explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element software LS-DYNA. The blast induced wave propagation in the soil and the horizontal deformation of pile are presented and the results are discussed. Further, a parametric study is carried out to evaluate the effect of varying the explosive shape on the pile response. This information can be used to evaluate the vulnerability of piled foundations to credible blast events as well as develop guidance for their design.
Abstract: The electrical substation components are often subject to degradation due to over-voltage or over-current, caused by a short circuit or a lightning. A particular interest is given to the circuit breaker, regarding the importance of its function and its dangerous failure. This component degrades gradually due to the use, and it is also subject to the shock process resulted from the stress of isolating the fault when a short circuit occurs in the system. In this paper, based on failure mechanisms developments, the wear out of the circuit breaker contacts is modeled. The aim of this work is to evaluate its reliability and consequently its residual lifetime. The shock process is based on two random variables such as: the arrival of shocks and their magnitudes. The arrival of shocks was modeled using homogeneous Poisson process (HPP). By simulation, the dates of short-circuit arrivals were generated accompanied with their magnitudes. The same principle of simulation is applied to the amount of cumulative wear out contacts. The objective reached is to find the formulation of the wear function depending on the number of solicitations of the circuit breaker.
Abstract: A method is presented for using thermo-mechanical fatigue analysis as a tool in the design of automotive heat exchangers. Use of infra-red thermography to measure the real thermal history in the heat exchanger reduces the time necessary for calculating design parameters and improves prediction accuracy. Thermal shocks are the primary cause of heat exchanger damage. Thermo-mechanical simulation is based on the mean behavior of the aluminum tubes used in the heat exchanger. An energetic fatigue criterion is used to detect critical zones.
Abstract: In the paper a detailed analysis of the dynamic
response of a cooling tower shell to mining tremors originated from
two main regions of mining activity in Poland (Upper Silesian Coal
Basin and Legnica-Glogow Copper District) was presented. The
representative time histories registered in the both regions were used
as ground motion data in calculations of the dynamic response of the
structure. It was proved that the dynamic response of the shell is
strongly dependent not only on the level of vibration amplitudes but
on the dominant frequency range of the mining shock typical for the
mining region as well. Also a vertical component of vibrations
occurred to have considerable influence on the total dynamic
response of the shell. Finally, it turned out that non-uniformity of
kinematic excitation resulting from spatial variety of ground motion
plays a significant role in dynamic analysis of large-dimensional
shells under mining shocks.
Abstract: Within the new world order, the term “crisis" is nowadays familiar to companies. Organizations are experiencing conditions which are surprising, uncertain, often adverse and usually unstable. The companies, who grasp the importance of transformation within the information age, have felt the need to develop modern methods to achieve the ability to thrive despite severe shocks. Through strategically managing human resource and developing appropriate elements of human resource system, companies can be assured for resolving the crisis. In this paper the role of HR system on resolving crisis has been evaluated. To help accomplish this, an insight on previous strategic HRM literature and an introduction to the elements and relationship within HR systems has been presented. It also reviews different attitude around resilience in literature. It continues by reviewing three elements central to developing an organization-s capacity for crisis resolving and it will demonstrate how designing proper elements of HR system can lead the organizations to possess the ability for passing through crisis. Finally it will evaluate an Iranian Insurance organization in case of one of the three central elements (specific cognitive ability) and observe how successful they were on developing an effective HR system to be ready for facing crisis.
Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global
regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and
market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to
be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set
of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking
sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic
stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and
governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures.
Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential,
regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking
institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations,
system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well
as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two
approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at
the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks.
Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the
medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is
in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand
economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending
spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher
capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated
effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary
policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a
reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30
to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework
based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises.
Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute
to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first
part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking
system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second
part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed.
The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of
the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.
Abstract: The paper is dealing by testing of ceramic cutting
tools with an interrupted machining. Tests will be provided on fixture
– interrupted cut simulator. This simulator has 4 mouldings on
circumference and cutting edge is put a shocks during 1 revolution.
Criteria of tool wear are destruction of cutting tool or 6000 shocks.
Like testing cutting tool material will be products of Sandvik
Coromant 6190, 620, 650 and 670. Machined materials was be steels
15 128 (13MoCrV6). Cutting speed (408 m.min-1 and 580 m.min-1)
and cutting feed (0,15 mm; 0,2 mm; 0,25 mm and 0,3 mm) were
variable parameters and cutting depth was constant parameter.
Abstract: The European countries that during the past two
decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board
arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of
corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open
discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict
exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the
transition process towards the monetary union membership. The
focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of
a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global
crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the
stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with
limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and
monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave
enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis
management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal
consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically
unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them
(Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their
ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime
with another.
The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable
environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and
are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments,
these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a
combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite
their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long
term influence that the measures had on the national economy.
Abstract: This paper tries to shed light on the existence of a bank lending channel (BLC) in South Eastern European countries (SEE). Based on a VAR framework we test the responsiveness of credit supply to monetary policy shocks. By compiling a new data set and using the reserve requirement ratio, among others, as the policy instrument we measure the effectiveness of the BLC and the buffering effect of the banks in the SEE countries. The results indicate that loan supply is significantly affected by shifts in monetary policy, when demand factors are controlled. Furthermore, by analyzing the effect of the Greek banks in the region we conclude that Greek banks do buffer the negative effects of monetary policy transmission. By having a significant market share of the SEE-s banking markets we argue that Greek banks influence positively the economic growth of SEE countries.