Abstract: The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.
Abstract: This article provides empirical evidence on the effect
of domestic and international factors on the U.S. current account
deficit. Linear dynamic regression and vector autoregression models
are employed to estimate the relationships during the period from 1986
to 2011. The findings of this study suggest that the current and lagged
private saving rate and foreign current account for East Asian
economies have played a vital role in affecting the U.S. current
account. Additionally, using Granger causality tests and variance
decompositions, the change of the productivity growth and foreign
domestic demand are determined to influence significantly the change
of the U.S. current account. To summarize, the empirical relationship
between the U.S. current account deficit and its determinants is
sensitive to alternative regression models and specifications.